Stanley Cup Playoff Preview: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings
(Ed. Note: There are five Canadian teams in the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs, trying their hardest to recapture Lord Stanley’s Cup and return it to the Great White North after it’s been in the grimy, unworthy hands of American teams since 1994. Here is Puck Daddy’s Playoff Preview for the first round, complete with a celebration of their Canadian elements.)
Thanks to the NHL’s new Stanley Cup Playoffs format, along with realignment, we finally get the Yzerman Cup.
The Detroit Red Wings legend and now Tampa Bay Lightning general manager will garner a lot of attention during this series, but the team he’s assembled will draw even more as they have high hopes for a second championship.
Tampa finished second in the Atlantic Division, two points behind the Montreal Canadiens. Eight points behind the Lightning were the Red Wings, who head into Game 1 with big-time goalie issues; for now, at least.
Is this the start of a deep Lightning run or will Mike Babcock lead his charges to a first-round upset?
Forwards
No teams scored more during the regular season than the Lightning. Their 262 goals were 10 more than the New York Rangers for tops in the Eastern Conference. Steven Stamkos continued to do Steven Stamkos things with 43 goals, while Nikita Kucherov and Tyler Johnson had strong sophomore seasons after netting 29 apiece.
But the Tampa offense doesn’t end there. Ondrej Palat put up 63 points. Ryan Callahan scored 24 times. Valtteri Filppula recorded 48 points, while bottom-sixers Alex Killorn, Brian Boyle and Cedric Paquette each hit double digits in goals. If Jonathan Drouin, who will be healthy scratched for Game 1, can continue his late-season form, that’s an added bonus.
Up front, Detroit is led by its two veterans: captain Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk. The vets led the team in scoring with 66 and 65 points, respectively. Right behind them is the next wave of Red Wings youngsters that the franchise has continually developed for years. Tomas Tatar broke out with 29 goals; Gustav Nyquist scored 29 times and recorded 54 points; and Riley Sheahan chipped in 13.
For some added depth, GM Ken Holland went out and acquired Erik Cole at the trade deadline, but the veteran forward’s season is over with a spinal contusion. Injured, but still hopeful of returning is Justin Abdelkader (23 goals), who hurt his hand last week. He’ll miss at least Game 1.
ADVANTAGE: Lightning
Defense
The Lightning will get Braydon Coburn back for Game 1 after he’s been dealing with an upper-body injury since March 10. Out for the start of the series will be Andrej Sustr (72 GP, 13 points) and Jason Garrison (30 points, 20:00 TOI).
The rest of the blueline will be led by Anton Stralman, who was second among all NHL defenseman with 1,000 minutes played in score-adjusted CF% with 57.13. Along with strong possession numbers, Stralman led the Lightning in scoring from the back with 9 goals and 39 points. Right behind him is Victor Hedman, who posted 10 goal and 38 points in only 59 games this season. Matt Carle won’t be relied upon for offense like his defense-mates, but he’ll play a key role on the penalty kill after averaging over two minutes there this season.
Detroit uses its top two pairings heavily, so they’ll will have their work cut out for them trying to slow Tampa’s forwards. Niklas Kronwall (44 points) and Jonathan Ericsson (50.47 CF%) play the toughest minutes of the group. Alexey Marchenko played only 13 games during the regular season, but he’ll be inserted into the lineup for Game 1 in place of Brendan Smith.
Kyle Quincey (19:38 TOI), Marek Zidlicky (3 goals, 11 points since trade from New Jersey) and Danny DeKeyser (31 points, 20:55 TOI) round out the back end.
ADVANTAGE: Lightning
Gustav Nyquist’s goal. Steve Yzerman’s goal. Practically cousins.
Goaltending
Petr Mrazek is your No. 1 starter for the Red Wings for Game 1. Who will get the nod in Game 2? That remains to be seen, but Jimmy Howard’s play down the stretch warranted Mike Babcock to make a decision and Mrazek played better in the head coach’s eyes to get the start. Ben Bishop, meanwhile, finally gets his playoff chance as a No. 1 after being injured for Tampa’s opening round series in 2014. He posted a .919 even strength save percentage during the regular season, a below average mark that could give Detroit some hope in the series.
ADVANTAGE: Lightning
Red Wings: 7. They should name them the Detroit Red Swedes.
Lightning: 8. Tampa is an idea place for Canadian snowbirds.
Coaches
Mike Babcock has found a way to keep the Red Wings a playoff team despite the team’s ups and downs since they went to back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals in 2008 and 2009, winning one. No matter what kind of turnover his roster had, he continues to win. While his future with the franchise remains unclear, the contract situation has not provided to be a distraction.
Jon Cooper gets a second shot at the postseason after last season’s disappointing sweep by the Montreal Canadiens. He’s won at every level he’s coached at and had great success in Tampa since being hired in 2013. Will that championship follow him to the NHL?
ADVANTAGE: Red Wings
Special Teams
You might think that with Stamkos on their roster that the Lightning would be better with the extra man, but they ended up finishing 14th (18.8-percent) in the NHL. Stamkos did his part, firing in 13 power play goals, with Callahan next with 10. After Johnson’s 8, twelve other players contributed on the power play. Garrison’s production with the extra man has slowly declined since his breakout year in 2011-12. Tampa’s penalty kill finished top-10 (83.7-percent), with Boyle and Stralman logging 2:30 a game. The team finished with seven shorthanded goals.
The Red Wings, meanwhile, scored the most power play goals in the league (70), but ended up finishing second overall with a 23.8-percent success rate, the franchise’s best mark since 2008-09 when they led the NHL. They won’t be that dominant against Tampa, especially coming off a late-season slide, but there are enough weapons to create chances. Zidlicky’s acquisition helps, and he chipped in 8 power play points since the trade, but the big dogs will still be looked upon to provide the offense. Nyquist led the team with 14 PPGs, followed by Tatar’s 9 and Zetterberg and Abdelkader’s 8.
ADVANTAGE: Even
Red Wings: Daniel Cleary. A Newfie boy, Canada’s greatest province.
Lightning: Braydon Coburn. The face of a good Canadian boy!
Players To Watch
If Tampa makes a deep playoff run like many expect, look for Tyler Johnson to be a Conn Smythe Trophy favorite.
For the Red Wings, whoever their No. 1 goalie turns out to be. First up, Petr Mrazek!
Prediction
Lightning in five. Tampa didn’t have Bishop last year and were promply swept by the Montreal Canadiens. A year later, a year improved and with another year of experience under the belts of some of their young kids, the Lightning looked primed to make a run in the East. Stanley Cup finalists always seem to have one short series during their path. This will be the one for Tampa.
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