In an NBA playoffs series, it’s all about the matchups. Looking ahead, I’ve made my picks—which are probably mostly wrong—for the entire postseason. Below are some of the key choices I made, explained.

Western Conference:

Quarterfinals: #6 San Antonio Spurs over #3 Los Angeles Clippers, 4-3.

This was one of the more difficult picks I had to make. The Clips currently have a 1-0 advantage in the series after posting a convincing win in the first game and leaving the Spurs totally helpless. I could easily see this one going either way. But I’m betting on three things: that the Clippers won’t defend at that Game One rate for the entire series, that Coach Popovich, (the best coach in the league), will make key adjustments and that the Spurs will actually make their open shots, unlike in Game One. The Spurs will need more out of their older stars though, as Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili combined for just 31 points, one shy of Chris Paul’s solo total of 32.

Semifinals: #6 San Antonio Spurs over #2 Houston Rockets, 4-2.

This was not as difficult of a decision. The Rockets are great on both sides of the ball, but they’re too one-dimensional on offense to beat San Antonio (or Los Angeles, for that matter). Count on Kawhi Leonard to shut down James Harden in this one as he has in the regular season. Sleeper storyline: Harden was bad in the Finals when he was on the Thunder. He was bad when the Rockets lost to Portland. If Leonard locks him down in the second round, he might start to get a “choker” reputation.

Conference Finals: #1 Golden State Warriors over #6 San Antonio Spurs, 4-3.

If you love ball movement, this is the series for you. Two of the league’s most unselfish teams squaring off would be nothing short of amazing basketball. The Spurs, on paper, match up well with the Warriors. Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard are hounding perimeter defenders that might be able to slow down Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The issue then becomes: who does Tony Parker guard? Golden State plays a variety of long, big wing players that will punish the smaller Parker in the paint. On top of that, a healthy Andrew Bogut should make Duncan’s life difficult. The Warriors would take the series by a hair. It might just come down to who makes more threes.

Eastern Conference:

Semifinals: #2 Cleveland Cavaliers over #3 Chicago Bulls, 4-3.

Chicago is the best bet to dethrone the Cavaliers in the East. They play big lineup, with four rotation big men that will likely bully the Cleveland frontline when Timofey Mozgov is on the bench. Joakim Noah and Jimmy Butler are excellent defenders to place on Kevin Love and LeBron James respectively. This series hinges on the matchup between Derrick Rose and Kyrie Irving; if Rose can hold his own both on defense and offense, Chicago would be in a good spot. In fact, I would pick the Bulls to win, if healthy, because I just don’t like LeBron James that much. But given the injury histories of Rose and Noah, we might not see those two guys last the whole series.

Conference Finals: #2 Cleveland Cavaliers over #1 Atlanta Hawks, 4-2.

The Hawks have been a great story this year. Starless, they found a way to claim the first seed in the East. No Atlanta player scored 30 points in a game this year. These guys do it by committee. Problem is, the committee is kind of banged-up. Al Horford just dislocated his right pinky. Paul Millsap is coming in with a shoulder injury as well, and those are the Hawks’ two best players. There are a plethora of other injuries, and because of them, the Hawks haven’t been playing well for a while. 

They also don’t have the size to exploit the Cavaliers’ weakness in the paint or the defenders to put on James and Irving. They may be the first seed, but I think the Hawks would lose to either Cleveland or a healthy Bulls team. Health, yet again, will swing this series.

The Finals: 

#1 Golden State Warriors over #2 Cleveland Cavaliers, 4-3.

I have so much hesitation in picking these two teams to go to the Finals. For the most part, the annual NBA champion is a team that recently got to the conference finals or NBA finals and lost. It’s pretty rare when a team climbs the mountain on its first try. But I had a hard time picking anyone to beat the Warriors in the West, though the Spurs have been the bane of their existence all year. In this match-up, it’ll come down to defense. Both of these teams are electric on offense, but the Warriors are better defensively. However, Golden State would only win this series if Bogut stays healthy, and that’s a big “if.” I see Love fading in this series when guarded by Draymond Green and the combo of Green, Thompson, Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala doing enough to slow James down while Curry outguns Irving and home court advantage carries the Warriors to four home wins. 

My favorite backup Finals matchup: Bulls-Spurs. These teams have given Cleveland and Golden State problems and seem to be the next likeliest contenders. For fun: Chicago would lose that series 4-2. There’s just no way the Bulls would be able to defend the Spurs effectively when they start defensive sieves like Rose, Pau Gasol and Mike Dunleavy. On defense, the Bulls’ Jimmy Butler and Rose would be heavily defended by the Spurs’ Green and Leonard.