As fellow daily fantasy players flee from struggling MLB stars, grab a comfy seat on the empty bandwagon and enjoy the ride.

Misleading sample sizes provide opportunities to get lesser utilized, often cheaper commodities. Streaks come and go, so a smart DFS owner will target established presences bound to escape a funk rather than fluky flashes in the pan who torpedoed their stock with a few good games.

Don’t let small sample sizes—that includes you, batter vs. pitcher data—fool you into making suboptimal decisions regarding Sunday’s slate.

Ace: Stephen Strasburg ($10,100) vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

Yes, Stephen Strasburg has already allowed 19 hits and 11 runs—eight earned—through two starts. The ace was yanked in the sixth inning both times in contests the Washington Nationals lost.

While his 5.4 swinging-strike percentage presents some concern, he remains a stud facing a golden matchup against the light-hitting Philadelphia Phillies. As his .450 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) falls, so will his ERA. 

This is the same guy who notched 10.13 strikeouts per nine innings and a 2.94 fielding independent pitching (FIP) last season. Struggling against a streaking offense in the New York Mets and loaded Boston Red Sox lineup isn’t enough to abandon ship on a Cy Young contender who has recovered from slow starts before.

Last year, Strasburg exited his opening two outings with 13 hits and 10 runs surrendered. He allowed one run and struck out 12 his next start. Matt Harvey is a safer and slightly cheaper bet, but beware everyone else counting on the Dark Knight to save their lineup. 

Honorable Mentions: Matt Harvey vs. MIA ($9,900); Gerrit Cole vs. MIL ($8,400); Brandon McCarthy vs. COL ($8,000)

Value SP: Shane Greene ($6,000) vs. Chicago White Sox

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

This article’s rough draft originally opened with a snarky warning against Shane Greene under the notion that everyone will play the rolling Detroit Tigers hurler. Then DraftKings‘ prices came out, and he still costs pennies.

He’s going to allow a run eventually, and everybody is going to use him until it happens. But at $6,000—$100 less than Jeremy Hellickson and $300 more than Trevor May—he remains too valuable to pass up as a massively underpriced No. 2 starter.

Even before his first start, Greene was a DraftKings steal. Boasting a 9.27 K/9 rate alongside a 2.70 ERA away from Yankee Stadium last year, he entered 2015 with immense breakout potential. 

Although he has yet to match last year’s strikeout acumen with eight punchouts through 16 frames, he worked deep into both starts behind a potent Detroit offense. New additions aside, the Chicago White Sox ranked No. 25 in weighted on-base average (wOBA) before pounding Anibal Sanchez on Saturday. They’re not an opponent to target, but they’re not a club to avoid at all costs, either.

Eventually, Greene’s price and popularity will force gamers to stop going his way. As the ninth-cheapest starter in a full slate, that day has not yet come.

Honorable Mentions: James Paxton vs. TEX ($7,200); Daniel Norris vs. ATL ($5,800)

C: Travis d’Arnaud ($3,800) vs. Miami Marlins

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

With David Wright sidelined, the New York Mets have moved Travis d’Arnaud to the mouth-watering No. 2 hole. It’s not often an affordable catcher gets slotted so high in the batting order, and facing a hittable righty only helps his case.

Tom Koehler, who sports a 6.50 FIP through two starts, brandishes a career .262/.332/.433 opposing slash line versus right-handed hitters. Thus far in his young career, d’Arnaud has struggled against southpaws while producing a .313 wOBA against like-handed pitchers.

Having just taken Friday off before homering on Saturday, he should get the Sunday start with other regulars catching a breather. 

Honorable Mentions: Mike Zunino ($3,400) vs. TEX; Roberto Perez ($2,200) at MIN

1B Edwin Encarnacion ($4,500) vs. Atlanta Braves

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Since 2012, only Miguel Cabrera has crushed more home runs than Edwin Encarnacion. Because of a dozen rough games, however, DraftKings is giving users one of the game’s most feared hitters at a discount.

Shelby Miller has a 0.90 ERA, but his five strikeouts and four walks are playing with fire. Don’t shy away from someone who finished 2014 with a 4.54 FIP.

Also working in Encarnacion‘s favor, he’ll take hacks at Rogers Centre, where he owns a .524 slugging percentage since joining the Blue Jays in 2010. He’s going to start hitting again when his .179 BABIP stops stifling any progress.

Plate discipline also isn’t a skill batters forget, so treat his early 3.8 walk percentage as small-sample variance bound to return to the mean.

Honorable Mentions: David Ortiz ($4,600) vs. BAL; Victor Martinez ($4,100) vs. CHW; Mark Canha at KC ($3,400)

2B/SS: Brian Dozier ($4,300) vs. Cleveland Indians

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Brian Dozier’s favorable splits against southpaws outweigh worries from a sluggish start. Although a below-average batter against right-handed arms, the middle infielder demolishes lefties.

Not only is T.J. House a lefty, he’s a lefty who allowed nine baserunners and six runs before he could escape the second inning against Detroit. The 25-year-old posted solid peripherals last season, but righties clobber him, hitting .308/.369/.471.

He hasn’t showed it yet this month, but Dozier offers power and speed in bunches. Given the right matchup, he’s a terrific high-upside player who would cost much more if not for an early slump.

Honorable Mentions: 2B Jason Kipnis at MIN ($3,800); 2B Devon Travis vs. ATL ($3,500); SS/3B Marcus Semien at KC ($4,100); SS Everth Cabrera at BOS ($3,300)

3B: Jake Lamb ($3,800) at San Francisco Giants

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

Jake Lamb’s unsustainable .414 average will open some eyes, but his process is even more impressive. Through 35 plate appearances, the rookie has drawn six walks while striking out just three times.

Despite his 2.03 ERA, Tim Hudson’s process is far more worrying. The veteran has five strikeouts and walks apiece through 13.1 innings, and his already-low average fastball velocity has dipped to 87.4 miles per hour. 

Along with outfielders David Peralta and Ender Inciarte, Lamb leads a cheap stack of promising left-handed Arizona Diamondbacks.

Honorable Mentions: Chris Davis ($4,600) at BOS; Adrian Beltre ($4,400) at SEA; Eric Campbell ($2,800) vs. MIA

OF: Michael Brantley ($4,400), Brandon Moss ($4,200) and Michael Bourn ($3,600) at Minnesota Twins

Jim Mone/Associated Press

The Cleveland Indians’ lefty-loaded lineup makes a great stack against Minnesota’s Trevor May, who has yielded 45 earned runs through 51 career major league innings.

Cleveland’s outfielders all provide unique value opportunities. Having missed most of the young season with back ailments, Michael Brantley comes at a bargain. Barring a rest day, the No. 3 hitter should offer a sizable return on investment.

Paul Battaglia/Associated Press

Brandon Moss is a pure platoon pick for power, boasting a career .472 slugging percentage against righties. With a 42.0 fly-ball percentage, May is always in danger of getting burned deep, even if Target Field spares him for doubles instead of dingers. 

A struggling Bourn is the least alluring of the three, but he has frequently batted first against right-handers, and he stole copious bases once upon a time. The matchup makes him an intriguing cheap flier to round out a roster, particularly in tournament play.

Honorable Mentions: Kole Calhoun ($4,700) and Matt Joyce ($3,800) at HOU; David Peralta ($3,700) and Ender Inciarte ($3,500) at SF

All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.

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