What to watch for in Friday’s NBA Playoffs Game 3s
We’ve got a trio of Game 3s on tap for Friday night, with two series teetering on the brink of the point of no return and one that could absolutely still go either way. Here’s a look ahead at what to keep an eye on during this evening’s three-game playoff slate.
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Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, 7 p.m. ET — Rockets lead, 2-0
Can Dallas plug up enough holes to keep the dam from bursting? There’s not a whole lot for the Mavericks to feel good about after the first two games of this series. Yes, they’ve held MVP candidate James Harden to 9-for-28 shooting thus far, but that’s scarcely seemed to matter, as the Rockets have notched double-digit wins behind a deeper-than-many-thought bench and the best version of Dwight Howard we’ve seen in a long time.
The Mavs have hung tight through three quarters in both contests, but couldn’t make the final push in either, with big shots by Corey Brewer and Trevor Ariza keeping them at bay in Game 1, and the Josh Smith-Dwight high-low connection blowing their doors off late in Game 2. They’ve allowed Houston to score 64 fourth-quarter points in two games and put the Rockets on the line 29 times in those 24 minutes, with Harden averaging nearly one free-throw attempt per minute in final frames. They’ve looked woefully incapable of handling Houston’s pick-and-roll game, especially with Smith getting into a groove as a playmaker off the short roll. And — oh, by the way — they’re entering Game 3 without Chandler Parsons, who missed Game 2 after aggravating his right knee injury and is now done for the season, and Rajon Rondo, who “suffered” a “back” “injury” early in the second half of Game 2 and isn’t expected to return for Dallas — ever — which could very well be a case of addition by subtraction offensively, but also removes from the equation perhaps Dallas’ best on-ball option against Harden.
It’s not yet clear exactly how Rick Carlisle intends to juggle his starting lineup for Game 3. He could keep Game 2 starter Richard Jefferson (seven points on 2-for-6 shooting in 23 minutes in Parsons’ stead) in place at small forward, or he could opt to elevate live-wire reserve Al-Farouq Aminu, whose rebounding, shot-blocking and defensive energy have made him one of Dallas’ few bright spots through two games, into the starting five. With Rondo gone, Carlisle could start one of three veteran ball-handlers — undersized pick-and-roll playmakers J.J. Barea and Raymond Felton, or Devin Harris, perhaps a more well-rounded option who’s coming off a toe injury that kept him sidelined for Game 2 — and figures to go with a “point guard by committee” approach favoring whichever triggerman shows a hot hand. (Provided one of them does.)
The unit of Jefferson, Barea, Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler and Monta Ellis (a lineup that hadn’t logged a single minute together during the regular season) offered a real offensive spark in Game 2, torching Houston for 27 points in 11 minutes of floor time. It literally gave it all back on the other end, though, allowing 29 points (-2) with the small Ellis-Barea backcourt providing little resistance to Houston’s ball-handlers and the steps-slow tandem of Jefferson and Nowitzki creating too many messes for Chandler to credibly clean up.
Nowitzki-Chandler-Jefferson-Ellis-Felton presents roughly the same pros and cons, with the bigger Felton perhaps standing some chance of holding up a bit better defensively while not offering quite as much off-the-bounce quickness or creativity. That lineup logged one appearance this season, outscoring its opposition by one point in 18 minutes. (When you get this deep into the reserve corps, you’re dealing with small samples.)
Whichever direction Carlisle chooses to go, Dallas must clean up the pick-and-roll defense that got decimated and dunked all over late in Game 2 to stand a chance. Then again, it’s going to be tough to offer demonstrably tighter coverage with Nowitzki manning the four spot against the likes of Smith and Terrence Jones.
Then again, given how much the Mavs have struggled to score without Dirk in this series — 104 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, just 89 points-per-100 without through two games — and Dallas’ need to put as much shooting on the court as possible to puncture a Houston defense that ranked sixth in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season and has looked damn near impenetrable with Howard in the middle so far, it’s hard to see a clear path toward meaningful enough improvement for Dallas to deal given the hand Carlisle’s been dealt.
“We’ve made some adjustments to some of the things we’ve done,” Carlisle said Friday, according to Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News. “We’re going to have to execute those things and be better.”
Much, much better.
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Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards, 8 p.m. ET — Wizards lead, 2-0
Can any Raptors guard get going? It’s been a nightmarish start to the postseason for 2014 All-Star Kyle Lowry, 2013 All-Star DeMar DeRozan, newly crowned Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams and key backup guard Greivis Vasquez. One (or, ideally, all!) of them has to wake up for the Raptors to regain some semblance of a pulse.
Toronto’s top three guards have been unable to locate any offensive rhythm against a Wizards defense that finished fifth in the NBA in points allowed per possession during the regular season, with DeRozan’s unsightly 39.5 percent postseason shooting percentage ranking as the trio’s top mark through two games. Vasquez has had more offensive success, making six of his 13 shots and three of his eight 3-point tries while dishing eight assists against three turnovers. But he has been absolutely scorched by Washington’s backcourt, acting as little more than a slow-moving background actor in the highlights of John Wall and Bradley Beal en route to a team-worst plus-minus mark (-22 in 59 minutes) as Toronto dropped consecutive home games, with the second coming in embarrassing blowout fashion.
The Raptors enter Verizon Center desperately needing a win on Friday to avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole out of which no NBA team has ever climbed, and while Dwane Casey has called for increased “swag” from his repeat Atlantic Division champions, it seems likely that the Raptors’ salvation lies not solely in confidently acting as if they’re the better team, but in implementing actual solutions to the defensive ploys — double-teams in the post, traps on ball-handlers, aggressive ball denial, etc. — that Randy Wittman’s club has used to put the clamps on Toronto’s playmakers.
With spacing at a premium and shot-making in short supply, Casey could look earlier and more often to reserve Patrick Patterson. The stretch four out of Kentucky shot 37.1 percent from 3-point range during the regular season, has made five of his eight triple tries in this series and is shooting a team-high 71.4 percent from the floor overall. He presents a more credible floor-spreading threat than Tyler Hansbrough, and could give Toronto’s guards more room to maneuver, making it harder for the Wizards’ bigs to double the ball without consequences.
If Washington continues to roll with the small-ball lineups, featuring Paul Pierce at power forward alongside either Marcin Gortat or Nene, that torched Toronto in Games 1 and 2, the Raps could look to go even smaller, rolling out multi-guard sets that put three of the four playmakers on the court at the same time. In such configurations, it might make sense to give burly swingman James Johnson another crack after a disappointing Game 2 — 0-for-4 from the foul line, -14 in seven minutes — at defending Pierce as a like-for-like small-ball four. Casey doesn’t necessarily seem comfortable turning to such a high-variance player in high-stakes situations, but while Johnson’s valleys can prove disastrous to his team, his peaks could be just the shot of adrenaline the Raptors need to get back in this series.
More than anything, though, the Raptors need more from All-Star point guard Lowry, who propelled Toronto during its early-season surge but whose shooting numbers have fallen off a cliff in 2015 due to the combination of workload and injuries. It’s nearly impossible to envision a scenario in which the Raptors claw back into this series with Lowry continuing to shoot 25 percent from the floor, put up goose-eggs from 3-point range and pick up ticky-tack fouls that take him off the floor; despite his dismal shooting, the Raps have played the Wiz straight up in his 61 minutes on the court, and gotten outscored by 18 points in the 50 minutes he’s sat.
It’s a lot to ask from a player reportedly dealing with a left shin injury and an illness, but, well, this is the time to ask a lot of the players you make into cornerstones. Washington’s All-Star point guard caused an awful lot of trouble when he visited the Raptors’ gym. Toronto’s has to start returning the favor on Friday.
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Los Angeles Clippers at San Antonio Spurs, 9:30 p.m. ET — Series tied, 1-1
Can San Antonio build on its momentum with Tony Parker hobbled? The Spurs got even on Wednesday thanks to a brilliant performance by Tim Duncan and a monster finish from Patty Mills. They needed both, in large part, because Parker was once again unable to provide much of anything offensively, scoring just one point (albeit with five assists and without a turnover) in 30 minutes of work before bowing out with 5:09 left in regulation due to tightness in his right Achilles tendon.
After a day of treatment and a night of rest, Parker was cleared to play in Game 3. But coming off not just the Achilles tightness, but also the rolled left ankle and bruised left thigh he suffered in the Clippers’ Game 1 win, it seems reasonable to wonder just how effective the 32-year-old triggerman will be on Friday.
Gregg Popovich does have some options with which to make things work should Parker not be up to snuff. After spending most of the season struggling to regain his shooting stroke and sharpness following offseason shoulder surgery, Mills has started to look a bit more like the game-breaking instant-offense scorer of last year’s title run. Manu Ginobili’s essentially the second-unit point guard in all but name only anyway, and can be a closing-time facilitator provided he doesn’t replicate the late-game turnover and knee-jerk foul that got him disqualified from Game 2. Boris Diaw can generate offense out of the high and low posts, and can present some extra variety and spice as a secondary driver and passer. Cory Joseph doesn’t offer anything near the offensive initiation and playmaking that Parker provides, but he’s a capable caretaker and a determined defender to whom Pop can turn in a pinch.
Plus, as Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News notes, the Spurs have a few different ways to give Parker a defensive break provided he’s not nimble enough to start the game on All-Star Chris Paul, who’s averaging 26.5 points and 6.5 assists per game thus far on 60 percent shooting from both 2-point and 3-point range. Pop could sic newly minted Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard or fellow elite perimeter defender Danny Green on CP3 from the get-go, allowing Parker to track small forward Matt Barnes from the opening tip. And hey, if Doc Rivers decides to go hunting the mismatch by letting Barnes post Parker up, that means the Clips aren’t working through Paul pick-and-rolls or Blake Griffin-DeAndre Jordan high-lows, which seems like a win for the defense.
Lots of folks (including this guy) picked the Spurs to topple the Clippers due in part to superior depth and variety of options on both ends of the floor, and San Antonio’s been able to outlast opponents without Parker in the past. But those were one-game situations, not instances where Parker’s been debilitated for the bulk of the series. If these mounting injuries to his wheels render him unable to capably counterpunch when CP3 starts cooking, all that invigorating overtime work to steal home-court advantage could wind up going right out the window faster than you can say “merde.”
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Dan Devine is an editor for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
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