Rivers Trade Dead? Draft Intrigue Begins at No. 2 – mmqb.si.com

Three days before the 2015 draft, one thing is clear: The drama starts with the second pick. With Tampa Bay very likely to take quarterback Jameis Winston number one, Tennessee is in command with quarterback Marcus Mariota the likely target if anyone wants to come up.

Lots can happen, including Philip Rivers being in play, and Chip Kelly getting an itchy trigger finger, the Jets moving up for their quarterback of the long-term, and the Browns using their two first-round picks to jump into the fray. Nothing is clear this morning, but this is what I’m hearing, and what I believe three days from round one:

• I don’t think the Chargers will trade Philip Rivers. Just a gut feeling after lots of time calling around over the weekend. Now, I do think the Titans and Chargers will talk this week, but I don’t see a smart match; moreover, as I’ve written all along, San Diego definitely does not want to trade Rivers, and I believe the Chargers have never been told Rivers won’t sign a contract in San Diego beyond this year—though he does not want to currently. I believe Tennessee would want more than the 33-year-old quarterback for the second pick in the draft, and if I’m San Diego GM Tom Telesco, I’m not willing to offer any more. Rivers is a sure thing, for three to five years anyway. Marcus Mariota is 12 years younger, but is not a sure thing.

• If the Titans don’t get a good offer, I think they pick Mariota. Tennessee wants an offer; the Titans aren’t married to picking anyone at number two. I do not believe Tennessee has gotten a golden offer yet. As one GM in the top 10 told me Saturday: “Tuesday or Wednesday is when those calls are made, the serious calls.” Maybe—but the Falcons did the work on the huge Julio Jones draft deal with Cleveland three weeks before the 2011 draft. I’ve got to think that the Titans would know if they were going to get a really good offer by now. And I hadn’t heard of even a strong rumor of one by late Sunday afternoon. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen. The Titans, though they feel good about Zach Mettenberger, would feel better about Mariota.

In his weekly draft column, Robert Klemko has an NFL scout share his team’s draft grades on Jameis, Mariota and the 12 first-round quarterbacks taken since 2011, from Luck to Ponder. FULL STORY

• The Titans were all over Mariota all through the college season, and beyond. One Oregon source told me the Tennessee scouts were the most fervent of all teams during and after the season investigating Mariota. The one thing the Titans feel very good about: Though Mariota has a reputation of being a running quarterback who would have a tough time adjusting to life as an NFL pocket passer, they saw that the majority of his throws this year came from the pocket, without a lot of movement before the throw. In fact, 23 of Mariota’s 36 passes in the semifinal win over Florida State last winter were from the pocket, without significant movement by him.

• I can’t see Chip Kelly going all wacky for Mariota. But that’s just me. Jumping from 20, where Philadelphia is due to pick, to the top five would just be too debilitating for a team with some needs. One of the best general managers in football said to me over the weekend: “I think we’re all waiting for Chip to make a move, and none of us really knows if he will.” I don’t either. But I doubt it.

My gut feeling three days out? (Dangerous in a year like this, because nothing looks certain but the top pick.) The Titans don’t get that pot of gold for the pick, and they take Mariota.

Kiss of death. Now the pick surely will be dealt.

One last thing about the run-up to the draft that happens every year. I spend time the weekend before the draft each year talking to people about my final mock draft, which will run Tuesday here at The MMQB. In talks with team officials, I usually say something like, “Tell me if you’ve heard anything you trust about” Team X. With Jacksonville picking third, I asked 12 people I talk to fairly often to tell me if they heard anything they trust about the Jaguars at three. Eight answered the question with a name. Amari Cooper, Dante Fowler and Leonard Williams all got mentioned as names they heard reliably.

This is why, in draft week, you’ve got to qualify almost everything you say.

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Why no one can predict this draft.

Very little consensus about the order of the top players this year. Have you noticed? It’s been that way consistently since the end of the college season. There’s not an Andrew Luck, or even a Jadeveon Clowney, this year—a player who would be rated the best on the board of most teams or most analysts. When I asked six analysts in the past week for their top 10 players in this draft (regardless of position), four different players were number one: three nods to USC’s Leonard Williams, and one apiece to Amari Cooper, Jameis Winston and Dante Fowler.

The book on this draft, essentially, is that there is no book. Trendspotting the top 10 players in this draft, according to six analysts:

The big calls from each analyst:

• Brandt: Todd Gurley number six … Breshad Perriman the number three receiver in the class.

• Cosell: Todd Gurley as the second-best player in the class … Andrus Peat as the best tackle … Marcus Mariota over Jameis Winston.

• Jeremiah: Kevin White over Amari Cooper … Shane Ray the number two pass-rusher … Danny Shelton cracking the top 10.

• Kiper: Brandon Scherff over every wideout except Amari Cooper … No Trae Waynes in the top 10.

• McShay: Arik Armstead cracks the top 10 … Two wideouts ahead of Dante Fowler … Another Todd Gurley fan.

• PFF: Stanford’s Henry Anderson, stunningly, a top-10 player … Shelton, who may be a two-down player, number two … Nelson Agholor over Kevin White.

The moral of the draft this year is that it’s a beauty-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder draft. It should be fun Thursday night, just because most of what happens will have a surprise element to it.

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