Fantasy value of 2015 first-rounders – ESPN
It happens that fast. On Thursday night, three months of evaluation and speculation turned into cold, hard facts, and now we know where some of the best skill-position rookies of 2015 will be playing.
You already saw my appraisals of this year’s rookie quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends back in February. But that scouting was done in a vacuum. How will the Class of 2015’s first-round skill players fare in their new locales? Read on.
1. Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Steve McNair is my favorite comp for Winston, but remember, McNair threw just 80 regular-season passes as a rookie. Winston will be afforded no such room to grow: He’ll start for the Bucs Week 1. In Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Winston has a receiving corps of power forwards, and new coordinator Dirk Koetter just spent three pretty successful years with Matt Ryan. The general rule for rookie QBs is that they rarely become standard-league starters in their first seasons, though recent exceptions have included Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck. So a top-10 season isn’t impossible for Winston, though unlike those three older players, he isn’t really a running QB. He’s likely to rank in my 15-20 range this summer.
2. Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans: If Mariota had gone to the Philadelphia Eagles, I’d be extolling his virtues as a potential top-10 fantasy option. But in the wasteland of Tennessee, I don’t want any part of him. You know the Mariota narrative by now: He’s a great athlete who hasn’t played much under center or made many pro-style read progressions. In a good offense filled with weapons, Mariota’s running ability would be tantalizing; with the Titans — who added retreads Harry Douglas and Hakeem Nicks to a so-so stable of receivers — I’m not buying. Mariota should beat out sophomore Zach Mettenberger, and there will be weeks when he runs for a bunch of yards and excites fantasy nation. But consistency won’t be there.
4. Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders: The Raiders made a great pick here, but I don’t like it for fantasy. Cooper was the best receiver in this class: He’s unrelentingly quick coming out of his breaks, and is simply open all the time. Unfortunately, his new NFL team is more than one great WR prospect away from competence. I’m not sold on Derek Carr. Yes, players can improve in their first pro offseasons, but all I can do is evaluate the tape I have, and I didn’t like Carr’s. He has accuracy and decision-making issues, and should’ve been picked off way more than 12 times in ’14. He reminded me of (gasp) Christian Ponder. We all like Sammy Watkins, but ask yourself how he looked on your fantasy squad week to week last season, with the likes of Kyle Orton and EJ Manuel throwing it. Unfortunately, I think that’s where Cooper is headed in his rookie season.
7. Kevin White, WR, Chicago Bears: White was a one-year wonder playing in a spread collegiate system, against which opposing defenses didn’t play much press coverage. But his athletic gifts are so imposing, he deserved to be a top-10 pick. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, White runs a 4.35 40 and tied for the most bench reps at this year’s combine, and what stands out most on tape are his Velcro hands. I’m as skeptical of Jay Cutler as anyone, but even I have to admit I’d rather have my WR catching Cutler’s passes instead of Derek Carr’s, so White will almost certainly be my highest-ranked rookie receiver this summer, and he’s currently my No. 1 rookie dynasty player. Alshon Jeffery will get fed first in ’15, but White has Julio Jones upside.
10. Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams: I told folks all winter to pump the brakes on Tre Mason. Now you can stand on them. Gurley is still recovering from a torn ACL and is no sure bet to be a full-time contributor in September, but he’s the very model of a workhorse back. He’s 6-foot-1 and 222 pounds, he’s a patient runner, he’s fast when he breaks into the clear, and he punishes tacklers. Gurley reminds me of Fred Taylor, and I think we’ll look back and wonder how he lasted all the way to No. 10. But with Mason coming off a nice rookie year and Gurley’s knee woes — plus considering the Rams still haven’t addressed a not-very-good offensive line — I expect some form of middling platoon to begin the season. That means I probably won’t have either Gurley or Mason in my top-20 RBs for ’15.
14. DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins: Here’s another good pick for NFL purposes that may vex fantasy players. I view Parker as a possible future No. 1 wideout: He’s a 6-foot-3 high-pointer with magical hands, and while he has to prove he can beat physical NFL corners off the line, he does have legit (4.45) straight-line speed. In the immediate term, though, it sure seems like there are a lot of mouths to feed in south Florida. The Dolphins got rid of Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson and Charles Clay, but they added Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings and Jordan Cameron to go with Jarvis Landry. Does that leave anything resembling a full-time role for Parker as a rookie? Sure, Jennings may not have much left, but given Ryan Tannehill‘s problems throwing the deep ball, it’s legit to wonder whether Stills and Parker will see enough downfield action to make either of them useful.
15. Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers: Here’s Exhibit No. 314,208 illustrating why you should never listen to what coaches or general managers say. All offseason, the Chargers have tried to sell us that they were perfectly happy with a combination of Danny Woodhead, Branden Oliver and Donald Brown in their backfield. Then Thursday night they traded up to get Gordon, who finds himself in a good situation for immediate value. He’s a legit breakaway threat at 215 pounds, with crazy acceleration after he changes directions. Is he Jamaal Charles right away? I doubt that, because I think Charles is more decisive, while Gordon will occasionally dance. But there’s no question he’s more talented than anything else the Chargers can muster in their backfield. The hype train is rolling: Gordon will likely be the first rookie off the board in redraft leagues, and deserves top-15 RB consideration.
20. Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles: I’m not the world’s biggest Agholor fan, but at least this selection puts the notion of Riley Cooper as a fantasy option to bed. On another team, I’d be tempted to simply ignore Agholor — who is neither big nor a downfield presence — as a special teams contributor in his rookie season. But in a Philly offense that still wants to run more plays than anyone in the NFL, Agholor will get a shot at the Jeremy Maclin role, and you’ll recall that Maclin just put up an 85-catch, 1,279-yard season. No, Agholor won’t produce that right away. He has to prove that at 6-feet and 198 pounds, he can get off the line against outside corners, so Jordan Matthews is still the Eagles receiver to draft first. But Agholor will certainly be drafted in the later rounds of all fantasy leagues.
26. Breshad Perriman, WR, Baltimore Ravens: Having lost Torrey Smith to free agency, the Ravens were always going to take a receiver early in this year’s draft, and considering new coordinator Marc Trestman’s affinity for throwing, it was always going to be a fascinating landing spot. So here comes Perriman, a kid who crushed lesser opponents while playing at Central Florida, showing off great wheels and athletic ability at 6-foot-2 and 212 pounds. Now, he’s raw, and he was plagued by drops in his final collegiate campaign, but we all said the same things about Kelvin Benjamin last year. Steve Smith faded last December and the Ravens don’t have anyone else. Perriman will be given a chance to produce as a rookie.
29. Phillip Dorsett, WR, Indianapolis Colts: This one is just weird. I like Dorsett, and I think the DeSean Jackson comparisons might be apt. But on a squad that already has T.Y. Hilton, Andre Johnson and Donte Moncrief and plays with two tight ends about as much as anyone in the NFL, Dorsett feels like a luxury item. Are the Colts really good enough on their offensive line and/or their defense to afford luxury items? You have to squint hard to foresee a circumstance where Dorsett has immediate fantasy value: It’s unlikely that he and the similarly undersized Hilton can play together outside of three-WR sets. His biggest contribution as a rookie may come on special teams.
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