BDL’s 2014-15 NBA Playoff Previews: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
How They Got Here
• Cleveland: Kyrie Irving wanted as much money as possible, LeBron James wanted to come home, and LeBron wanted Kevin Love. (That last one has worked out a little bit differently than expected.) Decorated international coach David Blatt was hired to merge their talents in his Princeton-inspired offense, but the expected juggernaut stumbled early.
LeBron put up numbers, but didn’t seem right. Kyrie and Dion Waiters bristled at not having the ball. (Especially Dion, so he’s gone.) Love looked out of place in an offense that often asked him to stay outside and wait. Blatt struggled juggling rotations and playing time, and defensive centerpiece Anderson Varejao was lost for the season. After two LeBron-less weeks, Cleveland was 19-20, with rumors of strife running rampant.
Then LeBron came back looking MVP-fresh, everybody went bowling, and the Cavs started stringing together wins while integrating trade acquisitions Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert. Before long, Cleveland’s offense started incinerating opponents and its defense became passable. The Cavs have the NBA’s best record since mid-January and — all due respect to the Hawks — stand as the (betting) favorite to represent the East in the 2015 NBA Finals.
• Boston: They shuffled up and dealt, with Danny Ainge trusting that Brad Stevens could turn mismatched parts into a compelling whole. It’s near-miraculous that Stevens and his staff built a middle-of-the-pack D — 102.1 points allowed per 100 possessions, tied for 13th out of 30 teams — with Tyler Zeller, Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk and Brandon Bass to protect the rim.
Ainge used a trade exception from the Paul Pierce-Kevin Garnett blockbuster and a protected second-round pick to elbow into the three-way deal that helped Cleveland clear enough cap space to bring back LeBron. For facilitating, the Celtics snagged (among other things) Zeller, a 25-year-old 7-footer with touch and smarts. He signed Evan Turner on the cheap, betting that Stevens could revive the do-everything talent drafted one slot after John Wall. Turner’s had, on balance, his best season, thriving in a point-forward role.
He drafted Marcus Smart after re-upping Avery Bradley, because opposing guards’ lives can always be more miserable. He gave them the reins in December, trading four-time All-Star Rajon Rondo — the last man standing from the 2007-08 champs — to Dallas in return for (among other things) Jae Crowder, a hard-nosed wing who went from out of Rick Carlisle’s rotation to the heart of Stevens’.
Ainge sent Jeff Green to Memphis in a three-way deal that brought back (among other things) Austin Rivers and Tayshaun Prince. Then he sent Rivers to chill with his dad, netting (among other things) another future second-round pick. Then he sent Prince back to Detroit in a deal that imported (among other things) a legitimate jewel: Isaiah Thomas, just the sort of instant-offense pick-and-roll playmaker Boston lacked.
Thomas has filled the creative void in the Celtics’ offense, jacking 3s, getting to the free-throw line and dropping dimes at career-high rates. Boston’s 14-7 when Thomas plays, boasting an offensive rating nearly 10 points higher when he’s on the court than when he’s not since his arrival. An overstatement, but an instructive one: Thomas has been the difference between the Celtics scoring like the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors, or like the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets.
After all the wheeling and dealing, the Celtics stand at a crossroads. They’re better than they likely thought they’d be at this stage, without a signature star but with a war chest of assets — as many as five first-round picks in the next two drafts, young players on movable deals, as much as $30 million in cap space this summer, little on the books beyond next season — with which to pursue elite talent. In one sense, the big step they’ve taken in posting the East’s second-best record and fourth-best net rating since the All-Star break might have cost them; in a vacuum, a rebuilding squad would probably rather miss the playoffs and get a lottery pick than make it, get blitzed in Round 1 and receive a worse choice.
Rebuilds don’t happen in vacuums, though. If the Celtics turn in a better-than-expected showing, it could signal to prospective free agents that Boston’s on the rise, with a front office that knows how to win and a coach rapidly gaining respect as one of the NBA’s best tacticians.
“To have a chance to compete against the very best in the league, it’s a great opportunity,” Stevens said Tuesday, according to Adam Himmelsbach of the Boston Globe. “And hey, it’s a big mountain.”
We’re about to find out just how far along the Celtics are in their climb.
Head-to-Head
The two teams split their season series, 2-2. How much we can take from those meetings is unclear.
The first, a one-point Cavs win, saw LeBron pop for 41 to beat a team that prominently featured Rondo, Green and Marcus Thornton. The third and fourth came last weekend, after Cleveland had already clinched the No. 2 seed. Reserve Matthew Dellavedova played nearly as many minutes (73) in the two-game set as James, Irving, Love and Smith combined (75). Boston won both.
The most representative matchup came on March 3, after both teams had finished their in-season reconstructions. Cleveland smacked the Celtics, 110-79, with LeBron, Irving and Love combining for 57 points and the Cavs’ fortified D holding Boston to 35.2 percent shooting.
To be fair, Boston didn’t have Olynyk or Sullinger, and the Celtics have gone 16-7 since. Still, the result feels instructive. So does this:
Blatt probably doesn’t need much convincing to play his three best players together. Seeing that lineups featuring them outscored Boston by 29 points in 46 minutes this season won’t hurt, though.
Likely Starting Lineups
For Cleveland, it’s James, Love and Mozgov up front with Irving and Smith in the backcourt, a unit that has wrecked the league. The Cavs’ starters have outscored opponents by 19.3 points per 100 possessions, the third-best mark of any lineup that logged at least 200 minutes.
Mozgov gave Cleveland an interior presence to keep drivers out of the lane and contest shots, plus a strong screen-setter who can finish after diving to the rim. Smith gave Cleveland a (very) willing and (mostly) accurate catch-and-shoot threat who feasts off the attention drawn by the Cavs’ stars.
James and Irving give Cleveland two world-class initiators capable of breaking down virtually any opponent, collapsing a defense and creating something good — a layup or dunk, a foul drawn, a kickout to an open shooter — on any possession. Even in a down season — 16.4 points and 9.7 rebounds per game, his lowest numbers in five years — Love might be the highest-class third option in the NBA.
For Boston, it’s Zeller and Bass up front alongside Turner, Bradley and Smart, three players whose roles overlap and change depending on matchups. Turner typically initiates the offense, handling the ball more often and working in the pick-and-roll more frequently than either Bradley or Smart. In turn, their defensive talents, tenacity and wingspan (6-foot-7-1/4 for Bradley, 6-foot-9-1/4 for Smart) allow them to help check wing scorers with too much juice for Turner.
Stevens has favored this unit since losing Sullinger at the All-Star break to a left foot injury that was expected to end his season, but didn’t. The results have been, well, uneven.
The group has defended well, holding opponents to 101.4 points per 100 possessions — roughly a top-10 mark — with no shot-blocking, thanks in large part to a gift for avoiding whistles. The Celtics’ starters have committed just 14.2 fouls per 48 minutes and allowed opponents to take just over 16 free throws for every 100 field-goal attempts since the All-Star break; both would be the lowest marks in the NBA this season. They don’t feast on turnovers as much as you’d expect with ballhawks Bradley and Smart up top, but they work well to string out possessions, contest shots and clear the glass.
There’s just one problem: they can’t score. Boston’s starters are averaging a dismal 95.8 points per 100 possessions post-All-Star break, which would slot in above only the dead-last 76ers over the full season. There’s a reason Thomas’ on/off numbers look so good.
They play quick and share the rock, but Smart’s still learning the ropes and Bradley always looks more comfortable off the ball. That leaves Turner as this group’s best initiator, which can be problematic. The lineup features no go-to option and little reliable shooting. Zeller and Bass can hit from midrange, but neither really stretches the floor. Bradley shoots a just-below-league-average 35.2 percent beyond the arc; Smart (33.5 percent from 3 on 4.1 attempts a game) is streaky at best; and Turner, a subpar shooter for most of his career, doesn’t scare anyone.
So Stevens leans heavily on the Thomas-led bench for buckets. The Celtics’ O has run wild when the former Kings and Suns triggerman pairs with Olynyk and Jonas Jerebko, who shoot 3s well enough to draw opposing bigs out of the paint, and with Crowder, who plugs enough gaps (especially defensively) to keep small-ball units viable when the Celtics need a jolt.
If Boston’s starters struggle to score — which seems likely — look for Stevens to go small with Thomas at the controls, seeing if he can crank up the heat and the pace. That could test Blatt’s comfort with downshifting out of a two-big look, something he hasn’t done much this year, preferring to keep two of Mozgov, Love and Tristan Thompson on the court.
Matchups to Watch
• LeBron vs. everybody. Bass, Crowder and Turner all have experience defending James, though none have had great success; Smart got a crack earlier this season, too. Without no shot-blocking behind them, can the Celtics’ wings slow James enough to keep their scheme intact? And can their bigs hold up well enough against James on pick-and-roll-induced switches to allow everybody else to stay at home, preventing the sort of doubles that can lead to ball swings and open 3s?
• Kyrie vs. Boston’s bulldogs. Irving’s a wizard with the ball. Bradley and Smart put opposing point men in straightjackets. This figures to look like a prize fight in a phone booth. If the Celtics’ guards can pressure Kyrie into mistakes, create live-ball turnovers and generate a few easy buckets, it could help take Cleveland out of its rhythm and give Boston the boost it needs to hang against the more talented team.
• Impeding Isaiah. Thomas saw lots of Shumpert back in March, with the former Knick using his length and positioning to combat Thomas’ speed and quickness, helping hold him to 11 points on 4-for-13 shooting. If Cleveland’s perimeter defenders, with Shumpert likely leading the way, can successfully use their size to direct Thomas into contested looks and waiting help, and keep him from getting hot in a hurry, the Celtics’ offense should be dead in the water.
How Cleveland Could Win
Everyone stays healthy. The Celtics prove unable to stop LeBron and Kyrie. They put the clamps on Thomas.
How Boston Could Win
Irving’s lingering right hip tightness becomes something worth worrying about. Stevens goes full Carlisle-against-the-Spurs, springing a defensive adjustment that catches Blatt and LeBron by surprise. Every Celtic shoots better than expected, Turner remains somewhat shockingly clutch, Thomas goes supernova, and Stevens’ penchant for brilliant late-game plays swings at least one game.
Totally Subjective Entertainment Value Ranking: 6 out of 10. I don’t think it’ll last long, but there are enough compelling elements — LeBron in general, Kyrie vs. Bradley/Smart, the tricks up Stevens’ sleeve, Olynyk’s neverending battle with closing his mouth — for this series to be a bit more exciting than average.
Prediction: Cavs in 5.
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Dan Devine is an editor for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
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