Daily MLB Fantasy Picks: April 21 – Wall Street Journal (blog)

As hard as it is to project a player’s performance in any given season, projecting his performance in a single game is even more difficult. But the one advantage with playing daily fantasy sports (rotisserie’s impatient cousin) is that the gratification is instant, as are the rewards — and you don’t have to live with disappointing choices tomorrow.

Daily fantasy baseball is all about trying to maximize each day’s matchups using historic performance, platoon advantages and ballpark effects. Using prices at FanDuel, which allows you to spend $35,000 fictional dollars to construct a starting lineup at every position including pitcher, we’re making the lineup recommendations every Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday (when all teams are generally playing) based on a combination of key metrics. But always check your lineups and the current weather.

We grade pitchers in 23 statistics in eight broad categories: working ahead in count, command, finishing off hitters, off-speed effectiveness, overall effectiveness, dominance, efficiency and battle tendency (such as getting guys out when behind in the count). The stats are compiled by Major League Baseball analytics provider Inside-Edge. As the season progresses, last year’s stats matter less and less until they eventually disappear.

The hitting slate is generally determined by choosing the hitters who Inside-Edge grades as hitting the ball hard most frequently this year and are facing the pitchers who have the lowest composite grade. Platoon advantages (lefty vs. righty and vice versa) are also considered.

April 21: Pitcher

Francisco Liriano, Pirates (vs. Cubs, $8,400):  The power lefty’s composite grade is 87.4 on a scale where 100 is perfect. Tuesday that trails only Carlos Carrasco (93) and Colin McHugh (89.4), who are not only more expensive ($9,100 and $8,900, respectively) but also toil in the tougher American League. Liriano also has a good chance to pile up the strikeouts and, thus, the points. Thus far, he has posted 14 punch outs in 13 innings (2.08 ERA) and has allowed just six hits, though two are homers. He’s volatile but the daily game is about ceilings, not floors.

 April 21: Hitters

Lucas Duda, 1B, Mets (vs. Braves, $4,000): Duda has the platoon advantage against one of the lowest-ranked pitchers on the slate, Trevor Cahill. Duda, a lefty, also benefits from the fences having been moved in at Citi Field. And he’s hitting the ball hard at a high rate again this year — 20.4% of at bats versus the league average of 15.4%.

Luis Valbuena, 3B, Astros (at Mariners, $3,200): A bargain third base option who is red hot and getting the platoon advantage against struggling rookie Taijuan Walker. Valbuena’s hard-hit rate thus far is 26.8% and that includes five homers already. Seattle is a tough park overall but not so much for lefties like Valbuena.

Jonny Gomes, OF, Braves (at New York Mets, $2,700): He feasts on lefties like the Mets Jonathan Niese. So let’s plug him along with his 21.7% hard-hit rate. Gomes has a .866 career on-base plus slugging percentage versus lefties. That’s elite and this price is bottom-shelf.

Delmon Young, OF, Orioles (at Blue Jays, $2,600): Batting fifth against Blue Jay starter Mark Buehrle because of his career line against him in 53 at bats: .396/.429/.660 with four homers.

Dioner Navarro, C, Blue Jays (vs. Baltimore Orioles, $2,400): The catching crop in baseball has been decimated of late. Navarro will be batting fifth in the lineup at DH and hitting lefty against one of the day’s weaker arms based on our metrics, righty Bud Norris. As a lefty hitter this year in very limited action, the switch-hitting Navarro has a hard-hit rate of 18.2%. According to Stats, LLC, Navarro’s has a .375 batting average and .688 slugging in 16 career at bats vs. Norris.

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