BDL’s 2014-15 NBA Playoff Previews: Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards
How They Got Here
• Atlanta: After rolling to the East’s No. 1 seed, many of us (present company included) expected the Hawks to make short work of the Brooklyn Nets. Instead, they looked like a team that hadn’t played many meaningful games over the season’s final month and needed some time to rev up.
They struggled to put Brooklyn away in Game 1, and needed late miscues by Deron Williams to hold onto Game 2. They managed just 83 points in a Game 3 loss and couldn’t control a vintage Williams in Game 4, leaving Coach of the Year Mike Budenholzer searching for answers to the tactical adjustments Brooklyn made to throw Atlanta off its game.
The Hawks responded, getting big games from center Al Horford, point guard Jeff Teague and Swiss Army knife swingman DeMarre Carroll to take Game 5 before stomping the Nets in Game 6. A Sunday afternoon tip in Atlanta after closing out in Brooklyn Friday night represents a quick turnaround, but given how comfortable the Hawks seemed to feel after Game 6, getting right back to work might be just fine by them.
• Washington: For the second straight spring, the Wizards began the playoffs on the road as the lower seed in the 4-vs.-5 matchup … and kicked their hosts’ teeth in.
When they stunned Chicago last year, though, the Wiz had been playing well heading into the playoffs, going 19-11 after the All-Star break. This time, they’d been a disaster, playing sub-.500 ball after Jan. 1. No matter.
The Wiz seized home-court advantage from the Raptors with an overtime win that saw Paul Pierce — who’d said before the playoffs that he didn’t think Toronto had the “it” factor that strikes fear into opponents — score a game-high 20 points. He did the bulk of his damage as a small-ball power forward, a role he’d played under Jason Kidd in Brooklyn last year but one in which Wizards coach Randy Wittman hadn’t often deployed him this season.
That adjustment wrecked the Raps, opening up driving lanes and shooting space for John Wall and Bradley Beal, who combined for 54 points in a Game 2 win that sent the Wiz home with a chance to close out. Pierce took Toronto’s heart with a Game 3 dagger before Washington breezed to a Game 4 blowout that got the memes flowing.
The only downside to the Wizards taking care of business so quickly is that they’ve had quite a layoff, with a full week passing between their last game and Sunday’s series-opener. The week off likely helped vets like Pierce, Nene and Marcin Gortat, but it could leave what became a well-oiled machine looking a bit rusty come Sunday.
It also left a lot of time for dreaming big. As the Wiz sat at home, they watched Kevin Love go down for the count, the Bulls get pushed to six and the Hawks look ordinary for four games. Maybe — just maybe — there’s a path to the NBA Finals for these Wizards. Their journey may end in Atlanta, but at this point, we doubt the road-warrior Wiz at our own peril.
Head-to-Head
Washington’s only win against the Hawks came in the final week of the season against backups, as Budenholzer, having already clinched everything the Hawks could have, gave his starters the night off. Atlanta swept the other three mostly-full-strength meetings.
The Hawks scored a 106-102 November win in D.C., overcoming poor perimeter shooting thanks to Teague’s dribble penetration (7-for-14 in the paint, 12-for-14 at the foul line, a game-high 28 points) and big contributions from reserves Mike Scott and Shelvin Mack, who scored 24 of their 30 points after halftime. Wall and Beal (in his fourth game back after suffering a fractured left wrist) combined for 12 of Washington’s 20 turnovers, and the Wiz struggled to score inside without Nene, who missed the game with plantar fasciitis in his right foot.
The two teams wouldn’t meet again until mid-January, after the Hawks had locked into the groove that propelled them to the top of the East. Atlanta mopped the floor with the Wiz at Philips Arena, scoring 31 points off 20 Wizards turnovers, shooting 16-for-31 from beyond the arc, and steamrolling Washington with a 33-12 fourth quarter to notch a 31-point blowout.
Three and a half weeks later, one game after having their franchise-record winning streak stopped at 19 games, the Hawks got back in the win column against Washington. They celebrated having their entire starting five named the East’s player of the month with a 105-96 win behind 26 points and eight assists from Teague.
During those first three games, Atlanta scored and clamped down on Washington at rates that would have ranked No. 1 in the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency, outscoring the Wiz by 15.5 points per 100 possessions. Translation: when the Hawks’ starters played, Atlanta lit the Wizards up like a Christmas tree.
But the Hawks crushed the Nets by an even bigger margin (18.5 points-per-100) during the regular season, and we saw how much trouble they had in Round 1. Similarly, the Wizards went 0-3 against Toronto this season, and that meant bupkis. Can they pull off another reversal of fortune here?
Likely Starting Lineups
For the Hawks, it’s Horford, Teague, Carroll, Kyle Korver and Paul Millsap. Only the Clippers’ starting five logged more regular-season minutes together than this group, which outscored its opposition by an elite 8.1 points per 100 possessions.
Atlanta struggled more than expected against Brooklyn, with Millsap and Horford dealing with injuries and Korver seeming unable to get loose on the perimeter. But the Hawks’ starting five still torched the Nets, outscoring Brooklyn by 46 points in 110 minutes. Most of that damage came in Games 5 and 6, as Horford returned to form and Millsap turned in one of his best performances in months.
Budenholzer does rely on his bench, seeking playmaking from Dennis Schröder, floor-spacing from stretch bigs Scott and Pero Antic, and active wing defense from Kent Bazemore (especially with Thabo Sefolosha now out for the season). But it’s the starters who set the course. When they’re clicking, they blow opponents away. When they’re not, Atlanta can be had.
Washington starts Wall and Beal alongisde Pierce at the three, with Nene and Gortat up front. That lineup logged the league’s fifth-most minutes, and ranked among the NBA’s elite units, outscoring opponents by 7.4 points-per-100, a top-10 mark among five-man groups that logged at least 300 minutes.
There’s a commendable simplicity to the way the Wizards punch holes in opponents. Gortat and Nene lock down the paint, clear the glass, and score around the basket. Pierce and Beal space the floor and provide secondary playmaking. And Wall conducts the orchestra, making beautiful music with his bigs (especially Gortat) in the pick-and-roll while using his quickness and court vision to bend coverages, create open lanes and complete daring passes.
The Wizards’ starters produced baskets at a rate that would’ve ranked seventh in the NBA in offensive efficiency this season (just below the Hawks’ full-season mark) while allowing just 98.7 points per 100 possessions, which would’ve trailed only the Warriors. It might not be the flashiest thing in the world, this combination of lane-locking and long 2s, but by and large, it’s worked.
What really worked, though, was downsizing against Toronto. Second-year swingman Otto Porter made life miserable on DeMar DeRozan, while Pierce became a bombs-away stretch four, jacking 7.6 3-pointers per 36 minutes of floor time. (Wittman also used Drew Gooden in that capacity off the bench; he chipped in nine points and 6.8 rebounds in 20.5 minutes per game, shooting 50 percent from 3.)
Pierce’s shooting pulled the Raptors’ fours out of the lane, creating more space for Wall. Gortat and Nene ate well off his feeds, finishing first and second in Round 1 in points scored per possession as the roll man in the pick-and-roll, according to Synergy Sports Technology. Lineups with either Gortat or Nene alongside Pierce, Porter, Beal and Wall outscored Toronto by 28 points in 40 minutes, helping tilt the first three games against the Raps.
Whether Wittman thinks going small will work as well against Atlanta remains to be seen. But its success puts another tactical arrow in his quiver, and gives Budenholzer another look for which to prepare.
Matchups to Watch
• Wall vs. Teague. Fresh off his dismantling of fellow Eastern Conference All-Star starter Kyle Lowry, Wall now battles another East All-Star point guard. Neither Wall nor Teague shot well in Round 1, but both controlled their respective series with strong floor games. Whichever one can repeat that trick here will give his squad an edge.
Wall led playoff playmakers by a mile with his 30 points per game created by assist during Round 1, according to SportVU player tracking data. But Teague ranked third (18.5 points created per game) and gave his team what it needed to close out Brooklyn — 20 points, including nine late, to help seal Game 5, and 13 assists with one turnover in 23 1/2 minutes in Game 6, earning praise from his teammates and his coach for controlling the game without scoring a point.
During the regular season, Wall and Teague mostly guarded one another, working around ball screens to keep the other from gaining the lane and forcing help rotations. While Wall’s defensive work tends to draw more praise, thanks to the highlight-reel chasedown blocks he produces, Teague actually graded out higher in stalling opponents on isolation trips and in the pick-and-roll, per Synergy, and wasn’t far behind Wall in points per possession allowed off screens.
Those fancy numbers haven’t amounted to much in the Hawks’ attempts to hold Wall down this season, though. The former No. 1 overall pick averaged 20 points, 10 assists and 5.7 rebounds in the three games in which the Hawks ran their starters, on Dirk-like shooting percentages.
But Wall took nearly four 3s and just under five free throws per game in those contests, a tradeoff the Hawks would likely be willing to make again. Hustle back in transition and seal off the paint, and you’ll live with either Wall moving through clogged lanes — he turned the ball over 27 times in four games against Atlanta this season — or a 30 percent career 3-point shooter trying to beat you from outside.
Teague’s been great this year, a deserving All-Star at the controls of the league’s No. 6 offense. Wall, though, is a superstar capable of bending games to his will. Atlanta’s chances of advancing improve dramatically if they can make him look ordinary more often than he looks exceptional.
• Washington vs. the arc. Led by Gortat and Nene, the Wizards are great at patrolling the paint and deterring opponents at the rim. But they ranked just outside the bottom-third of the league in 3-point attempts allowed this season, and just above middle-of-the-pack in opponents’ 3-point percentage. Against Atlanta, that could be a problem.
Only six teams attempted more 3s this year than the Hawks, and only one (Golden State) made them at a higher clip. Atlanta lives from long-range, rifling through reads in Budenholzer’s fast-moving offense aiming find somebody an open deep shot — ideally sharpshooter Korver, but anybody, really, because nearly everybody in the Hawks rotation can knock down open 3s.
They struggled from distance through four games against Brooklyn, who rolled out lineups with multiple like-size perimeter defenders capable of switching off-ball screens and sharing responsibility for tracking Korver. They got on track in Games 5 and 6, though, shooting 26-for-65 (40 percent) from deep as a team, with Korver drilling 11 of his 22 attempts.
If the Wizards can’t keep Atlanta from swinging the ball, staying one step ahead of rotations and finding open shooters, they’ll be in trouble. If they can replicate the Nets’ early-series success in contesting looks and stifling Korver, though, they can clear the boards — Washington finished third in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage this year — and push the tempo in transition, a potential source of easy points.
One name to keep an eye on here: Porter. Atlanta shot 41.3 percent from deep against the Wizards when the 6-foot-9 Georgetown product was on the bench this season, but just 36.2 percent when he played. After his coming-out party as a stopper against Toronto, he could be key as Washington tries to hold the line.
• The Wizards’ fours vs. Millsap. Washington crossed Toronto up by shifting Pierce to power forward, spreading the floor and attacking with quickness rather than strength. I’m not sure Wittman will be eager to try the same tactic against Atlanta, since Millsap seems both better able to track Pierce on the perimeter and more capable of wearing him down on the defensive end than Toronto’s bigs.
Besides, Wittman might prefer a brute-force approach. He could call the number of Nene, who ought to be pretty fresh after having averaged just 24.3 minutes per game against the Raptors, and put the Brazilian to work against the smaller Millsap, whom he can overpower in the post.
Nene averaged 15 points on 67.9 percent shooting against Atlanta this season, and his ability to help facilitate offense as a passer from the elbows or a short roll man in the screen game could help the Wizards create and exploit openings in the Hawks’ largely steady defense. We don’t have to go back too far to recall Nene’s size, strength and skill playing a difference-making role in the playoffs; remember his work in dominating Joakim Noah and the Bulls’ bigs during Washington’s first-round win last spring.
But we also don’t have to go back too far to recall a matchup in which an opponent more capable of stepping out to the perimeter gave Nene problems — in this case, David West of the Indiana Pacers, who knocked the Wizards out in six games in last year’s second round. Millsap’s pick-and-pop talent and his quickness in the face-up game could mitigate the advantage of turning to the bruiser on offense. In that case, Wittman could go back to Pierce at the four to match up on the perimeter; that, in turn, could reduce the Wizards’ ability to lock down the paint.
Finding the right matchup for a player as versatile as Millsap is difficult, but Wittman’s got a couple of intriguing options at his disposal. Figuring out which to ride, and when, will be important.
How Atlanta Could Win
Millsap and Horford stay healthy. The offensive execution from Games 5 and 6 carries over, with the ball moving and the 3s flying. Teague gives as good as he gets in his matchup with Wall. Carroll continues to be the most valuable player that most fans couldn’t pick out of a lineup. The Wizards turn the ball over like they did during the regular season, and their 3-point shooting regresses to the mean.
How Washington Could Win
Wall and Beal start hitting shots. The role players’ hot shooting continues. Nene bullies Millsap, forcing the Hawks to move Horford over to him, and Wall and Gortat do their two-man thing. Atlanta’s offense backslides to first-four-games-against-Brooklyn status. Pierce’s trash talk rattles Sir Foster.
Totally Subjective Entertainment Value Ranking: 6 out of 10. Even the high points of these two teams’ work — Wall in transition, Korver firing, Horford doing everything, Pierce backing up every word — couldn’t make either of their opening-round matchups very fun. I’m looking forward to Wall vs. Teague, and I’m eager to see how both clubs respond to a step up in degree of difficulty. But I’m not sure that tough, hard-nosed competition between two teams that defend well will translate into entertaining play here. I’d love to be wrong.
Prediction: Hawks in 6.
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Dan Devine is an editor for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
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