Friday, April 17, 2015
As the time arrived to put together the final Roundball Stew of the season, it occurred to me that I was more inclined to discuss players who missed the playoffs as opposed to players headed for the postseason.
I think the main reason for that stems largely from this fact: Out of the top-25 players in Yahoo’s 9-category rankings (based on average stats), 20 of them are from playoff teams, and only five are from teams that missed the playoffs: Russell Westbrook, DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Rudy Gay. So at the moment, there are more players from postseason teams with well-established top-level value, and more players from non-playoff teams with value that’s a bit murkier (and therefore more interesting to discuss).
And while we’ll all get tons of chances to watch and evaluate players on playoff teams over the next couple of months, the players on non-playoff teams are about to disappear from box scores for a while. So before they fade too far, here’s a breakdown of some players (mostly from non-playoff squads) I’ll be eager to draft next season, and some others I’ll approach with more caution:
EAGER TO DRAFT
DeMarcus Cousins: He’s a somewhat obvious entry into the “Eager to Draft” category, but I include him here to remind you of his numbers before and after George Karl took over as head coach:
Before Karl: 23.8 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.4 spg, 1.7 bpg in 40 games
After Karl: 24.8 ppg, 13.1 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.8 spg, 1.8 bpg in 19 games
That’s not a dramatic spike, but any increase from DMC’s already elite numbers is notable. It’s also worth noting that he went especially berserk over his final 10 games: 27.9 ppg, 15.1 rpg, 5.1 apg, 1.9 spg and 2.3 bpg, including a 39-point, 20-rebound outing and back-to-back triple-doubles of 24-21-10 (with three steals, six blocks) and 24-20-13. Granted, he did end up missing Sacramento’s final six games, and sat out a total of 23 games on the season, but the outlook remains truly glorious for the 24-year-old Cousins heading into next year.
Editor’s Note: Play one-day fantasy basketball during the NBA playoffs! Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a $100,000 league for Saturday’s NBA games. It’s just $2 to join and first place wins $8,000. Starts Saturday at 12:30pm ET. Enter now!
Also: You can follow me on Twitter here.
Rudy Gay: While we’re still on the Kings, this is a reminder that Sacramento’s No. 2 option was pretty spectacular as well after Karl took over, posting 23.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.9 bpg and 1.6 3s in 20 games. Still just 28 years old (29 in August), and coming off career-best averages in points (21.1) and assists (3.7), Rudy Gay will be a name in bold font on my draft list this fall.
Andre Drummond: Remember when he started slowly, averaging a modest 8.3 ppg, 11.3 rpg and 1.6 bpg in his first 12 games? After that, Drummond averaged a much more characteristic 14.7 ppg, 13.8 rpg, 1.0 spg and 1.9 bpg in his final 70 games (yes, he played all 82). Even better, he finished with a true Drummondian flourish: 16.4 ppg, 14.9 rpg, 0.8 spg, 2.1 bpg in his last 20 games. Also worth a reminder: Drummond will be just 22 years old at the start of next season.
Nerlens Noel: Quite simply, he has a chance to make a truly rare impact defensively. From late January onward, Noel averaged 12.2 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 2.1 spg and 2.3 bpg in 34 games. No NBA player has averaged better than two steals and two blocks per game since Gerald Wallace in 2005-06 (15.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.5 spg and 2.1 bpg). As Noel heads into his second season, a jump to something like 14-15 points and 9-10 boards with two steals and two blocks would make him a wildly valuable fantasy option next year. Obviously he’s going to be on everyone’s radar, but given the upside, I’ll gladly make an early-round investment.
Rudy Gobert: Gobert’s season stats will look pretty good heading into next year (8.4 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 0.8 spg, 2.3 bpg), but those stats don’t come close to telling the full story. The key numbers to remember are what Gobert did after becoming a full-time starter in late February: 11.1 ppg, 13.4 rpg, 1.0 spg and 2.6 bpg in 29 games. It’s an interesting debate who to rank higher between Noel and Gobert, and it’s one I discuss in more detail in the video below:
Zach LaVine: Over his last 15 games, the No. 13 overall pick posted some flat-out dynamic stats: 19.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 5.7 apg, 0.7 spg and 1.7 3s. And if you look at just the last couple of weeks (LaVine’s last nine games), the numbers look even better: 21.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 6.6 apg, 0.8 spg and 1.6 3s. Granted, LaVine did all of this work with Ricky Rubio sidelined, so the Timberwolves will have to figure out how to make it work with both guards on the floor. I imagine they will though, either by playing the two of them together with LaVine at SG, or simply letting LaVine take over when Rubio gets hurt (after playing in just 22 games this season, Rubio has now averaged 51 games played in his four years in the league). Either way, this is exactly the kind of upside I want to take a chance on in my drafts.
Victor Oladipo: After moving to shooting guard full-time in late December, Oladipo averaged 19.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.8 spg and 1.2 3s. I’ll also be aggressively targeting the man who replaced him at PG, Elfrid Payton, who did a pretty tremendous Rubio impersonation down the stretch: 12.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 8.7 apg and 2.4 spg in his final 21 games, on a very not-Rubio 44.8 percent from the field.
HESITANT TO DRAFT
Tobias Harris: Overall he was pretty good when on the floor this season (17.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.0 spg, 1.3 3s), but he doesn’t block shots like he used to (1.4 bpg in his inspired 27-game run with Orlando two years ago, 0.5 in 129 games since). Furthermore, Harris missed 14 games this season after missing 21 the year before. And with a lucrative new contract coming his way in restricted free agency, I don’t expect him to go out of his way to become more adventurous in playing through ankle and knee tweaks in the first year of a long-term deal. Taking all of that into consideration, this will be the first time in the last few years that I’m inclined to let someone else draft Tobias.
Kenneth Faried: As you may have noticed, this was the second consecutive year that Faried pulled the slow start / late awakening routine. Consider the following numbers:
Last season, from March 1 onward: 19.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 1.1 spg, 0.8 bpg
This season, from March 3 onward: 16.3 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.1 spg, 1.0 bpg
Last season, overall numbers: 13.7 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 0.9 spg, 0.9 bpg
This season, overall numbers: 12.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 0.8 spg, 0.8 bpg
Don’t get me wrong – I like the strong finishes, but even with the late surge, Faried has only ended up with pretty good numbers, not great ones. I’d like to believe that he can spend a whole season posting the kinds of stats he’s been putting up in March and April – and I’m certainly not fully giving up on him – but I’m no longer willing to spend an early-round draft pick to find out.
George Hill: Hill was quite good when healthy this season (he only played in 43 games), and especially excellent during the stretch run, averaging 19.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 5.9 apg, 1.1 spg and 1.8 3s on 53.0 percent from the field over the final month (18 games). Even if you put aside this year’s injury issues, the concern is that with Paul George presumably at full speed next year, Hill’s stats take a notable hit. He certainly won’t fall off my draft list, but I’ll be projecting him closer to his numbers from 2012-13 (14.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 4.7 apg) rather than the big stats we saw at the end of the season.
Ricky Rubio: I had high hopes for Rubio heading into this season, but he was of course a monster letdown while playing in just 22 games, as detailed in the LaVine paragraph above. Given his injury woes I’m going to have a hard time drafting him next season. In fact, I should probably go ahead and move his name a few lines down, thereby putting him on…
ONE-YEAR DRAFT PROBATION
Carmelo Anthony: I assume this one is self-explanatory. With that said, I do expect him to play better (and presumably be healthier) in the second year of his contract, but too much damage was done emotionally for me to give him another chance in fantasy leagues right away. It’s a prove-it season for Melo as far as I’m concerned, and I’ll let him submit his proof on someone else’s fake roster.
Jrue Holiday and Bradley Beal: Since both of these two are in the playoffs, I’m writing this as a reminder to myself (and to you) not to get fooled by a healthy postseason run. Holiday has now missed 90 games the last two seasons, while Beal has played an average of just 64 games his three seasons in the league. Holiday and Beal are still just 24 and 21 years old, respectively, so I certainly wouldn’t rule out the possibility that both get their leg injury issues straightened out in the long run. However, given the frustration they’ve caused lately, I hereby forbid myself from drafting either of these players in 2015-16*.
NEVER DRAFT AGAIN
Dwight Howard: His scoring average (15.8) was his lowest since 2005-06, his rebounds (10.5) the second-lowest of his career and his 0.7 spg and 1.3 bpg both represented career-lows. And Howard did all of this while playing just 41 games, his lowest total ever. At age 29, now three years removed from his last 20-plus ppg season, it looks like Howard’s best days are decidedly behind him.
Derrick Rose: It’s such an obvious no, yet his name recognition is like a tractor beam when you’re sitting there in the draft room. If you find yourself encouraged by any good work he does in the playoffs, or positive reports this offseason, remember these numbers: Rose has played a total of 100 games the last four seasons, shot just 40.5 percent from the field in 2014-15 and hasn’t averaged better than 5 apg since 2011-12. Please, just stay away. (And yes, I’m reminding myself as much as I’m reminding you.)
*The author reserves the right to impulsively change his mind on clauses of this nature at any time.
As the time arrived to put together the final Roundball Stew of the season, it occurred to me that I was more inclined to discuss players who missed the playoffs as opposed to players headed for the postseason.
I think the main reason for that stems largely from this fact: Out of the top-25 players in Yahoo’s 9-category rankings (based on average stats), 20 of them are from playoff teams, and only five are from teams that missed the playoffs: Russell Westbrook, DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Rudy Gay. So at the moment, there are more players from postseason teams with well-established top-level value, and more players from non-playoff teams with value that’s a bit murkier (and therefore more interesting to discuss).
And while we’ll all get tons of chances to watch and evaluate players on playoff teams over the next couple of months, the players on non-playoff teams are about to disappear from box scores for a while. So before they fade too far, here’s a breakdown of some players (mostly from non-playoff squads) I’ll be eager to draft next season, and some others I’ll approach with more caution:
EAGER TO DRAFT
DeMarcus Cousins: He’s a somewhat obvious entry into the “Eager to Draft” category, but I include him here to remind you of his numbers before and after George Karl took over as head coach:
Before Karl: 23.8 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.4 spg, 1.7 bpg in 40 games
After Karl: 24.8 ppg, 13.1 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.8 spg, 1.8 bpg in 19 games
That’s not a dramatic spike, but any increase from DMC’s already elite numbers is notable. It’s also worth noting that he went especially berserk over his final 10 games: 27.9 ppg, 15.1 rpg, 5.1 apg, 1.9 spg and 2.3 bpg, including a 39-point, 20-rebound outing and back-to-back triple-doubles of 24-21-10 (with three steals, six blocks) and 24-20-13. Granted, he did end up missing Sacramento’s final six games, and sat out a total of 23 games on the season, but the outlook remains truly glorious for the 24-year-old Cousins heading into next year.
Editor’s Note: Play one-day fantasy basketball during the NBA playoffs! Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a $100,000 league for Saturday’s NBA games. It’s just $2 to join and first place wins $8,000. Starts Saturday at 12:30pm ET. Enter now!
Also: You can follow me on Twitter here.
Rudy Gay: While we’re still on the Kings, this is a reminder that Sacramento’s No. 2 option was pretty spectacular as well after Karl took over, posting 23.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.9 bpg and 1.6 3s in 20 games. Still just 28 years old (29 in August), and coming off career-best averages in points (21.1) and assists (3.7), Rudy Gay will be a name in bold font on my draft list this fall.
Andre Drummond: Remember when he started slowly, averaging a modest 8.3 ppg, 11.3 rpg and 1.6 bpg in his first 12 games? After that, Drummond averaged a much more characteristic 14.7 ppg, 13.8 rpg, 1.0 spg and 1.9 bpg in his final 70 games (yes, he played all 82). Even better, he finished with a true Drummondian flourish: 16.4 ppg, 14.9 rpg, 0.8 spg, 2.1 bpg in his last 20 games. Also worth a reminder: Drummond will be just 22 years old at the start of next season.
Nerlens Noel: Quite simply, he has a chance to make a truly rare impact defensively. From late January onward, Noel averaged 12.2 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 2.1 spg and 2.3 bpg in 34 games. No NBA player has averaged better than two steals and two blocks per game since Gerald Wallace in 2005-06 (15.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.5 spg and 2.1 bpg). As Noel heads into his second season, a jump to something like 14-15 points and 9-10 boards with two steals and two blocks would make him a wildly valuable fantasy option next year. Obviously he’s going to be on everyone’s radar, but given the upside, I’ll gladly make an early-round investment.
Rudy Gobert: Gobert’s season stats will look pretty good heading into next year (8.4 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 0.8 spg, 2.3 bpg), but those stats don’t come close to telling the full story. The key numbers to remember are what Gobert did after becoming a full-time starter in late February: 11.1 ppg, 13.4 rpg, 1.0 spg and 2.6 bpg in 29 games. It’s an interesting debate who to rank higher between Noel and Gobert, and it’s one I discuss in more detail in the video below:
Zach LaVine: Over his last 15 games, the No. 13 overall pick posted some flat-out dynamic stats: 19.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 5.7 apg, 0.7 spg and 1.7 3s. And if you look at just the last couple of weeks (LaVine’s last nine games), the numbers look even better: 21.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 6.6 apg, 0.8 spg and 1.6 3s. Granted, LaVine did all of this work with Ricky Rubio sidelined, so the Timberwolves will have to figure out how to make it work with both guards on the floor. I imagine they will though, either by playing the two of them together with LaVine at SG, or simply letting LaVine take over when Rubio gets hurt (after playing in just 22 games this season, Rubio has now averaged 51 games played in his four years in the league). Either way, this is exactly the kind of upside I want to take a chance on in my drafts.
Victor Oladipo: After moving to shooting guard full-time in late December, Oladipo averaged 19.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.8 spg and 1.2 3s. I’ll also be aggressively targeting the man who replaced him at PG, Elfrid Payton, who did a pretty tremendous Rubio impersonation down the stretch: 12.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 8.7 apg and 2.4 spg in his final 21 games, on a very not-Rubio 44.8 percent from the field.
HESITANT TO DRAFT
Tobias Harris: Overall he was pretty good when on the floor this season (17.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.0 spg, 1.3 3s), but he doesn’t block shots like he used to (1.4 bpg in his inspired 27-game run with Orlando two years ago, 0.5 in 129 games since). Furthermore, Harris missed 14 games this season after missing 21 the year before. And with a lucrative new contract coming his way in restricted free agency, I don’t expect him to go out of his way to become more adventurous in playing through ankle and knee tweaks in the first year of a long-term deal. Taking all of that into consideration, this will be the first time in the last few years that I’m inclined to let someone else draft Tobias.
Kenneth Faried: As you may have noticed, this was the second consecutive year that Faried pulled the slow start / late awakening routine. Consider the following numbers:
Last season, from March 1 onward: 19.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 1.1 spg, 0.8 bpg
This season, from March 3 onward: 16.3 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.1 spg, 1.0 bpg
Last season, overall numbers: 13.7 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 0.9 spg, 0.9 bpg
This season, overall numbers: 12.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 0.8 spg, 0.8 bpg
Don’t get me wrong – I like the strong finishes, but even with the late surge, Faried has only ended up with pretty good numbers, not great ones. I’d like to believe that he can spend a whole season posting the kinds of stats he’s been putting up in March and April – and I’m certainly not fully giving up on him – but I’m no longer willing to spend an early-round draft pick to find out.
George Hill: Hill was quite good when healthy this season (he only played in 43 games), and especially excellent during the stretch run, averaging 19.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 5.9 apg, 1.1 spg and 1.8 3s on 53.0 percent from the field over the final month (18 games). Even if you put aside this year’s injury issues, the concern is that with Paul George presumably at full speed next year, Hill’s stats take a notable hit. He certainly won’t fall off my draft list, but I’ll be projecting him closer to his numbers from 2012-13 (14.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 4.7 apg) rather than the big stats we saw at the end of the season.
Ricky Rubio: I had high hopes for Rubio heading into this season, but he was of course a monster letdown while playing in just 22 games, as detailed in the LaVine paragraph above. Given his injury woes I’m going to have a hard time drafting him next season. In fact, I should probably go ahead and move his name a few lines down, thereby putting him on…
ONE-YEAR DRAFT PROBATION
Carmelo Anthony: I assume this one is self-explanatory. With that said, I do expect him to play better (and presumably be healthier) in the second year of his contract, but too much damage was done emotionally for me to give him another chance in fantasy leagues right away. It’s a prove-it season for Melo as far as I’m concerned, and I’ll let him submit his proof on someone else’s fake roster.
Jrue Holiday and Bradley Beal: Since both of these two are in the playoffs, I’m writing this as a reminder to myself (and to you) not to get fooled by a healthy postseason run. Holiday has now missed 90 games the last two seasons, while Beal has played an average of just 64 games his three seasons in the league. Holiday and Beal are still just 24 and 21 years old, respectively, so I certainly wouldn’t rule out the possibility that both get their leg injury issues straightened out in the long run. However, given the frustration they’ve caused lately, I hereby forbid myself from drafting either of these players in 2015-16*.
NEVER DRAFT AGAIN
Dwight Howard: His scoring average (15.8) was his lowest since 2005-06, his rebounds (10.5) the second-lowest of his career and his 0.7 spg and 1.3 bpg both represented career-lows. And Howard did all of this while playing just 41 games, his lowest total ever. At age 29, now three years removed from his last 20-plus ppg season, it looks like Howard’s best days are decidedly behind him.
Derrick Rose: It’s such an obvious no, yet his name recognition is like a tractor beam when you’re sitting there in the draft room. If you find yourself encouraged by any good work he does in the playoffs, or positive reports this offseason, remember these numbers: Rose has played a total of 100 games the last four seasons, shot just 40.5 percent from the field in 2014-15 and hasn’t averaged better than 5 apg since 2011-12. Please, just stay away. (And yes, I’m reminding myself as much as I’m reminding you.)
*The author reserves the right to impulsively change his mind on clauses of this nature at any time.
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