NBA Playoff Preview and Predictions: New Contenders Emerge – New York Times
By BENJAMIN HOFFMAN
April 17, 2015
When the Cleveland Cavaliers announced that they had made a trade for the All-Star forward Kevin Love, pairing him with the returning LeBron James, one of the worst teams in basketball became a championship contender. Amid the “Coming Home” hoopla, someone forgot to tell the Golden State Warriors and the Atlanta Hawks that this was Cleveland’s year.
As the Cavaliers worked to find their identity, the Warriors and the Hawks rolled to insurmountable leads in their conferences by playing team basketball (with a healthy dose of star power).
A championship for either team would be a major shake-up for the dynasty-prone N.B.A. Warriors fans have been waiting for another title since Rick Barry brought one home in 1974-75. It has been an even longer wait for the Hawks, who have not won a title since 1957-58, when they were still in St. Louis.
James has the Cavaliers rolling, and Tim Duncan could make the San Antonio Spurs a championship contender until he is collecting Social Security, but two perennial also-rans entering the playoffs as No. 1 seeds gives this postseason a feeling of newness that has been missing for years.
Western Conference
No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs No. 8 New Orleans Pelicans
There is a perception that Golden State lives and dies with the Splash Brothers. Highlights of their games consist mostly of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson knocking down seemingly impossible 3-pointers and celebrating with reckless abandon. But the Warriors are not who you think they are.
Having gone from a disorganized collection of talent under Coach Mark Jackson last season to a ruthlessly efficient machine under Coach Steve Kerr, the Warriors have the defensive pieces to shut down any offense, and enough variety on offense that a cold streak by Curry or Thompson would not sink their chances. Players like Andrew Bogut, Draymond Green, Marreese Speights and Andre Iguodala may not get much face time on ESPN, but they go out and win games.
The Pelicans have the best player on the court in Anthony Davis, but he does not have nearly enough talent surrounding him to knock off the N.B.A.’s most complete team.
Pick: Warriors
No. 2 Houston Rockets vs. No. 7 Dallas Mavericks
Another team might tell James Harden to work on his flaws. His 321 turnovers were the most a player had recorded in a season since Allen Iverson had 344 in 2004-5. He hit 208 3-pointers, but had to miss 347 to get there. And he occasionally seems like he is not trying very hard on defense.
Luckily the Rockets are not other teams. Under the direction of Daryl Morey, the team’s general manager, Houston has put all of its eggs in Harden’s basket, and he almost single-handedly led the team to the No. 2 seed in the N.B.A.’s tougher conference. His turnovers could not stop him from recording a career-high 26.7 player efficiency rating and his 3-pointers, and an N.B.A.-leading 715 made free throws, led to a whopping 27.4 points a game.
There is no telling how much the Rockets can expect from Dwight Howard in this series, and the Mavericks will never be pushovers with Dirk Nowitzki around, but Harden’s one-man show appears headed for another act in the second round.
Pick: Rockets
No. 3 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 6 San Antonio Spurs
Everyone knows about Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, but this series could be the coming-out party DeAndre Jordan richly deserves. Jordan, a massive center, fell short of the N.B.A. record for field goal percentage — 71 percent to Wilt Chamberlain’s 72.7 in 1972-73 — but he led the league in rebounding at 15 a game while also averaging 11.5 points and 2.2 blocks. Coach Doc Rivers believes Jordan is the best defensive player in the N.B.A., and has compared him in the past to Bill Russell.
The Spurs are a smart team, and Coach Gregg Popovich is a brilliant strategist, but it will be interesting to see if they resort to Hack-a-Dre to advance, as Jordan is one of the worst free throw shooters in N.B.A. history.
Counting out the Spurs in any playoff series is a bad idea, but with both teams having finished the season strong, the one with the younger legs seems like a better bet.
Pick: Clippers
No. 4 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies
At full strength, the Trail Blazers are a force to be reckoned with. LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the league’s best forwards, Wesley Matthews is a deadly outside shooter, Nicolas Batum can do a little of everything and Damian Lillard makes everyone around him better.
Unfortunately, Matthews is out for the season, Aldridge has dealt with injuries to both hands and Batum has been on and off the court with various injuries.
That is bad news when going against the Grizzlies. Memphis, with a core of Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, Tony Allen and Mike Conley, has often seemed on the verge of something big, and if Randolph was not suspended for a game in last year’s playoffs, the Grizzlies may well have advanced past the No. 2-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.
Under Coach Terry Stotts, Portland is 2-9 against Memphis and was swept in four games this season. That trend should continue.
Pick: Grizzlies
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 8 Nets
Anyone suggesting that this series is a test of whether the Hawks were as good as they seemed for much of this season certainly thinks more of the Nets than Paul Pierce or Kevin Garnett did.
Accused of being soft by two of the team’s top players in recent years, the Nets are not the nonentity some think, but they are a bit of a mess. Brook Lopez proved his health, and his immense talent, with a 25-game stretch to end the season in which he averaged 20.7 points and 9.1 rebounds a game, collecting two player of the week awards for his trouble. Thaddeus Young also proved to be a good fit, but it is unclear how much star power Deron Williams and Joe Johnson have left, regardless of the amount of money they are still owed.
The Hawks reinvented themselves this season as an unselfish and talented team, and their four All-Stars — Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, Al Horford and Paul Millsap — are far too much for Brooklyn to handle.
Pick: Hawks
No. 2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs No. 7 Boston Celtics
Saying the Celtics do not have a player on their roster who would start for the Cavaliers is not untrue, though it is worth pointing out that Boston’s most exciting player, Isaiah Thomas, does not even start on his own team.
This series feels like a tuneup for the Cavaliers, as they try to see if an incredible offense, led by LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, can succeed in the playoffs despite a defense that is rather pedestrian. Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert were shrewd in-season pickups to balance out a roster that started out disappointingly, and their additions have plenty of pundits who wondered if we were seeing the beginning of James’s end looking awfully foolish.
Coach Brad Stevens has gotten more out of the Boston roster than anyone expected, and should be in the running for coach of the year with Steve Kerr, but, realistically, winning a game in this series would qualify as a mild surprise.
Pick: Cavaliers
No. 3 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 6 Milwaukee Bucks
It seems almost unfair that the Bulls, with a core of Joakim Noah, Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson, would get to add Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic to the mix.
Everyone knows what Gasol can offer a team, but Mirotic, a 6-foot-10 forward from Montenegro, was a bit of a mystery coming into the season. It took him awhile to earn the trust of Coach Tom Thibodeau, but after the All-Star break his minutes drastically increased and he responded by averaging 16 points and 6.3 rebounds a game.
While clearly the favorite, especially if Rose is healthy, the Bulls will be forced to grind things out against the Bucks. Coach Jason Kidd may not win any loyalty awards after engineering his exit from Brooklyn, but his two seasons on the sideline have established that the teams he leads will overachieve by being relentless at forcing turnovers, which was the way he was as a player.
Pick: Bulls
No. 4. Toronto Raptors vs. No. 5 Washington Wizards
When accused of quitting in a loss to the Golden State Warriors earlier this season, Bradley Beal of the Wizards mostly agreed with the criticism and added that his team did not play hard. John Wall disagreed, saying they did not quit but were just outplayed. Wizards fans were very likely not inspired by either response.
The Raptors have a fantastic fan base, and some talented players in DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Louis Williams and Jonas Valanciunas, but they are the prototypical middle-tier Eastern Conference contender: They play well on occasion but should not scare any real teams.
Many are predicting a seven-game series, and there could be more than a few tightly contested games, but both teams are auditioning to lose to a better team in the second round, so it will be hard to pay the series much heed.
Pick: Wizards
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.