BDL’s 2014-15 NBA Playoff Previews: Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans
How They Got Here
• Golden State: Pegged as a mid-level playoff team and dark-horse contender entering the season, the Warriors merely had the best regular season in franchise history and arguably one of the best for any team ever. Their 67 wins are tied for the sixth-most all-time, while their average point differential of plus-10.1 beat the next closest team by 3.5 ppg. Only seven other teams have ever topped plus-10 over a full season, and only one of those didn’t win the title. The postseason operates differently than the regular season, but they’re not so far away as to keep the Warriors from entering the playoffs as favorites to win the whole thing. It doesn’t hurt that they have homecourt advantage throughout and went lost just two games at Oracle Arena all season.
Virtually everything went right for Golden State to get to this point, but let’s start with the man in charge. Steve Kerr replaced Mark Jackson as head coach last summer, built on the positives from two consecutive playoff appearances, and ramped up pretty much everything else to create a team with no glaring weaknesses. Stephen Curry earned the MVP award he’s likely to accept in a few weeks, Klay Thompson went from a very good young player the team wouldn’t trade for Kevin Love to a bona fide All-Star, Draymond Green turned into a defensive dynamo who could get the max as a restricted free agent this summer, Harrison Barnes remembered how to be effective, and Andrew Bogut stayed healthy enough to play 67 games. Kerr managed every ego probably, made halftime adjustments with his staff that belie his lack of experience, and even got David Lee, the highest-paid player on the team and a 2013 All-Star, to accept a non-rotation role without causing a stink. The biggest knock against Kerr is that he pushed his key players relatively hard after the Warriors had clinched the conference’s top seed, but that’s mostly a matter of opinion or approach at this point.
Golden State finished with the best defensive efficiency in the league, 0.1 points per 100 possessions off the Los Angeles Clippers’ lead for tops in offensive efficiency, and first in a whole bunch of traditional categories, as well. Kerr has never coached a playoff series and zero players on the roster have appeared in the NBA Finals, but this is a team to be feared. They crushed good opponents with regularity and had fun doing it.
• New Orleans: The Pelicans entered this season with hopes of a playoff berth but no clear way to get it. Luckily for them, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s terrible run of injury luck gave them the opportunity they previously lacked. New Orleans stayed at a steady level of consistency most of the season — their longest win streak was just five games — and took advantage of one of the most improbable buzzer-beaters of the season to win a tiebreaker with the Oklahoma City Thunder after Wednesday’s results and make the playoffs for the first time since 2011, back when they were still the Hornets. According to Yahoo’s own Adrian Wojnarowksi, finishing eighth saved the jobs of head coach Monty Williams and general manager Dell Demps:
Yet this was not merely a case of a team catching all the breaks. The Pelicans still had to seize their opportunity, and they did just that by beating the red-hot and motivated San Antonio Spurs in the season finale. They also withstood their own difficulties during the season, losing starting point guard Jrue Holiday (40 games played), sharpshooting reserve Ryan Anderson (61 games), shooting guard Eric Gordon (61 games) for long stretches. Tyreke Evans stepped into Holiday’s starting point guard role and thrived, but the rest of those absences required a team effort.
Well, that’s it for New — oh, right, there’s also Anthony Davis, soon to be named to the All-NBA First Team. Davis, who turned just 22 in March, made the leap from star to superstar this season, and it wouldn’t be terribly shocking to see him overtake LeBron James and Kevin Durant as the best player in the world some time in the next couple years. His 30.89 PER led the league, he led the league in blocks for the second year in a row while raising his scoring average considerably, and served as the squad’s do-everything hero on most nights. Part of the joy of this series will simply involve watching Davis in the playoffs for the first time, because most everyone figures he’s going to be a regular participant for a while.
Head to Head
The Warriors won three of four meetings, with the lone Pelicans win coming last Tuesday by a tight 103-100 margin. It’s tempting to dismiss that result because the Warriors had already clinched homecourt advantage throughout the postseason, but they were still going full tilt and played every key player at his customary minutes. It’s no slight against the Pelicans to say that the Warriors didn’t look quite as sharp once they accomplished all they needed to, because they smashed several other playoff participants under the same conditions.
Otherwise, the Warriors won the first three games by various degrees of viciousness — December 4 in Oakland was a blowout despite a terrific performance from Davis, the next meeting at the Smoothie King Center 10 days later was an overtime barnburner despite the absence of the Pels’ star, and the March 20 meeting at Oracle was another Warriors blowout even though Curry shot 4-of-17 from the field.
Likely Starting Lineups
The Warriors’ starting lineup of Curry, Thompson, Barnes, Green, and Bogut is the NBA’s best five-man unit to have played at least 300 minutes, out-scoring opponents by 19.6 points per 100 possessions. Curry is the linchpin of everything they do on offense, with his peerless shooting ability warping defenses and opening up opportunities for others, which he has improved at facilitating with his own passing, as well. He and Thompson form the best backcourt in the league and the most prolific pair of three-point shooters the NBA has ever seen. If that’s not enough, then Barnes and Green also provide an outside threat. Bogut is effective primarily as a screener, but that’s not slight — his basketball IQ helps the Warriors considerably even if his individual numbers don’t jump out.
The Golden State bench is stellar, too, with journeyman Marreese Speights becoming a genuine asset. (The Warriors starters with Speights in place of Bogut is the NBA’s fourth-best lineup with at least 200 minutes together.) Shaun Livingston is the effective backup point guard the team lacked last season, Andre Iguodala is still a stellar defender of multiple positions even with diminished athleticism, and many others fulfill their roles well.
The Warriors’ greatest strength is arguably the versatility of their defense. Players like Thompson, Barnes, Green, and Iguodala guard multiple positions with a fluidity we typically associate with offensive systems, Curry has improved from his sieve-like early seasons, and Bogut has figured out how to make his rim protection an essential part of the defensive scheme rather than just a more classic addition.
The Pelicans start Davis at power forward, rebounder extraordinaire Omer Asik at center, Eric Gordon and Quincy Pondexter on the wings, and Tyreke Evans at point guard. Evans is not anyone’s idea of a pure point, but he’s done very well in the position since replacing Holiday after he went down with a stress reaction in his right leg that kept him out of 41 games. Holiday is back and has played well in a few games off the bench, so there do not appear to be any issues with their respective roles.
Not surprisingly, everything New Orleans does revolves around Davis. On offense, that means a reliance on the pick-and-roll, where he excels as both a mid-range shooter and finisher at the rim. Evans and Gordon are both physical guards, and Ryan Anderson is a top-level shooter who can come in off the bench to offset some of the offense lost when Davis sits. The defense is not stellar on the perimeter, but Davis (and to a lesser extent Asik) is such a good shot blocker that he covers lots of sins. That said, the Pelicans were better in offensive efficiency (ninth) than in defensive efficiency (22nd), so it’s not as if they lock up opponents.
Key Matchups
• Anthony Davis vs. Draymond Green: Davis is the player best suited to neutralize Green’s strengths. When the Pelicans have the ball, the 6-10 Davis can exploit his three-inch height advantage while simultaneously making Green work with his mobility. At the other end, Davis is rangy enough to stick with Green when he is on the perimeter and recover to challenge others’ shots inside. If Davis dominates, he will nix a lot of what makes the Warriors a unique challenge.
• Stephen Curry vs. Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, and Jrue Holiday: Curry has improved as a defender, but he’s the weakest link in the Warriors’ league-best unit and can be scored upon. All three Pelicans listed here are strong guards and could be able to get physical with Curry. Yet the more interesting point may come at the other end, where Curry is likely to thrive. Holiday is easily the most talented defensive player of this trio, but he is coming off a major injury and sat out the second game of a back-to-back on Monday.
• The Glass: If the Warriors can be had in this series, it could come on the defensive glass, where they finished in the middle of the table in defensive rebounding rate at 18th in the NBA. For their part, the Pelicans placed fourth in offensive rebounding rate in large part due to the skills of Davis and Asik. A lot of the responsibility here is going to fall on Bogut, but it’ll take a team effort from a Golden State team that likes to score in transition.
How Golden State Could Win
Curry and Thompson shoot at their normal ungodly rates. Bogut keeps Davis and Asik off the offensive glass. Green and Co. contain Davis. Kerr adjusts to coaching against the same team many times in a row. The fans at Oracle Arena remain very loud. No player misses a game because of a delayed BART train.
How New Orleans Could Win
Davis plays like the best player in the world, not just one of the top five. Evans averages 20 ppg on quality shooting. Holiday gets to full strength. Cal product Anderson has an excellent homecoming. Asik dominates the boards at both ends. Someone on the Warriors gets hurt. Monty Williams finally finds a decent tailor.
Totally Subjective Entertainment Value Ranking: 7 out of 10. It would be a lot higher if the series figured to be more competitive. The Warriors are a joy to watch even (or especially) when they’re blowing teams out, and Davis’s first postseason series is notable no matter how many games he wins. The problem is that matchups like this one can get old after a game or two — at some point we’re just waiting for the superior team to get to the fourth win we all think is coming.
Prediction: Warriors in 5.
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Eric Freeman is a writer for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
