On Marcus Mariota, the Cleveland Browns and betting against the spread: Tom … – cleveland.com
BEREA, Ohio – A week ago, Browns general manager Ray Farmer painted a vivid picture of the challenges confronting decision makers in the NFL Draft 2015.
The subject of the portrait was his son’s youth football team.
“My son is 12 and they run the spread,” Farmer said. “I’m like, ‘They can’t even throw the ball, but somehow they’re lined up with guys all over the field.’ It’s kind of become what it is. That’s where you’re getting your players from.”
OK, they’re not going directly from youth football to the NFL even though some of the Browns’ drafts might have suggested it. But Farmer’s point is valid and quite concerning.
Spread offenses and their proliferation in the prep and college ranks are creating plenty of angst for the men who must select the next wave of prospects starting Thursday night with the opening round of the draft. Over the past decade, pro-style attacks have been vanishing at a rapid rate at the amateur level, making the projection process increasingly difficult.
As former Browns general manager Phil Savage told NEOMG in January: “It’s two completely different football games that just happened to be played with the same ball.”
The game’s evolution impacts many positions, none greater than quarterback. It’s believed the Browns have interest in trading up for Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota, who likely will be the second player taken behind pro-style quarterback Jameis Winston of Florida State.
The Oregon quarterback possesses ample individual skills, but he’s spent most of his formative years operating in spread formations where a quarterback’s vision, processing skills and pocket awareness aren’t being tested the way they will in the NFL. Spread quarterbacks often operate exclusively from the shotgun, look to the sideline (along with the rest of the offense) for the play calls and rarely are asked to go through progressions.
The last two quarterbacks the Browns drafted came from similar systems. Rushed into the lineup in part because of his age, Brandon Weeden busted out after two seasons. Johnny Manziel endured a rocky rookie year in 2014. But this isn’t a Browns’ problem. It’s a league-wide issue.
The majority of the NFL’s best quarterbacks in 2009 – Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers – remain its best quarterbacks today. The only young ones demonstrating any consistency are Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson, products of pro-style college programs.
Dual-threat quarterback Robert Griffin III can’t stay healthy. Colin Kaepernick has regressed. It’s a worrisome trend.
“The NFL is not getting a pipeline of traditional NFL quarterbacks the way that they used to,” Farmer said. ” . . . The league in general has got to figure out how you take guys from this system, change kind of what they are if you are going to do something different with them and plug them in. That’s what it comes down to. You have to figure out either how to make the adjustment or everybody is going to start running the spread in the National Football League.”
It’s what makes maverick Chip Kelly so alluring in Philadelphia. Will he eventually start running his old offense from Oregon with the Eagles? He’s already playing faster than most NFL teams. Imagine what he might do if the Eagles traded up for Mariota.
“I think the teams that figure it out the fastest or change the fastest will reap the benefits of what’s out there,” Farmer said. “That’s what it comes down to.”
The Broncos tried it several years ago with Tim Tebow, who recently resurfaced in Philadelphia. Savage, the executive director of the Senior Bowl, believes Manziel could succeed at the NFL level if the Browns committed to his Texas A&M offense.
It sounds far fetched, but if spread QBs continue to flop at the NFL level it might become an alternative, one that would usher in the era of the disposable quarterback. You can argue that Griffin was a test case. Let’s not forget the new rookie salary cap no longer forces teams to lavish Sam Bradford-like guaranteed money on its high picks.
The more conventional answer is returning to a time when young quarterbacks were developed slowly. Remember the apprenticeship of Rodgers in Green Bay? Unfortunately, most teams don’t have an aging yet still productive Brett Favre to buy time for a prospect. They also don’t have owners willing to keep coaching staffs intact long enough to allow a first-rounder to red shirt. That was supposed to be the plan for Blake Bortles last year, but he was on the field before midseason.
Maybe it’s coincidence, but the only two rookie quarterbacks who enjoyed success last season, Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr, hailed from pro-style systems. It doesn’t mean spread QBs can’t succeed in the NFL, but the learning curve is much steeper.
Which brings us back to Mariota and the Browns. I’m in the camp that says bundling three first-round picks to trade up for him is too hefty a price. But veteran NFL writer Dan Pompei raised an interesting point last week. Scouts told him the depth in the college pipeline is no better in the coming years.
3. The dropoff after top 2 QBs might be a sign of things to come. Scouts tell me there isn’t much QB depth in the pipeline for coming drafts
— Dan Pompei (@danpompei) April 20, 2015
The Browns have lots of pieces on defense and across the offensive line so if they really like Mariota and have the two first-round picks now . . . You see where we’re going here, right?
The game is changing, folks, and it’s bringing a whole new meaning to the term, “betting against the spread.”
Don’t believe it? Go watch some youth football.
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
