Rookie Shocker Specials: Miami’s Jay Ajayi one of five deep fantasy sleepers
In the fantasy football vernacular no word is misunderstood, misidentified or misused more than ‘sleeper.’
Similar to the grossly miswritten ‘ironic’ in the English language (Example: If a fan wearing a Josh Gordon jersey bumped into the Cleveland receiver at a 4/20 gathering, that isn’t ironic.), the term is thrown around too loosely, often attached to players drafted as starters in 10-team leagues.
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Generally speaking, self-described aficionados claim a ‘sleeper’ references generic players unbeknownst to the general gaming community. Throw PLAYER X out during your draft and someone is bound to blurt out, “WHO THE HELL IS THAT GUY?!”
The above definition is fair. However, in an age where information is readily available at the touch of a screen, any fantasy player with the tiniest ounce of gumption can uncover pertinent player information spewed by scouts, coaches and insiders. In the classic sense, the controversial word no longer applies.
But, for the sake of this exercise, allow me to suggest a quantifiable meaning. A ‘sleeper’ is a commodity available in the deep recesses of a draft, whether in fantasy (e.g. after pick No. 100 overall) or reality (e.g. Round 4 and beyond), that owns the potential to greatly exceed expectation.
Simple …
Day 1 of the NFL Draft is full of pomp and circumstance. Sharp-dressed college stars are lauded. Dreams are realized. Joyful tears from family members flow. However, as the event drags on, now over three ridiculous days, attention wanes. Lesser known picks receive little fanfare. Their odds of even making an NFL roster are long.
Still, values can be found, albeit rarely. Of the 1,050 drafted/undrafted rookies employed by NFL teams since 2000, 55 or 5.2 percent posted starter-worthy numbers Year 1 for fantasy owners. In other words, they finished at or inside QB1-QB12, RB-1RB24, WR1-WR36 and TE1-TE12, in points per game. Again, that’s ALL rookies. More specifically, only NINE from that group were selected in Round 4 or beyond of the NFL Draft. Pittsburgh hidden gem Martavis Bryant was the most recent to emerge from the shadows.
Yes, most owners would rather be forced to endure all 49 seasons of ‘The Real Housewives’ than spare even one draft pick on an unproven, unknown rookie, but the next Alfred Morris (sixth-round pick in 2012) or Marques Colston (seventh-rounder in 2006) could be one small gamble away.
Digging deep, here are my top-five first-year ‘sleepers’ capable of shocking Fantasyland this fall:
1. Jay Ajayi, Mia, RB
Projected Round/Auction Value: Round 7, $7-$10
Once thought to be a possible second-round pick, Ajayi’s stock went all Wile E. Coyote and plummeted off a cliff. A damning medical classified his knee, which he shredded in 2011, as ‘bone-on-bone,’ a red flag that gave GMs cold feet. As a result he slipped to the Dolphins in Round 5. Many insiders believe he may only be a ‘one contract’ RB, but Ajayi could be a burst of statistical sunshine on South Beach. It’s becoming increasingly clear Miami isn’t convinced Lamar Miller, who compiled 5.1 yards per carry last year, is their long-term option. Joe Philbin and Bill Lazor have made it no secret they desire a rotational backfield. Ajayi will give them that luxury. The Boise St. standout has the tools to be a three-down workhorse. He’s powerful, shifty and ultra-versatile. Incredibly, he’s the only player in FBS history to log 1,800 rushing and 500 receiving yards in a single season. With Miller in a contract year, it’s conceivable Ajayi will be a full-timer in 2016. As for this fall, expect him to start as a 10-15 touch per game contributor. However, one Miller miscue or misstep, and the rookie morphs into Jeremy Hill. In what should be a robust offense, he could threaten Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon and Tevin Coleman for first-year RB superiority if the cards fall right.
2. David Cobb, Ten, RB
Projected Round/Auction Value: Round 9, $4-$7
The Titans’ investment in another young RB is further proof the orginization is dissatisfied with Bishop Sankey. That feeling is completely justified. Last year, Sankey reeked of rotten liverwurst. Over one-quarter of his carries went for one, zero or negative yards. Equally putrid, he ranked near the bottom of the league in pass-blocking efficiency and breakaway percentage among RBs. When you can’t fend off Shonn Greene, that pretty much sums up your level of suckiness. Sankey will be given every opportunity to reclaim the starting job this summer, but Cobb is a viable threat. He’s a bit heavy-footed (4.81 40-yard dash), but the kid is a decisive, well-built runner who gained 54 percent of his yards after contact with Minnesota. In Ken Whisenhunt’s power scheme, he’s a perfect fit. Out of the gate, he should be deployed in goal-line packages with reasonable odds of becoming a full-timer by midseason. Stock up.
3. Javorious ‘Buck’ Allen, Bal, RB
Projected Round/Auction Value: Round 9, $4-$7
Later in your fantasy draft, it would be unwise to pass on this Buck. With only minor threats ahead of him on the depth chart outside Justin Forsett, the fourth-round pick could break camp in a meaningful role. His cutting ability, lateral agility, receiving skills and downhill burst are first-rate. In a zone-based Marc Trestman system, he has the potential to develop into a poor man’s Matt Forte. Recall while at USC, Allen led all draft-eligible RBs in yards per route run (1.71). In 30 games with the Trojans, he snagged 63 passes averaging a stout 11.3 yards per catch. After a resurgent campaign, Forsett is destined to enter the year as the unrivaled starter, but given his diminutive frame it’s plausible the Ravens work in Allen some 8-12 times per game. Tab him a high priority on cheat sheets, PPR owners.
4. Cameron Artis-Payne, Car, RB
Projected Round/Auction Value: Round 11, $3-$6
Artis-Payne doesn’t jump off the screen, but since Jonathan Stewart would likely suffer a catastrophic injury walking a Pomeranian, the rookie is a rusher of interest. The vet has missed 22 games in seven NFL seasons. The Auburn product is a prototype pounder. He’s a girthy downhill runner who typically dips his shoulder and plows for extra yardage. The youngster is by no means a burner (4.53 40-yard dash), but he owns enough speed to shoot around the edge. On the downside, he isn’t much of a receiving threat and, at this point, is a liability in pass protection. Still, the Carolina staff under Riverboat Ron has never been married to the idea of featuring a single back. Given Artis-Payne’s attacking style he should split early down work with Stewart and potentially wrest away goal-line touches. Even if that plays out, Cam Newton will undoubtedly inhibit his overall TD total. Best case scenario: Artis-Payne is this year’s Andre Williams.
5. Vince Mayle, Cle, WR
Projected Round/Auction Value: Round 13, $1-$3
Usually, Cleveland is the fastest route to fantasy death. Throw dollars at Browns and you’re sure to become the laughing stock of your league. However, Mayle may change the stereotype. Last year at Washington St, he was highly productive. He established school records in receptions (106) and yards (1,483). Most will say he was a product of Mike Leach’s pass-happy environment, an understandable perspective. Still, the former junior college hoopster has the size (6-foot-2, 224 pounds) and separation skills to make an instant impact. Yes, in Cleveland. Hey, it’s not like Webster Slaughter is still snagging passes for the Browns. Dwayne Bowe will enter the year as Josh McCown/Johnny Manziel’s primary weapon, but with a strong camp, Mayle could push Brian Hartline and Taylor Gabriel for playing time at WR2.
Other Rip Van Winkles: Jeremy Langord, Chi, RB, Mike Davis, SF, RB, Rashad Greene, Jax, WR, Jamison Crowder, Was, RB, Devante Davis, Phi, WR
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