Daily Dime: Stephen Strasburg, Matt Harvey and bargain hitting
By now you should all know the drill. We examine daily prices for 10 players, looking for bargains and busts. Let’s get to work…
Players to buy:
Stephen Strasburg, SP, vs. Phi (Buchanan), $9,800 at FanDuel: He’s off to a shaky start, but Strasburg posted a 2.56 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP with 140 strikeouts over 116.0 innings last year at home, where he’ll be pitching Sunday against a Phillies offense that’s been the worst in baseball in 2015. There’s always danger in dealing with Washington’s poor defense (namely Ian Desmond), but the Nats are the biggest favorites on the board by a wide margin (-230). There are plenty of bargains to be had on the hitting side, so feel free to pay up for your SP on Sunday, where there are a handful of aces available.
Matt Harvey, SP, vs. Mia (Koehler), $10,500: He may not pitch deep into games while recovering from TJ surgery, but Harvey’s sporting a 2.25 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP with a 17:1 K:BB ratio over 12.0 innings. The Marlins have also been susceptible to being fanned early on. The Mets are -190 in a game with the lowest O/U total (6.5) on the day.
Rickie Weeks, 2B, vs. Tex (Detwiler), $2,500: He has a strong track record against Ross Detwiler and typically hits lefties well. Weeks has also usually been used atop Seattle’s order when he’s in the lineup.
Erick Aybar, SS, at Hou (Feldman), $2,900: He’s off to an extremely slow start but owns a career .452/.485/.677 line over 31 career at bats against Scott Feldman.
Pedro Alvarez, 1B, vs. Mil (Garza), $3,400: He’s 8-for-18 with a .722 slugging percentage over 18 at bats over his career versus Matt Garza.
Torii Hunter, OF, vs. Cle (House), $2,200: He’s dirt cheap but typically hits well against southpaws, whereas T.J. House has struggled badly against right-handed batters. Hunter is a sneaky cheap play for someone in a favorable matchup hitting high in the lineup.
Matt Adams, 1B, vs. Cin (Leake), $3,200: He has a 1.278 career OPS against Mike Leake, who is homer-prone versus left-handed batters and has a lifetime 13.6 HR/FB%. Adams also has a 100-point edge at home compared to on the road during his career.
Wil Myers, OF, at Chi (Lester), $3,400: He has the righty/lefty matchup on his side and is hitting in a park that’s increased HR for RHB by 10 percent over the past three seasons. Jon Lester hasn’t given up a home run this year, but thanks in part to diminished velocity, nearly half his balls in play have been line drives (48.6%), as he looks vulnerable.
Players to fade:
Joey Votto, 1B, at Stl (Wainwright), $4,500: He’s 4-for-30 in his career against Adam Wainwright, resulting in a .133/.212/.267 line. Votto’s price tag remains that of a top-four first baseman Sunday nevertheless.
Adam Jones, OF, at Bos (Porcello), $4,800: He’s 4-for-24 with zero extra-base hits and a 6:0 K:BB ratio in his career against Rick Porcello. Jones’ price tag remains that of a top-four outfielder Sunday nevertheless.
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