It can be difficult to become overly bullish on certain fantasy players with OTAs not yet underway, and depth charts four months from being established. Inevitably, players will swing (sometimes wildly) up and down my monthly Top 150 Rankings as we glean meaningful information from practice and beat writer reports. So this is very much a rough draft. A place to start.

As for criteria, keep in mind I place special value on non-quarterbacks I believe will be week-to-week difference makers in head-to-head fantasy matchups. Non-QBs who can swing scoring with monster box-score stats. Hence my aggressive ranking of Rob Gronkowski. Coming off a lost offseason due to a torn ACL, Gronk posted an 82-1,124-12 receiving line in 2014, scoring over two more points per game than the next best fantasy tight end (Antonio Gates). Still only 26 years old, Gronkowski is now enjoying the healthiest offseason of his NFL career.

I bump down quarterbacks because they are most replaceable. Almost like a fantasy defense, you can field a championship-caliber squad streaming quarterbacks as matchup plays week to week. Try doing that at other positions and you’re liable to end up with zeroes. Would I love to have Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers on my team? Yes. I’d just rather use my first- and second-round picks on RB1s and WR1s. Or Gronk.

There are many ways to win in fantasy football. This is the approach I like best.

First-Round Picks

1. Le’Veon Bell — Facing 3-game ban. Hoping appeal reduces it to 1-2.
2. Rob Gronkowski — The most dominant skill-position player in football.
3. Eddie Lacy — One missed game through two seasons, scoring 24 TDs.
4. Marshawn Lynch — 29 years old, but showing no signs of slowdown.
5. Jamaal Charles — Legs looked dead late in ’14. Cuff with Knile Davis.
6. DeMarco Murray — Still top-shelf RB1, but touches are a lock to dip.
7. Dez Bryant — With run game likely to regress, Dez’s targets will rise.
8. Julio Jones — Expect career year as WR1 in Kyle Shanahan‘s offense.
9. Antonio Brown — Splitting hairs with the top-five fantasy wideouts.
10. Demaryius Thomas — His last 3 fantasy finishes: WR4, WR2, WR5.
11. Odell Beckham — Likely to be drafted as the WR1 in many leagues.
12. C.J. Anderson — Not sweating job security. Kubiak’s next stud RB.

Second-Round Picks

13. Adrian Peterson — Man on a mission. Best Vikings O since Favre.
14. Arian Foster — Last year’s No. 3 back in fantasy points per game.
15. Matt Forte — Big 2014 YPC dip, lost Trestman. Turns 30 late in ’15.
16. Calvin Johnson — 30 in Sept. Has lost a step, but still a top-six WR.
17. Jeremy Hill — Sneaky bet to lead all running backs in rushing TDs.
18. LeSean McCoy — Still an RB1, but his situation is worse in Buffalo.
19. Alshon Jeffery — Will be Bears alpha WR opposite rookie White.
20. A.J. Green — Toe injury in ’14. Still went 69-1,041-6 in 13 games.
21. T.Y. Hilton — Has emerged as clear focus of Luck’s passing game.
22. Randall Cobb — Could get a bump if Jordy’s hip is problematic.
23. Mike Evans — Big upgrade at QB after 68-1,051-12 rookie season.
24. Jordy Nelson — Will rise if preseason reports on hip are positive.

Third-Round Picks

25. Justin Forsett — Should be a reception machine in Trestman’s O.
26. DeAndre Hopkins — Broke out as Texans’ No. 2. Is now the No. 1.
27. Mark Ingram — Saints are trying to build a bully featuring Ingram.
28. Jimmy Graham — Less volume in SEA, but still lots of TDs coming.
29. Andrew Luck — Usage machine with arguably NFL’s best weapons.
30. Jonathan Stewart — Panthers bellcow runner with DeAngelo gone.
31. Frank Gore — Expect spikes in receptions & touchdowns on Colts.
32. Melvin Gordon — Early ROY fave, but Woodhead will be involved.
33. Aaron Rodgers — Top-2 QB scorer in six of his last seven seasons.
34. Jordan Matthews — 70-1,118-10 pace over 2nd half of rookie year.
35. Emmanuel Sanders — More-balanced offense may hurt Sanders.
36. Alfred Morris — Pass-game zero, but WAS run game will improve.

Fourth-Round Picks

37. Brandin Cooks — 100+ catches is within Cooks’ range of outcomes.
38. Lamar Miller — Coming off career year. Workload still a bit shaky.
39. Kelvin Benjamin — Step back possible after 6th-most targets in ’14.
40. T.J. Yeldon — Already named starter, but enters bad O. Solid RB2.
41. Carlos Hyde — Disappointed as rookie. Fear Reggie Bush/Mike Davis.
42. Andre Johnson — Betting Andrew Luck sparks Johnson to WR2 year.
43. Julian Edelman — Catch totals of 105 and 92 the past two seasons.
44. C.J. Spiller — Could be a PPR stud in Bush/Sproles/P. Thomas role.
45. Latavius Murray — Post-draft “winner.” Competition is Helu/T-Rich.
46. Russell Wilson — Last year’s fantasy QB3 has added Jimmy Graham.
47. Peyton Manning — Way overdrafted in ’14. Will be value pick in ’15.
48. Brandon Marshall — Will be Jets’ No. 1 target in Chan Gailey spread.

Fifth-Round Picks

49. Golden Tate — 2014 production took big hit with Megatron healthy.
50. DeSean Jackson — Went 56-1,169-9 in first season under Jay Gruden.
51. Nelson Agholor — Maclin role. 190 targets missing from PHI offense.
52. Amari Cooper — Very little competition for targets in OAK offense.
53. Keenan Allen — Still Chargers clear No. 1. Gates turning 35, Floyd 34.
54. Ameer Abdullah — Should be Lions lead back no later than Week 5.
55. Isaiah Crowell — Favorite for early-down work behind elite O-Line.
56. Todd Gurley — How much will he play? May not help FF teams early.
57. Andre Ellington — Again lined up for feature back duties in Arizona.
58. Travis Kelce — Rare talent. Was top-8 fantasy TE in first NFL season.
59. Martellus Bennett — 90 catches in ’14. Should be No. 2 pass option.
60. Greg Olsen — Rookie Funchess may eat into Olsen’s targets slightly.

Sixth-Round Picks

61. Martavis Bryant — Double-digit TD upside if he secures No. 2 WR job.
62. Jeremy Maclin — WR1 in Philly to low-ceiling WR2 with Alex Smith.
63. Allen Robinson — Flashed big time as rookie. Can be target monster.
64. Sammy Watkins — Hip surgery, run-dominated offense, bad QB play.
65. Jarvis Landry — High-volume slot receiver with 85-reception floor.
66. Charles Johnson — Will play the Irvin/V-Jax role in Norv Turner‘s O.
67. Vincent Jackson — Fluky-low TD total (2) in 2014. A value pick in ’15.
68. Tom Brady — 39:11 TD-to-INT ratio in New England’s last 15 games.
69. Brandon LaFell — Role is secure coming off low-end WR2 season.
70. Tevin Coleman — Favorite for lead back work in Kyle Shanahan‘s O.
71. Anquan Boldin — Wins with “old man game.” Still the 49ers’ No. 1.
72. Torrey Smith — Could be lots of garbage time in San Fran this year.

Seventh-Round Picks

73. Mike Wallace — Will play Alvin Harper/Malcom Floyd role for Norv.
74. Rashad Jennings — Remains Giants No. 1 back with Vereen as COP.
75. Giovani Bernard — Exposed as change-up/passing-down RB in ’14.
76. Steve Smith Sr. — Role secure as high-volume target for Joe Flacco.
77. Eric Decker — Usage in question with Marshall/Devin Smith aboard.
78. Breshad Perriman — Big, fast, and massive opportunity in Baltimore.
79. Kevin White — No. 4 offensive option behind Forte/Alshon/Bennett.
80. Ben Roethlisberger — Quietly last year’s QB5. Steelers loaded at WR.
81. Cam Newton — Top-four fantasy QB in three of his first four seasons.
82. Antonio Gates — Old but still dominant in red zone. Last year’s TE2.
83. Roddy White — Can still play, but often injured & 34 in November.
84. Drew Brees — Short on weapons & passing volume may nosedive.

It can be difficult to become overly bullish on certain fantasy players with OTAs not yet underway, and depth charts four months from being established. Inevitably, players will swing (sometimes wildly) up and down my monthly Top 150 Rankings as we glean meaningful information from practice and beat writer reports. So this is very much a rough draft. A place to start.

As for criteria, keep in mind I place special value on non-quarterbacks I believe will be week-to-week difference makers in head-to-head fantasy matchups. Non-QBs who can swing scoring with monster box-score stats. Hence my aggressive ranking of Rob Gronkowski. Coming off a lost offseason due to a torn ACL, Gronk posted an 82-1,124-12 receiving line in 2014, scoring over two more points per game than the next best fantasy tight end (Antonio Gates). Still only 26 years old, Gronkowski is now enjoying the healthiest offseason of his NFL career.

I bump down quarterbacks because they are most replaceable. Almost like a fantasy defense, you can field a championship-caliber squad streaming quarterbacks as matchup plays week to week. Try doing that at other positions and you’re liable to end up with zeroes. Would I love to have Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers on my team? Yes. I’d just rather use my first- and second-round picks on RB1s and WR1s. Or Gronk.

There are many ways to win in fantasy football. This is the approach I like best.

First-Round Picks

1. Le’Veon Bell — Facing 3-game ban. Hoping appeal reduces it to 1-2.
2. Rob Gronkowski — The most dominant skill-position player in football.
3. Eddie Lacy — One missed game through two seasons, scoring 24 TDs.
4. Marshawn Lynch — 29 years old, but showing no signs of slowdown.
5. Jamaal Charles — Legs looked dead late in ’14. Cuff with Knile Davis.
6. DeMarco Murray — Still top-shelf RB1, but touches are a lock to dip.
7. Dez Bryant — With run game likely to regress, Dez’s targets will rise.
8. Julio Jones — Expect career year as WR1 in Kyle Shanahan‘s offense.
9. Antonio Brown — Splitting hairs with the top-five fantasy wideouts.
10. Demaryius Thomas — His last 3 fantasy finishes: WR4, WR2, WR5.
11. Odell Beckham — Likely to be drafted as the WR1 in many leagues.
12. C.J. Anderson — Not sweating job security. Kubiak’s next stud RB.

Second-Round Picks

13. Adrian Peterson — Man on a mission. Best Vikings O since Favre.
14. Arian Foster — Last year’s No. 3 back in fantasy points per game.
15. Matt Forte — Big 2014 YPC dip, lost Trestman. Turns 30 late in ’15.
16. Calvin Johnson — 30 in Sept. Has lost a step, but still a top-six WR.
17. Jeremy Hill — Sneaky bet to lead all running backs in rushing TDs.
18. LeSean McCoy — Still an RB1, but his situation is worse in Buffalo.
19. Alshon Jeffery — Will be Bears alpha WR opposite rookie White.
20. A.J. Green — Toe injury in ’14. Still went 69-1,041-6 in 13 games.
21. T.Y. Hilton — Has emerged as clear focus of Luck’s passing game.
22. Randall Cobb — Could get a bump if Jordy’s hip is problematic.
23. Mike Evans — Big upgrade at QB after 68-1,051-12 rookie season.
24. Jordy Nelson — Will rise if preseason reports on hip are positive.

Third-Round Picks

25. Justin Forsett — Should be a reception machine in Trestman’s O.
26. DeAndre Hopkins — Broke out as Texans’ No. 2. Is now the No. 1.
27. Mark Ingram — Saints are trying to build a bully featuring Ingram.
28. Jimmy Graham — Less volume in SEA, but still lots of TDs coming.
29. Andrew Luck — Usage machine with arguably NFL’s best weapons.
30. Jonathan Stewart — Panthers bellcow runner with DeAngelo gone.
31. Frank Gore — Expect spikes in receptions & touchdowns on Colts.
32. Melvin Gordon — Early ROY fave, but Woodhead will be involved.
33. Aaron Rodgers — Top-2 QB scorer in six of his last seven seasons.
34. Jordan Matthews — 70-1,118-10 pace over 2nd half of rookie year.
35. Emmanuel Sanders — More-balanced offense may hurt Sanders.
36. Alfred Morris — Pass-game zero, but WAS run game will improve.

Fourth-Round Picks

37. Brandin Cooks — 100+ catches is within Cooks’ range of outcomes.
38. Lamar Miller — Coming off career year. Workload still a bit shaky.
39. Kelvin Benjamin — Step back possible after 6th-most targets in ’14.
40. T.J. Yeldon — Already named starter, but enters bad O. Solid RB2.
41. Carlos Hyde — Disappointed as rookie. Fear Reggie Bush/Mike Davis.
42. Andre Johnson — Betting Andrew Luck sparks Johnson to WR2 year.
43. Julian Edelman — Catch totals of 105 and 92 the past two seasons.
44. C.J. Spiller — Could be a PPR stud in Bush/Sproles/P. Thomas role.
45. Latavius Murray — Post-draft “winner.” Competition is Helu/T-Rich.
46. Russell Wilson — Last year’s fantasy QB3 has added Jimmy Graham.
47. Peyton Manning — Way overdrafted in ’14. Will be value pick in ’15.
48. Brandon Marshall — Will be Jets’ No. 1 target in Chan Gailey spread.

Fifth-Round Picks

49. Golden Tate — 2014 production took big hit with Megatron healthy.
50. DeSean Jackson — Went 56-1,169-9 in first season under Jay Gruden.
51. Nelson Agholor — Maclin role. 190 targets missing from PHI offense.
52. Amari Cooper — Very little competition for targets in OAK offense.
53. Keenan Allen — Still Chargers clear No. 1. Gates turning 35, Floyd 34.
54. Ameer Abdullah — Should be Lions lead back no later than Week 5.
55. Isaiah Crowell — Favorite for early-down work behind elite O-Line.
56. Todd Gurley — How much will he play? May not help FF teams early.
57. Andre Ellington — Again lined up for feature back duties in Arizona.
58. Travis Kelce — Rare talent. Was top-8 fantasy TE in first NFL season.
59. Martellus Bennett — 90 catches in ’14. Should be No. 2 pass option.
60. Greg Olsen — Rookie Funchess may eat into Olsen’s targets slightly.

Sixth-Round Picks

61. Martavis Bryant — Double-digit TD upside if he secures No. 2 WR job.
62. Jeremy Maclin — WR1 in Philly to low-ceiling WR2 with Alex Smith.
63. Allen Robinson — Flashed big time as rookie. Can be target monster.
64. Sammy Watkins — Hip surgery, run-dominated offense, bad QB play.
65. Jarvis Landry — High-volume slot receiver with 85-reception floor.
66. Charles Johnson — Will play the Irvin/V-Jax role in Norv Turner‘s O.
67. Vincent Jackson — Fluky-low TD total (2) in 2014. A value pick in ’15.
68. Tom Brady — 39:11 TD-to-INT ratio in New England’s last 15 games.
69. Brandon LaFell — Role is secure coming off low-end WR2 season.
70. Tevin Coleman — Favorite for lead back work in Kyle Shanahan‘s O.
71. Anquan Boldin — Wins with “old man game.” Still the 49ers’ No. 1.
72. Torrey Smith — Could be lots of garbage time in San Fran this year.

Seventh-Round Picks

73. Mike Wallace — Will play Alvin Harper/Malcom Floyd role for Norv.
74. Rashad Jennings — Remains Giants No. 1 back with Vereen as COP.
75. Giovani Bernard — Exposed as change-up/passing-down RB in ’14.
76. Steve Smith Sr. — Role secure as high-volume target for Joe Flacco.
77. Eric Decker — Usage in question with Marshall/Devin Smith aboard.
78. Breshad Perriman — Big, fast, and massive opportunity in Baltimore.
79. Kevin White — No. 4 offensive option behind Forte/Alshon/Bennett.
80. Ben Roethlisberger — Quietly last year’s QB5. Steelers loaded at WR.
81. Cam Newton — Top-four fantasy QB in three of his first four seasons.
82. Antonio Gates — Old but still dominant in red zone. Last year’s TE2.
83. Roddy White — Can still play, but often injured & 34 in November.
84. Drew Brees — Short on weapons & passing volume may nosedive.

Eighth-Round Picks

85. LeGarrette Blount — Comfortably Pats top RB.
86. Joique Bell — Abdullah will take Joique’s job.
87. Tre Mason — Could still be early-season RB2.
88. Brian Quick — The clear 1A wideout for Rams.
89. Jason Witten — Cowboys are likely to throw a lot more this season.
90. Zach Ertz — Trust his role will grow. Top breakout TE candidate in ’14.
91. Kenny Stills — Top playmaker in MIA, but receiver corps is crowded.
92. Jordan Cameron — Injury-risk boom-bust pick with top-5 TE1 ceiling.
93. Julius Thomas — Guy to avoid in 2015, going from Peyton to Bortles.
94. Joseph Randle — Best back on DAL roster. Could rise quickly in camp.
95. Pierre Garcon — His ceiling is a pedestrian fantasy WR3 at this point.
96. Larry Fitzgerald — Hasn’t reached 1,000 yards since 2011. Turning 32.

Ninth-Round Picks

97. Michael Floyd — On a team where feeding him isn’t made a priority.
98. Terrance Williams — Targets could spike if Cowboys throw it more.
99. Kendall Wright — Limited ceiling, but likely to lead TEN in receiving.
100. Marvin Jones — Quiet draft “winner.” Should win Bengals WR2 job.
101. Rueben Randle — Nice value if Victor Cruz can’t come back strong.
102. John Brown — Outside chance to become Cards top target in ’15.
103. Darren McFadden — Talent is gone. Situation is worth a late stab.
104. Shane Vereen — Role-player passing-down back. Upgrade in PPR.
105. Ryan Mathews — Becomes top-5 fantasy RB1 if Murray goes down.
106. Charles Sims — Apparently the favorite to be Buccaneers’ No. 1 RB.
107. Dwayne Allen — Atop the “TD dependent” realm among tight ends.
108. Bishop Sankey — Was bad as a rookie. Rookie David Cobb is better.

Tenth-Round Picks

109. Josh Hill — A favorite of Sean Payton with a clear avenue to targets.
110. Devonta Freeman — Best suited to COP/passing-down back usage.
111. Ryan Tannehill — Fins are loaded with weapons. Ideal late QB pick.
112. Eli Manning — 27 TDs, 284-yard avg last 14 games. Year 2 of McAdoo.
113. Philip Rivers — Was playing at MVP level before 2014 back injury.
114. Matt Ryan — Weapons diminishing & pass-happy OC Koetter gone.
115. Tony Romo — More attempts good for FF, but would his play suffer?
116. Sam Bradford — Sanchez/Foles/Vick = 65 TDs last 2 years under Chip.
117. Matthew Stafford — Like him to bounce back, but only as a fringe QB1.
118. Dwayne Bowe — Sleeper for 80+ receptions as Josh McCown‘s 1A.
119. Davante Adams — Disappointed as rookie. Watch out for Jeff Janis.
120. Marques Colston — Has lost several steps, but still a starter in NO.

Eleventh-Round Picks

121. Percy Harvin — Figures to be gadget player for Ground-N-Pound Bills.
122. DeVante Parker — More Dynasty than re-draft value in crowded Miami.
123. Joe Flacco — Ravens will lean heavily on 2 rookie pass catchers in ’15.
124. Colin Kaepernick — Has regressed, but remains an intriguing QB2 pick.
125. Teddy Bridgewater — Way overhyped after 14-TD, 12-INT rookie year.
126. Jay Cutler — Worry about job security, but supporting cast still strong.
127. Doug Martin — Uncertain future in TB, but better runner than C. Sims.
128. Danny Woodhead — Benefits from MG3’s passing-game limitations.
129. Chris Ivory — Competing with Ridley, Zac Stacy, Bilal Powell in new O.
130. Jerick McKinnon — An injury to 30yo AP away from Vikings lead back.
131. David Cobb — If you don’t believe in Bishop Sankey, draft Cobb late.
132. Kyle Rudolph — Perennial disappointment should be free this year.

Twelfth-Round Picks

133. Larry Donnell — Another “TD dependent” low-end, low-ceiling TE1.
134. Heath Miller — Not a difference maker, but likely top 12-15 tight end.
135. Austin Seferian-Jenkins — I don’t think he’ll fully “break out” until ’16.
136. Reggie Bush — Will be 49ers pass-game specialist behind Carlos Hyde.
137. David Johnson — Larry Centers-type RB/FB/H-back behind Ellington.
138. Knile Davis — A Jamaal Charles injury away from every-week RB1.
139. Doug Baldwin — Jimmy Graham caps his already-low TD ceiling.
140. Malcom Floyd — Can still play, but is a low-volume 34-year-old WR.
141. Stevie Johnson — Sneaky bet for 65+ receptions in Eddie Royal role.
142. Dorial Green-Beckham — Megatalent destined for ’15 inconsistency.
143. Devin Funchess — Talented but raw. Probably a ceiling of 55 catches.
144. Coby Fleener — Influx of WR talent could hurt Fleener’s playing time.

Rounding Out the Top 150

145. Charles Clay — Lots of mouths to feed in run-devoted Bills offense.
146. Delanie Walker — Titans will be run-based team with a rookie QB.
147. Owen Daniels — Next to be “elevated” by Peyton? Going on 33yo.
148. Andy Dalton — Will probably be free in most leagues. Plus weapons.
149. Alex Smith — See Dalton. Kelce, Maclin, Conley, and Albert Wilson.
150. Victor Cruz — Avoid Cruz this year coming off torn patellar tendon.

Also Considered: Carson Palmer, Jameis Winston, Nick Foles, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Marcus Mariota; Roy Helu, Fred Jackson, Stevan Ridley, Javorius Allen, Andre Williams, Montee Ball, Ryan Williams, DeAngelo Williams, Jay Ajayi, Duke Johnson, Darren Sproles; Eddie Royal, Andrew Hawkins, Marqise Lee, Cecil Shorts, Markus Wheaton, Donte Moncrief, Albert Wilson; Jared Cook, Jace Amaro, Vernon Davis, Tyler Eifert, Jordan Reed, Mychal Rivera, Eric Ebron.