Kentucky Derby 2015 expert picks – The Courier-Journal

JOHN ASHER, Vice President of Racing Communications at Churchill Downs

I am participating in my 34th consecutive Kentucky Derby.

The best field of horses I’ve personally seen in the Derby was the 2007 crop headed by Street Sense, Hard Spun and eventual two-time Horse of the Year Curlin. But I’ve never been more excited about a Derby I’ve witnessed than this group that includes at least eight horses that have the potential to be special — and a favorite in American Pharoah that appears to possess uncommon talent.

I’ve been late the dance in my belief that Bob Baffert’s colt will win Derby 141, but his work over the Churchill Downs track last night made me a believer.

Pick to win: American Pharoah. In an impressive and talented field, he’s the best — although untested — horse.

Also on the board: Many members in this impressive field have similar running styles, and some will not handle things well when forced out of their comfort zone. There’s plenty of speed to set up a big effort by the stretch-running Mubtaahij, who has a great chance to be the first Dubai-raced horse to win the Derby. Unbeaten Dortmund should be able to rally from just off the first flight, but his size is a concern in a 20-horse field. Firing Line has impressed since arriving at Churchill Downs and twice looked Dortmund in the eye. After an eventful spring, Frosted should be headed to his best race.

Longshot:Bolo was considered a grass horse early in his career, but has run well in a pair of dirt starts. Turf horses often find the Churchill Downs dirt course to be very friendly.

Throwing out: Carpe Diem. A strange choice because he was atop my Derby rankings for five months, but think he took the worst of it when he drew post position two.

Best bet: A trifecta key with American Pharoah on top of Mubtaahij, Dortmund, Firing Line, Frosted and Bolo.

SIMON BRAY, TVG analyst

I’ve been a racing analyst for TVG (www.tvg.com) since 2004. Prior to that, I was a thoroughbred trainer for seven years. This is the deepest Derby in years, as far as quality goes, and I think there’s seven horses that are legitimately capable of winning it. With that being said, I believe there’s a horse in here that could be a ‘once-in-a-lifetime horse.’

Pick to Win: American Pharoah. He is a tremendous talent, and we still haven’t seen his best. I expect him to flash that immense ability on Saturday.

Also on the Board: Materiality, Danzig Moon and Dortmund. All three have made a great impression this week at Churchill Downs.

Longshot: Far Right with a solid pace expected, he’s a deep closer who is capable of picking up some pieces late.

Throwing Out: Carpe Diem. His chances have been compromised with the post position draw (2). That’s a major hurdle for him from there.

Best Bet: With a strong sense that American Pharoah will flash his brilliance, I will key him on top in a trifecta box: Pharoah over Materiality, Danzig Moon, Dortmund, Firing Line and Far Right, over Materiality, Danzig Moon, Dortmund, Firing Line and Carpe Diem.

CATON BREDAR, analyst with TVG, HRTV and WAVE3 News

Working as an analyst and handicapper for the past 15 years has taught me to use workouts cautiously when figuring out the Derby, and not to get caught up in the hype and statistics. Handicap the pace scenario — which may be somewhat prone to a meltdown with several key speed types toward the inside — and handicap the horses. While the best horse doesn’t always win, the horse that can get the best trip almost always does.

Pick to win: Dortmund has enough tactical, natural speed to break well but he doesn’t have to lead to win. With a decent post and two closers on either side, the undefeated colt can get a good trip over a track he has already won over.

Also on the board: Firing Line came closer to beating Dortmund than anyone and is impressive looking on the track. Mubtaahij is a late runner who seems to be doing well and won at nearly the Derby distance. Frosted seems to be returning to his 2-year-old form since throat surgery and getting out of Florida.

Longshot: Danzig Moon looks tremendous training, is at home at Churchill Downs and should have no problem with the distance.

Throwing out: Ocho Ocho Ocho hasn’t been flourishing lately — and he drew the rail.

Best bet: Exacta box, Dortmund, Firing Line, Mubtaahij, Frosted, Danzig Moon.

JOSE CONTRERAS (@LosPonies), Brand Ambassador and handicapper at America’s Best Racing

My main approach towards the Kentucky Oaks will be who can repeat their best performance to date and who is getting better at the right time.

Pick to win: American Pharoah seems to be on another level and looks like he will be able to get a clear trip from his outside post. Has enough speed to stay close to the pace and has shown he can rate behind the speed.

Also on the board: Dortmund has shown tenacity and brilliance all the while improving each and every start, he owns some valuable local experience when he won by over seven lengths over this track. Firing Line has fired a good effort in every start and comes into this race off a sharp win that didn’t take much effort out of him.

Longshot: Mubtaahij showed a terrific burst of speed in his dominating UAE Derby win and he looks to be getting better. It’s tough to get a clear idea of how he will perform in his first local start but he looks to have some serious talent.

Throwing out: I’m throwing out Carpe Diem because of his post position. He’s one of the favorites but I just think he will have too much work to do early on to get away with a clean trip.

Best Bet: Exactas (18 with All & All with 18); Trifectas (8,18 with 6,8,10,11,12,18 with 6,8,10,11,12,18 & 6,8,10,11,12,18 with 8,18 with 6,8,10,11,12,18).

ED DEROSA, is a Cleveland native who works at Churchill Downs Inc. as director of communication for TwinSpires.com

I believe the hype that this is a really good group of horses, and when that happens I actually prefer the cream that has already risen to the top than to think they’re evenly matched enough to find a longshot.

People are quick to point out 2005 and 2009 as years when big bombs upset the apple cart, but look at some of the favorites in those years—Bellamy Road, Friesan Fire, and Pioneerof the Nile did nothing after their Derby tries. In years most people identify as strong Derby fields—1997, 2004,and 2007—the horses who were good ran good and kept running good.

So if American Pharoah or Dortmund win then I’d look for them (and those immediately behind them) to keep winning. If a big longshot wins, then the horses we thought were good probably weren’t to begin with.

Pick to win: Champion American Pharoah was the best horse last year, and I’ve seen nothing in his 3-year-old races to talk me off that view.

Also on the board: Frosted got the works package from trainer Kiaran McLaughlin before winning the TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial Stakes, and if that horse shows up instead of the one in the stretch of the Fountain of Youth then he’s a major player.

Longshot: Bolo was no match for Dortmund in his last two starts, but at 10 times the price in the Derby I’ll take a shot that the 1¹/₄ miles could help this one move forward and make some noise at a price.

Throwing out: Mubtaahij cannot win running five weeks after running in a race in Dubai with training at Arlington in-between.

Best bet: This is a difficult race to bet because American Pharoah and Dortmund are so obvious. Rather than take a stand against one or the other on most bets, I’ll key Frosted and Bolo with them. Even if both hit the exacta and tri if Frosted (and especially Bolo) do, too, then you’ll still do OK.

JASON FRAKES, The Courier-Journal

My full-time job is covering high school sports for The C-J, but for one month out of the year I get to pretend to be a turf writer. My handicapping career started with $2 show bets at Ellis Park and River Downs, and it’s been downhill ever since.

Pick to win: I’m going with undefeated Dortmund, mostly because I’d be afraid to tell him I’m picking someone else. Dude is huge!

Also on the board: Firing Line has pushed Dortmund twice, losing by a head both times. Distance is my lone concern.

Long shot: Something tells me Bolo will be coming late.

Throwing out: Carpe Diem has been nothing but impressive in his career, but that No. 2 post position is scary.

Best bet: How about $1 trifecta and superfecta boxes with Dortmund, American Pharoah, Firing Line and Bolo, which would be a total cost of $48. Also might sprinkle in some Materiality and Upstart on the bottom.

DAVID GRENING, New York correspondent for Daily Racing Form

I am attending my 24th Oaks and Derby, having previously worked for the Trentonian (N.J.) and New York Post. I have been with Daily Racing Form since 1998.

The favorite has won the Derby two straight years and five of the last eight years. But, in nine of the last 11 years, a 30-1 shot or higher has landed in the top four. Going to take that same approach this year and hope to get a big number in the exacta or trifecta.

Pick to win: American Pharoah is a deserving favorite and he’s won me over with his Arkansas Derby performance and subsequent training. Post 17 (after Stanford’s defection) won’t be a deterrent as he can break and get position.

Also on the board: Dortmund, my top choice most of the winter, can give Baffert a 1-2 finish. Looking for longshots to round out the top four and have been impressed with the way Danzig Moon and Bolo have looked in their training.

Longshot: International Star. For a horse who has won three graded stakes this year in as many starts, no one is talking about him. Figures to sit back and make a run and if the rail is open he won’t mind utilizing it.

Throwing out: Carpe Diem. The inside post combined with some quirky habits makes me leery of him in front of a large crowd, big field.

Best bet: Going to key American Pharoah in exactas and trifectas over Dortmund, Danzig Moon, Bolo, International Star, Frosted and Upstart.

GREGORY A. HALL, The Courier-Journal

I cover the business side of the horse industry for the newspaper I grew up reading and following the horses has been part of my life for as long as I’ve been breathing.

Pick to win: American Pharoah’s work at Churchill Downs was as breathtaking as it seemed effortless; he’s the most likely winner — barring a traffic issue – and stands to break the curse of Post Position 17.

Also on the board: Dortmund, Firing Line and Materiality will round out my superfecta bet.

Longshot: Tencendur has a bullet work over the track and is as big as Dortmund, so why not?

Throwing out: With due respect to the connections, if War Story hits the board, then I lose.

Best bet: In exactas, I will key American Pharoah and Dortmund over and under any horse that I think has a shot to hit the board.

TRIXIE HAMMER, co-founder and publisher of www.LadyandTheTrack.com, which specializes in delivering timely, easy-to-read news to beginners at the track

The favorite part of my job is interviewing trainers and owners about the funny characteristics behind the champion horses we all know and love. I’m hoping that Lady and The Track helps fans of all ages to feel empowered at the track. My best advice to women is, “Never place a bet with your lover’s money – it’s simply bad luck!”

Pick to win: I’m picking Dortmund to win the Kentucky Derby because to me he simply seems to be the strongest contender out there.

Also on the board: I never play superfectas but will add in show bets, with Frosted and Firing Line.

Longshot: Danzig Moon will be my longshot bet because he’s improved the most over the last few weeks.

Throwing out: I’m counting out Ocho Ocho Ocho, only because so many other horses appear much more comfortable on the track.

Best bet: Regardless of the odds, I’m a gal that likes to place win bets. In addition to a Dortmund win bet, I’ll play Firing Line, Frosted, and Danzig Moon to show.

J.J. HYSELL, inthemoneypost.com

I’ve been covering the Triple Crown since 1997. My specialty is pedigree analysis and tabbing rising stars on my website.

This year’s race is loaded with talent and it’s tough to narrow down. I’m opting with the late-rallying closers for the win.

Pick to win: Dortmund has impressed me since his allowance win over this surface, his two pre-Derby works were stellar, and he’s proven versatile.

Also on the board: International Star looks fabulous in his gallops over the surface, American Pharoah is a must-use and Frosted boasts a stamina pedigree.

Longshot: UAE Derby winner Mubtaahij appears to have adjusted well and Frammento is an interesting wild card.

Throwing out: Although he’s looked fine training at Churchill, I think this is too much, too soon for talented Materiality.

Best bet: I’ll be playing a trifecta box with Dortmund, International Star, American Pharoah and Frosted. I’ll add Mubtaahij and Carpe Diem for the superfecta.

JONATHAN KINCHEN (@UTBighair)

In January, I became the first player to get two entries at the National Handicapping Championship into the Final Table, netting $84,000.

The 2015 Kentucky Derby could potentially be the best field that has ever been assembled. Many will also argue that American Pharoah is the “best” or “most talented” horse in this field. I will take 2-1 on the “best horse” in the “best derby field.” What will happen behind American Pharoah is where you will find value.

Pick to win: American Pharoah has been impressive in every start minus the puzzling maiden debut. He has shown the ability to be on the pace and sit off the pace and he has received grand reviews about his morning workouts. He could be special and I am going to be on board.

Also on the board: Frosted, Firing Line and Mubtaahij are all very live horses and likely to hit the board. Frosted really impressed as a 2-year old running wide in the Remsen to get 2nd and impressed me even more in the Wood going farther than every other horse in the field. Firing Line has never run a bad race and has shown there isn’t much between him and Dortmund (4-1). Mubtaahij was super impressive in Dubai.

Longshot: Bolo has been knocking heads with likely second choice Dortmund.

Throwing out: Ocho Ocho Ocho and War Story. Ocho obviously has to overcome the No. 1 post, but I have also not heard great things about his morning training. War Story was a reach for me based on his form and his morning exercise has done nothing to change my intial thoughts.

Best bet: Any multi-race bets singling American Pharoah. $1 trifecta wheel American Pharoah with (Mubtaahij, Dortmund, Bolo, Firing Line, Frosted, Upstart) with (Tencendur, Danzig Moon, Mubtaahij, Dortmund, Bolo, Firing Line, Keen Ice, Frosted, Upstart) (costs $48) and a 50-cent trifecta wheel (Mubtaahij, Dortmund, Bolo, Firing Line, Frosted, Upstart) with Pharoah with (Tencendur, Danzig Moon, Mubtaahij, Dortmund, Bolo, Firing Line, Keen Ice, Frosted, Upstart) (costs $24).

JOE KRISTUFEK (@JoeyDaKRacing), Churchill Downs paddock host

I’m also the face of “Racing 101” for America’s Best Racing, a fan development specialist for Horse Racing Nation, the morning-line maker for Arlington Park and Kentucky Downs and the handicapper and racing writer for the Daily Herald newspaper in my native Chicago.

The Kentucky Derby is the only race that takes four months to handicap. As much as I wanted to pass on the Kool-Aid, I must admit I’m now guzzling it. In a deep and talented field, American Pharoah has the best chance to be special. That being said, the best horse doesn’t always win the Kentucky Derby.

Pick to win: American Pharoah’s Arkansas Derby win was beyond breathtaking and since arriving at Churchill Downs, he’s been absolutely perfect. Now he just has to overcome the gate break, the first turn and quite a few legitimate foes.

Also on the board: Dubai invader Mubtaahij is proven over distance and I think he’s the real deal. Dortmund is talented and battle-tested. Frosted’s Wood was really good.

Longshot: Danzig Moon and Tencendur for back end of gimmicks.

Throwing out: I’ve never been a big fan of Upstart, and Carpe Diem, who is a bit high-strung, drew a tough post.

Best bet: Conservative — Ladder WPS on Mubtaahij. Four-horse exacta box Pharoah, Mubtaahij, Dortmund and Frosted. Home run — Trifecta and superfecta using Pharoah and Mubtaahij on top with Dortmund, Frosted, Danzig Moon, Tencendur, Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Materiality, International Star and Stanford underneath.

JONATHAN LINTNER, The Courier-Journal

I’m in my third year covering the Kentucky Derby but just the second in which I’ve spent most mornings leading up to it on the Churchill Downs backside. Watching the training makes all the difference, so I’ll lean heavily on the eye test before heading to the window.

Pick to win: I rarely go with chalk, but I’m still taking American Pharoah. Try to catch him.

Also on the board: Really, really like the combo of Dortmund and Firing Line to hit the board. Their prep duels were sensational, and I think the California crop is a step above the rest. I’m looking for Mubtaahij to rally off the pace.

Longshot: Upstart’s 15-1 on the morning line, but I expect a better price on race day given the near-outside post. He’s the kind of horse I’d hate to ignore on my tickets, given I expect him to lay a bit off the pace like Firing Line and run strong at the end.

Throwing out: While American Pharoah and Dortmund were gearing down toward the wire in their last race, I saw Carpe Diem tiring out. Don’t like the post, either.

Best bet: I’ll box a trifecta including American Pharoah, Dortmund, Firing Line, Mubtaahij and Upstart. If the price is right, also going with some win money on Firing Line.

Picks continue below the video

This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.

Sharing is caring! Share this FreeWinningPicks post with your friends!