Think it’s too early to buy into these pitchers? You’re wrong
Sample size can be a dangerous thing. Most analysts will caution against reading into early season stats due to sample size. Any player can perform well, or poorly, over 50 at-bats. Any pitcher can look fantastic, or awful, over three starts.
That makes it incredibly difficult to make a judgment during the season’s first month. Is Jake Odorizzi really an ace now? Has Mike Moustakas finally put it all together? We can look at the numbers, but we won’t truly know until we have more data.
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There are some stats that stabilize early, however. Baseball Prospectus’ Russell Carleton has done research on the subject, and concluded that strikeout rates for pitchers tend to stabilize around 70 batters faced.
Many pitchers have already reached that threshold, and those who are performing way above their established strikeout rates could be in line for a breakout.
| Name | 2014 K% | 2015 K% | Dif |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McCarthy | 20.900% | 34.700% | 13.80% |
| Trevor Bauer | 21.600% | 34.700% | 13.10% |
| Clay Buchholz | 17.900% | 28.700% | 10.80% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | 16.600% | 27.400% | 10.80% |
| Chris Archer | 21.100% | 30.900% | 9.80% |
| Joe Kelly | 15.900% | 25.00% | 9.10% |
| Scott Kazmir | 21.100% | 29.900% | 8.80% |
| James Shields | 19.200% | 27.900% | 8.70% |
| Lance Lynn | 20.900% | 28.600% | 7.70% |
| Francisco Liriano | 25.300% | 32.900% | 7.60% |
| Andrew Cashner | 18.400% | 25.300% | 6.90% |
| Michael Pineda | 20.300% | 26.700% | 6.40% |
| Jimmy Nelson | 18.600% | 25.00% | 6.40% |
| Travis Wood | 18.700% | 25.00% | 6.30% |
| Kyle Hendricks | 14.600% | 20.600% | 6.00% |
| Anibal Sanchez | 20.0% | 25.800% | 5.80% |
| Bartolo Colon | 17.900% | 23.00% | 5.10% |
The above chart shows the 17 pitchers who have posted strikeout rates that are 5 percent better than their rates last season.
It’s worth noting that strikeouts aren’t everything. Despite leading the list, Brandon McCarthy has an unspectacular 4.50 ERA. That’s mainly due to the fact that 35 percent of his fly balls have left the park. That should regress, and McCarthy’s numbers should be in for a solid correction.
Still, it’s possible to strike out a fair amount of hitters and still be an iffy pitcher. A.J. Burnett posted a nice strikeout rate last season, but his walks prevented him from being an ace again. At the same time, there’s a reason guys who strike out a ton of batters routinely contend for the Cy Young Award. Strikeouts are a sign that a pitcher is dominating.
So, what about the pitchers in our chart? Should we consider all of them breakout candidates? Yes and no. A few of the pitchers who look like solid cases are McCarthy, Bauer, Buchholz, Joe Kelly and Jimmy Nelson.
Be warned: These numbers can still change quite a bit if a guy goes out and throws seven innings with no strikeouts. There’s also a chance these pitchers were on for one game, and that’s why their strikeout figures are elevated so early in the year.
In order to determine which players are more likely to keep this up, we can try and figure out if they’ve altered their approach or repertoire on the mound. Finding those things can give us some evidence to back up these early surges.
The best resource for this is BrooksBaseball.net. The site uses PITCHf/x data to categorize and sort pitches. You can find basically anything on the site, from situation stats to whiff rate for each pitch. It’s a tremendous asset.
It should come as no surprise that the top three players in the chart, McCarthy, Trevor Bauer and Clay Buchholz have introduced altered repertoires thus far. McCarthy has opted to use his four-seam fastball quite a bit more this season. After seeing a solid spike in velocity with the pitch last year, McCarthy has been able to retain that thus far.
Buchholz has gone the other way, relying on his sinker more than his four-seamer. That’s not the reason for his elevated strikeout rate, but it helps explain why he’s been able to post a 55.6 percent ground ball rate this year.
In Bauer’s case, he toned down his repertoire. Bauer is somewhat notorious for throwing seven or eight different pitches. This year, he seems to be more focused on five. For Bauer, the development of his slider has been huge. He’s not only using the pitch a lot more, but he’s getting whiffs 26.92 percent of the time with it.
Those are just a few ways to evaluate these pitchers early in the season. You’re looking for things like altered repertoires, increases in velocity or new-found dominance with a specific pitch.
So, why don’t you give it a shot? Head on over to BrooksBaseball.net and see whether Chris Archer is showing new skills, or if Joe Kelly has really figured it out.
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It might be early, but we’ve already reached a point where some numbers are starting to become significant. Strikeout rate not only stabilizes quickly, but it’s also one of the best ways to determine how dominant a pitcher has performed.
McCarthy’s traditional numbers may not reflect it just yet, but his strikeout rate tells us he may have taken things to another level this season. It’s not too early to get on the bandwagon.
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Chris Cwik is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik
