Dan Devine’s Inarguable Power Rankings: 2015 first-round playoff matchups
After six long months, we’re finally here, on the cusp of the 2015 NBA Playoffs. We’re down to 16 teams — perhaps not the 16 best, but don’t worry, Adam Silver’s working on it — set to face off in eight opening-round matchups for the right to advance to the conference semifinals and take one step closer to hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
The Eastern and Western brackets weren’t set in stone until late on the final night of the regular season, but now we know who’s playing who, when and where each series will start, and where we can watch. (If you’re not sure about any of that, please peruse our trusty 2015 NBA playoff schedule. With all that in place, the question now before us is this:
Which first-round playoff matchup is best and most watchable?
In the interest of providing guidance to BDL’s readership in a trying time, I submit to a trusting public a new installment of Dan Devine’s Inarguable Power Rankings, my ongoing attempt to identify which items in a group of things are most powerful. In this episode: Dan Devine’s Inarguable 2015 First-Round Playoff Matchup Power Rankings.
Settle in, dig in and weigh in with your thoughts on which opening-round series will be the best, either in the comments, on Twitter or on Facebook. And please remember, as always, that the list is the list.
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8. No. 1 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 8 Brooklyn Nets
[Related: Read our full Hawks-Nets series preview]
I’m with Brooklyn head coach Lionel Hollins: I don’t think Brooklyn, a team that barely scraped its way into the No. 8 seed, really has any advantages over Atlanta, a team that shocked many pundits by racing to the top of the East and reeling off a franchise-record 19 straight wins behind a balanced attack that earned Atlanta’s entire starting five conference Player of the Month honors in January. Atlanta’s really good, and Brooklyn’s kind of just lucky to be here. (Especially because, had they missed the playoffs, they would have given the Hawks a lottery pick, by way of the pick-swap rights Atlanta holds over the Nets’ 2015 first-rounder as part of the Joe Johnson trade three years ago.)
The Nets could find a spark if center Brook Lopez goes off, if rookie Markel Brown can call down some thunder, or if reserve Bojan Bogdanovic (42.9 percent from 3-point land since the All-Star break) starts shooting the lights out. Beyond that, though, there seem to be precious few reasons for Brooklyn fans to buy in — I half-expect Barclays Center to sound like a library during Games 3 and 4, save for the public address announcer entreating the crowd to chant “BROOOOOOK-LYN” in that “DAAAAAR-YL” sing-song that still sounds more than vaguely sarcastic — and even fewer to expect this to competitive or highlight-rich enough to hold our interest. The Hawks are awesome and very fun to watch, but I wouldn’t begrudge a casual fan waiting a couple of weeks to see them get to work against better opposition.
7. No. 3 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 6 Milwaukee Bucks
[Related: Read our full Bulls-Bucks series preview]
I’m not sure this will be particularly exciting, either, but it does have enough stuff I’m interested in — Derrick Rose’s return to playoff action for the first time since 2012, the playoff debut of 20-year-old Greek wunderkind Giannis Antetokounmpo, whether Jason Kidd can come up with a means of short-circuiting Tom Thibodeau’s strong-side overload zone defense to create enough open 3s for the Bucks to have a puncher’s chance against a superior opponent — to slot it in ahead of Hawks-Nets.
I eagerly await Giannis doing at least one thing that turns us all into Reggie Evans:
6. No. 4 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 5 Washington Wizards
[Related: Read our full Raptors-Wizards series preview]
I’ll be honest: I haven’t found either the Raptors or the Wizards to be particularly compelling all year, with the exception of Toronto’s early-season surge. Just about the only thing that can redeem the snoozefest that is Randy Wittman’s offense is an All-Star playmaking point guard, so it’s a good thing that the Wizards have John Wall. But even watching Wall cook can at times just make me imagine what he’d look like in a system more comfortable with pushing the pace and that gives him more space to operate, and with a roster that gives him more shooters to pick out.
Similarly, as awesome as Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Lou Williams can be offensively, and as productive as Toronto’s been en route to the league’s No. 3 offense, the Raptors can sometimes seem a chore, a team relying on a somewhat unimaginative scheme that can tend to produce an awful lot of early deep jumpers for its All-Star backcourt rather than something spicier.
Still, there are upsides. Wall on the break is must-see TV and Lowry is an absolute bulldog; their head-to-head matchup could decide the series, and neither figures to give or request an inch of quarter. The Air Canada Centre — and Maple Leaf Square outside it, a.k.a. “Jurassic Park” — proved to be a phenomenal playoff atmosphere during Toronto’s opening-round series with the Brooklyn Nets last spring. There’s Drake vs. Wale! (Well, kind of.)
And, thanks to perpetual instigator Paul Pierce, there’s some static surrounding this series, as DeRozan will get his “wish” of seeing Pierce — who helped knock the Raptors out in Round 1 last year — after the veteran forward said Toronto didn’t have that “it” factor that makes opponents scared to face them. If you’re going to have a vanilla-ish series between two teams that stumbled in the second half of the season, it should at least feature some hurt feelings.
5. No. 4 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies
[Related: Read our full Blazers-Grizzlies series preview]
Two tremendous playoff atmospheres in the Moda Center (let’s just call it the Rose Garden) and the FedEx Forum (let’s just call it the Grindhouse). Two desperate, injury-plagued teams trying to rediscover their early-season form on the fly to stave off elimination.
All-Stars LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard, forever on raining down fire on the opposition through unguardable high-release 18-footers or quick-hitch pull-up 25-footers. The Blazers’ death-from-above offense vs. Memphis’ desire to drag you down in the mud. Tony Allen’s turnover dance, and Tony Allen’s appreciation of other people doing his turnover dance. The possibility of Robin Lopez learning that, in Memphis, even the mascots don’t bluff.
I’m bummed that we won’t see a full-strength matchup between two teams that had legitimate title aspirations just a couple of months ago. Even with both rosters compromised, though, this ought to be a super-enjoyable slugfest that could spawn a new Western rivalry.
4. No. 2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 7 Boston Celtics
[Related: Read our full Cavaliers-Celtics series preview]
The Cavs have been one of the best shows in the NBA over the past three months, with an offense helmed by LeBron James and Kyrie Irving that’s capable of devastating even very good NBA defenses — Kyrie’s 55- and 57-point explosions against Portland (then second in the league in defensive efficiency) and San Antonio (then tied for eighth) come to mind, as does LeBron leading a reserve-heavy small-ball lineup to a late-game pasting of the Bucks (then second) — by virtue of its sheer overwhelming talent.
The chance to watch a master work as Irving and Kevin Love get their first taste of postseason play ought to be worth the price of admission alone. The prospect of a feisty underdog Celtics team making a better-than-expected showing behind the in-game coaching of Brad Stevens and the scoring of mighty-mite Isaiah Thomas could keep our interest longer than expected.
3. No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 8 New Orleans Pelicans
[Related: Read our full Warriors-Pelicans series preview]
This matchup features perhaps the two most visually compelling and arrestingly watchable players in the postseason: Warriors carpet-bomber Stephen Curry and Pelicans evolutionary inflection point Anthony Davis. It will unfold in two great venues — Oracle Arena, arguably the most rollicking home gym in the association, and Smoothie King Center, whose denizens seemed playoff-ready in their full-throat cheering during the Pelicans’ playoff-berth-clinching win over the Spurs. It ranks this low only because it feels unlikely that we’ll get very many games.
As has been covered here and elsewhere, Golden State has been historically good this year, finishing the regular season with the league’s No. 2 offense and No. 1 offense while playing at the NBA’s fastest pace. It’s really, really hard to be that efficient when jamming so many possessions into a game, but the Warriors made it look almost effortless, tying for the sixth-highest win total ever and becoming only the eighth team ever to finish a season having outscored its opposition by at least 10 points per game. (Six of the other seven went on to win the title; tough break, 1971-72 Bucks!)
The Dubs favor a freewheeling, motion-heavy offense crafted by head coach Steve Kerr and assistant Alvin Gentry. They play with a snarl on defense in a switch-heavy scheme developed by respected coordinator Ron Adams and carried out by Defensive Player of the Year candidates Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut. Both Curry and All-Star backcourt partner Klay Thompson can get unconscious instantaneously, reaching higher planes of existence to bury opponents and turn close games into laughers in the time it takes to say, “Mark Jackson was right.” This is just about everything you could want from a basketball team in 2015; they make you expect jaw-dropping plays, then drop your jaw anyway by delivering.
Replace “team” with “player” in that last sentence, and you’ve got a sound description for Davis, the unibrowed wonder who just concluded a season so phenomenally productive that, by one metric, it puts him in the company of Wilt Chamberlain, LeBron James, Michael Jordan and literally nobody else. This is where we note that he also just turned 22 years old.
Everyone expected Davis to be great coming out of Kentucky, but he seems to be improving so quickly and by such massive leaps and bounds that there’s almost no telling what he might do next. No longer content to merely be a nightmare diving to the rim for lobs after setting screens, he’s now one of the game’s best pick-and-pop partners. No longer content to merely lead the league in blocks, he’s now also a full-tilt offense-wrecker, blowing up pick-and-rolls, recovering to protect the rim, harassing guards on switches and making opponents change the release point, arc and angle of their shots through the threat of his presence. He also appears to be so good in the clutch as to be nearly unbelievable.
If it is possible that he has another gear to reach in his postseason debut, then it is possible — possible — that the Warriors won’t have the best player in this series. Finding out whether that’s true will be appointment viewing, even if the general talent disparity between Golden State and New Orleans means we might not have to clear our calendars for too many nights.
2. No. 2 Houston Rockets vs. No. 7 Dallas Mavericks
[Related: Read our full Rockets-Mavericks series preview]
Off the court, you’ve got the long-broiling beef between Mavericks owner Mark Cuban and Rockets general manager Daryl Morey, which ought to lead to some 140-character broadsides. On the court, you’ve got a slew of equally intriguing elements. Chief among them: how Mavericks tactician Rick Carlisle schemes to slow the seemingly irresistible offensive force that is James Harden, and whether the eternally enigmatic backcourt of Rajon Rondo and Monta Ellis can continue its season-closing offensive surge (lineups featuring that pair scored 109.2 points per 100 possessions in April, a massive improvement over previous months) against a Rockets defense that’s been stout all year but comes in without lead dog Patrick Beverley.
There’s the prospect of Dirk Nowitzki having one last run in the sun, herky-jerking his way around the block before fading away and arcing unblockable parabolas over hapless defenders. There’s Chandler Parsons’ postseason return to Clutch City, which may or may not be impeded by a right knee injury that cost him the final four games of the season, but seems to be coming along nicely. There’s Dwight Howard’s attempt to redeem an injury-plagued season with the same sort of excellent performance he provided in the opening round last year — 26 points, 13.7 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game against Portland — while arriving at a different conclusion.
It’s an embarrassment of storyline riches, all delivered by two teams with plenty of personalities that can put up points in bunches — a near-perfect opening-round feast. It’s just not as good as this:
1. No. 3 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 6 San Antonio Spurs
[Related: Read our full Clippers-Spurs series preview]
They’ve been two of the four best teams in the NBA since the All-Star break. L.A. closed the season on a 14-2 run after getting All-Star power forward Blake Griffin back from elbow surgery to seize third place in the West. Their reward? A first-round matchup with the peaking-at-the-right-time defending champs, the only team whose offense more summarily scorched the opposition than the Clips’ over the final month. We never promised you a rose garden, Clippers fans.
You’d expect neither Gregg Popovich nor Doc Rivers were especially excited by this first-round draw, but for the rest of us, there’s just so much here to love. San Antonio’s egalitarian ball- and player-movement-based offense vs. Chris Paul’s benevolent dictatorship. DeAndre Jordan trying to dissuade drivers from entering the paint vs. Kawhi Leonard trying to convince ball-handlers to come anywhere near him. Those brilliant possessions where the muscular, spring-legged combo of Griffin and Jordan seem confounded by the interior trickery of imperious circus mystic Boris Diaw and Tiago Splitter, who always looks like he’s just about to trip and fall over right before he hits you with the up-and-under.
Danny Green and J.J. Redick running half-court marathons and trading long-range bombs. Jamal Crawford trying to shake off late-season injury woes to carry a clearly lacking Clippers bench. Manu Ginobili doing the same to lead the quietly subpar “Foreign Legion.” The Clips trying to develop an actual home-court advantage against a San Antonio side whose home/road splits, even during that 21-4 finish, show why they pushed so hard to try to snag the No. 2 seed.
The league’s most successful franchise over the past decade and a half trying to keep the contending window of the Hall of Fame trio of Ginobili, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker open just a little bit longer, and a cash-splashing rival trying to prove that this really is a new day for L.A.’s long-benighted little brother.
Stars and points and steals and swats and dunks and dimes and plenty of them. Even if Pop goes Hack-a-DeAndre early and often, this still ought to be brilliant. If he doesn’t, it could be an all-time classic.
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Dan Devine is an editor for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
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