BDL’s 2014-15 NBA Playoff Previews: Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Clippers

How They Got Here

• Houston: What looked like a tough battle between in-state rivals ended up as a Rockets rout. The Dallas Mavericks gave the West’s No. 2 seed little of a fight in the first round, winning a sole game well after Houston’s advancement to the next round took on the air of inevitability. That pivotal moment happened some time during Game 2, when Rajon Rondo essentially chose to end his brief tenure as Mavs point guard and Josh Smith and Dwight Howard teamed up for roughly six dozen alley-oops as the Rockets grabbed the most convincing 12-point win in recent memory. The eventual Game 5 clincher completed an impressive series victory for the Rockets, who proved themselves to be much more than the sum of a bunch of James Harden free throws. The presumptive MVP runner-up showed well with 28.4 ppg on 46.5 percent shooting for the series, but these five games were defined by much more, including an apparent return to form for Howard and strong performances for role players like Smith and Corey Brewer. The only problem with it was that the Mavericks couldn’t defend the Rockets even before their Game 2 implosion and looked overmatched. Houston did their job, but they’ll face a sterner test in the conference semis.

• Los Angeles: How does one sum up the Clippers’ seven-game survival of the defending champion San Antonio Spurs? Billed as the most competitive series of the first round, in actuality it was one of the most thrilling, tight, and just plain good basketball series any of us are ever likely to see. Both the Clippers and Spurs played at a championship level (in this context, at least), with both teams and numerous players stepping up to make game-changing plays at both ends. Perhaps most crucially, those who ever doubted the Clippers’ resilience and resolve likely see things differently now. Doc Rivers’s team bounced back from a blowout loss in Game 3 and game-deciding miscues late in Games 2 and 5 to take the series via terrific showings in the final two games. Game 7 will deservedly get most of the attention when basketball fans look back on this series — it was a true classic capped by Chris Paul’s incredible last-second winner after playing the bulk of the game on one leg.

The series was so utterly titanic that it’s difficult to understand that the Clippers still have three series to go if they want to claim the franchise’s first title. It’s fair to wonder if the Spurs took too much out of them, particularly now that Paul’s overall health and availability are in question. Nevertheless, this team proved itself plenty capable of hanging with the elite. Blake Griffin played the best all-around ball of his career, DeAndre Jordan changed the game at both ends (sometimes not always for the best, via his free throw shooting), and role players stepped up in key spots. The Clippers certainly looked like a team that can play deep into the spring — they’ll just have to beat another really good team in this round before they achieve those goals.

Head to Head

The Clippers and Rocket split their season series, although none of the meetings feel especially representative of what we’re likely to see in this series. L.A. took the first on November 28 at Houston by 17 points as Harden attempted an uncharacteristically low 12 field goals and six free throws on his way to 16 points. Griffin dominated with 30 and 10, but he missed the next matchup on February 11 due to a staph infection in his right elbow. No matter — the Clippers won 110-95 as DeAndre Jordan was hacked into 26 free throw attempts. That was another weird game for Harden, who scored nine points on 12 shots.

Harden fared better when they met two weeks later for a 110-105 home Rockets win, but he still shot only 4-of-13 from the field for his 21 points. Griffin missed that one, too, although he returned from his injury for the fourth and final contest on March 15 at Staples Center. He was understandably limited and tentative and didn’t play much of a role in the Rockets’ 100-98 win. Harden was his usual self with 34 points on 17-of-18 from the line.

The common denominator between all these games is that Dwight Howard played in none of them due to his persistent knee issue. On the other hand, the Rockets had to face Griffin at his best just once, and he happened to put forth the game-deciding performance. If the 2-2 series means anything, it’s symbolic. Until we see all the best players on the court at the same time, it’s probably best to consider these teams evenly matched.

— Eric Freeman.

Likely Starting Lineups

Injuries forced Kevin McHale to juggle quite a bit, with Trevor Ariza acting as the lone constant in Houston’s 18 starting fives. After losing Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas just before the playoffs, McHale has turned to veteran Jason Terry alongside Harden in the backcourt and third-year man Terrence Jones, a former starter who missed 49 games due to injury, next to Howard and Ariza.

That five-man unit didn’t see much regular-season run, but it performed well, outscoring opponents by 25 points in 85 total minutes over 10 appearances. It decimated the Mavericks in Round 1, walloping Dallas by 42 points in 64 total minutes in Houston’s five-game victory.

Harden runs the show, dominating by slithering to the rim, drawing fouls in bunches and creating open looks for others; he averaged 28.4 points and 7.8 assists against Dallas and it felt almost perfunctory. Another Houston storyline — Howard looking healthy and explosive, soaring for swats and alley-oops while averaging 16.6 points, 13.8 rebounds and three blocks per game — drew much more attention.

Howard was a legitimate deterrent, locking down the lane and making the Mavs reconsider their shots. In Howard’s minutes, 26.5 percent of Dallas’ attempts came inside the restricted area; when he sat, that rose to 36.4 percent. When he played, 28.2 percent of the Mavericks’ shots came from midrange; when he sat, that fell to 18.5 percent. In other words, his mere presence shifted 10 percent of Dallas’ shots away from the rim. A full-force Dwight makes opponents think twice, and opponents that think twice can make mistakes, playing into the hands of a Houston attack that finished third in the NBA in points off turnovers this season.

Jones isn’t a full-fledged stretch four, but he’s clever off the dribble and attacking the basket, shooting just over eight free-throws per 36 minutes against Dallas. He also has the length, bulk and foot speed to complement Howard on defense. They only shared the floor for 178 minutes this season, but Houston allowed just 94.2 points per 100 possessions when they did, while grabbing 54 percent of available rebounds — both league-best-caliber marks. He’ll have his hands full with Griffin, but he’s got the tools to help Howard do battle with the Clippers’ monster front line. (Fellow long-armed lefty Smith, a revelation in Round 1, also figures to see lots of Griffin as McHale looks to quiet the All-Star.)

Terry has performed well next to Harden, perfectly comfortable parking himself in a corner to stretch the defense. He shot just over 40 percent on catch-and-shoot triples during the regular season, and nearly 47 percent in Round 1. Terry also has the playmaking savvy to keep the ball moving when his shot’s not there, and while he’s more glider than JET these days, he’s still got just enough juice to make opponents pay for inattention or overeager closeouts.

But while Dallas’ rotating point guards couldn’t overwhelm the 37-year-old Terry, even a one-legged CP3 — or off-the-dribble attackers Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers, or relentless half-court runner J.J. Redick — could expose his defensive shortcomings. If Terry’s getting gashed and McHale doesn’t believe likewise-long-in-the-tooth Pablo Prigioni would offer relief, he could opt to cross-match, putting Ariza or Brewer on whichever Clipper wing’s causing the most problems and hoping that the combination of a longer defender and a lurking Howard can shut down L.A.’s perimeter threats. Coming off an opening round that saw Houston win less by stopping Dallas than by outgunning them, defensive improvements are needed.

No NBA team relied on its starting five this season more than L.A., as Paul, Griffin, Jordan, Redick and Matt Barnes led all five-man units in floor time by more than 300 total minutes. It’s easy to understand why: they annihilated opponents by 17.7 points per 100 possessions, third-best among big-minute groups.

It’s also not surprising because, as discussed frequently here and elsewhere, the Clipper bench is awfully thin. That’s what makes Paul’s status after straining his left hamstring in Game 7 the single most important storyline of the series.

The Clippers have listed him as a game-time decision, and the expectation is that he’ll give it a go. If he comes up lame again, though, and can’t gut it out on Game 7 adrenaline this time, Doc will have to go into his lightly stocked cupboard and cook up enough playmaking to win. There’s not much evidence he can do that — L.A.’s offense was a staggering 19.5 points per 100 possessions worse with Paul off the floor this season.

But necessity is the mother of invention. If CP3 can’t go, Doc will have to use whatever ingredients he can find — a second helping of Blake facilitating from the elbows and post, an extra cup of Crawford, a few more tablespoons of Austin, perhaps even a dash of little-used Lester Hudson or exiled offense-first center Spencer Hawes — to get the Clips to Round 3 for the first time in franchise history. — Dan Devine

How Houston Can Win

Paul misses multiple games and is demonstrably hampered when he’s on the court. Griffin tires after having to add even more offensive responsibility following a sensational first round that saw him average 24.1 points, 13.1 rebounds and 7.4 assists in 41.1 minutes per game. Harden continues to march to the line. A healthy Howard and the Jones/Smith combo outplay Griffin, Jordan and a less-than-100-percent Glen Davis. Ariza and Brewer make a major two-way difference on the wing. — DD

How Los Angeles Can Win

Nonstop treatment keeps Paul looking mostly like himself. Griffin again plays like the best player in the series. Howard gets into foul trouble. Jordan doesn’t. Redick again makes life as tough on Harden offensively as he did during the regular season, and joins with Crawford and Rivers to take turn going off against a Rockets team that, minus Beverley, looks at least one perimeter defender short. — DD

Totally Subjective Entertainment Value Ranking: 9 out of 10. The Clippers looked absolutely gassed even before Saturday’s thrilling Game 7 victory. The team has been working without anything resembling a productive bench all season, and it’s safe to point out that Chris Paul has to work far harder than most other superstars when it comes to doing Chris Paul-type things. The Rockets, meanwhile, get to the line a whole hell of a lot and they feature perhaps the two best players that nobody enjoys watching in Dwight Howard and James Harden.

Something’s gotta move, though, and that’s why this will be a can’t-miss series. Harden is finally in the second round with a Rockets team he can call his own, and Paul has a chance at making the Conference finals for the first time as a Clipper. The striking variance between Houston’s seemingly unending depth and the Clippers’ somewhat laughable bench is enough to keep the nerds like us in line, and your dad is going to enjoy watching Dwight Howard bang like it’s 2011 all over again. Meanwhile, mom thinks Steve Ballmer is funny.

— Kelly Dwyer.

Prediction: Rockets in 7.