BDL’s 2014-15 NBA Playoff Previews: Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks
How They Got Here
• Chicago: The Bulls entered the season with legitimate hopes of making the NBA Finals for the first time since Michael Jordan’s second retirement. Derrick Rose was returning from his second ACL tear in what seemed to be good health, Pau Gasol had signed as a free agent to add a second scoring option, lauded rookie Nikola Mirotic finally came over from Spain, and Jimmy Butler appeared ready to make a leap to stardom. Those expectations all played out to plan over the first few months. While Rose did not appear to have his pre-injury burst, he showed enough flashes to suggest that he could return to some approximation of his best days. Otherwise, Butler played like an All-Star (and became one), Gasol added another dimension to the offense (if at the expense of some of their defensive prowess), and the Cleveland Cavaliers struggled to open up opportunities for other teams. An 8-9 January suggested their were issues with the Bulls’ setup, but there was hope that they could round into form by the postseason.
Everything got significantly more complicated in late February, when Rose went down with yet another knee injury. It turned out to be a relatively minor issue that would allow him to return later in the season, but the Bulls still found themselves in trouble without their point guard, Butler out for 11 games in March, and Joakim Noah on a minutes restriction to nurse an ailing knee. Chicago never entered a truly horrible period during this season, but an 8-7 March did not exactly send the team into the stretch run in their best form. Everyone is in the lineup now, although it’s hard to say if anyone is at full strength.
It feels like the Bulls have had three seasons in 2014-15 — the early parts when they were figuring each other out, the midseason stretch in which many key players got hurt, and the present period where it’s not clear who can shoulder their ideal loads. The stats suggest a quality but limited team (11th in defensive efficiency, 10th in offensive efficiency), and perhaps it’s best to look past everyone’s reputation and view Tom Thibodeau’s outfit as a squad that will win one series before falling to the superior Cleveland Cavaliers.
• Milwaukee: The biggest surprise of this season’s playoff participants, the Bucks saw a massive turnaround in which they went from an NBA-worst 15-67 to 41-41 and the East’s No. 6 seed. The success started early as the Bucks quickly established themselves as a .500 squad under new head coach Jason Kidd before reaching a peak of 31-23 in the first game after the All-Star break. Milwaukee found its identity largely in the roster’s length, parlaying talents like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton into a hyperactive, swarming unit that regularly bothered offenses. The proof is in the stats — the Bucks finished second in defensive efficiency to only the Golden State Warriors.
However, this season also saw its fair share of frustrations and upheavals. No. 2-overall pick Jabari Parker impressed early but went down in mid-December with a torn ACL, robbing the team of one of its top offensive threats and a point of potential improvement. Center Larry Sanders then left the team in January and later accepted a buyout to focus on his mental health away from basketball, taking a talented player off the roster even if Sanders had become less important to the Bucks’ plans in recent months. The roster shakeup continued at the trade deadline when the Bucks dealt guard Brandon Knight, their most effective offensive player, for reigning Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams, rookie point guard Tyler Ennis, and MC Plumlord big man Miles Plumlee. MCW took over as the main figure in the offense with varying levels of success.
The upshot is that this is a very good defensive team that seriously struggles to score the ball. They finished 25th in offensive efficiency, right ahead of a bunch of teams that challenged for the league’s worst record. But they are a very good three-point shooting team (seventh at 36.3 percent) and could find success there this series.
Head to Head
These Midwest Division rivals played four times with the Bulls taking the first three and the Bucks grabbing their sole win 95-91 on April 1 at the Bradley Center. The difference in that game was arguably Chicago’s offensive struggles — they shot 5-of-26 from deep, missed 13 of 37 free throws, and turned it over 20 times. The three Bulls win were both similar and not — the Bucks had serious struggles scoring in the first on November 5, allowed a career-high 46 points to Gasol in the second on January 10, and shot 33.7 percent in the third for a season-low 71 points on February 23. No team scored 100 points or more in any of the four matchups, so expect a low-scoring series.
Likely Starting Lineups
The Bulls starters are familiar faces — Rose at the point, Butler and Mike Dunleavy on the wings, and Gasol and Noah in the frontcourt. Rose was not a superstar this season even at full strength, but he’s still the focus of the offense. Butler became a legitimate two-way star this season, averaging 20.0 points with a league-leading 38.7 minutes per game. Gasol saw a return to form after leaving Los Angeles but occupies many of the same offensive positions as Noah — they form a useful but uneasy partnership that can yield league-best interior passing or awkwardness. Gasol is also likely the biggest reason for the defensive-minded Bulls dip at that end this season — he’s just not that great at age 34 in a league with increasingly mobile power forwards.
The silver lining of Chicago’s second-half injuries was the emergence of rookie Nikola Mirotic, a very talented scorer who struggled early but carried the offense in March. He comes off the bench, usually as a stretch four but also as a bigger small forward. There is also still Taj Gibson, perpetual energy guy, and Aaron Brooks, who became the 2014-15’s Requisite Journeyman Undersized Point Guard Who Thrives Under Tom Thibodeau.
Milwaukee is not such a known quantity. Carter-Williams mans the point while Khris Middleton serves as the nominal shooting guard at 6-7. These positional designations mean little because of small forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, a 6-11 monster who does a little bit of everything. The Greek Freak can handle the ball, rebound, pass, defend pretty much anyone, and rove between all those roles. Power forward Ersan Ilyasova bounced back from a disastrous season to shoot very well from deep (38.9 percent) and team with veteran center Zaza Pachulia in the frontcourt.
They are spelled by 3-and-D wing Jared Dudley, similarly morose combo guards and scorers O.J. Mayo and Jerryd Bayless, and hyper-long second-year big men John Henson, who has the potential to become a terrific Tyson Chandler-styled big man.
Key Matchups
• Derrick Rose vs. Everything: All eyes will be on Rose, a former MVP who retains the glow of that accomplishment even if his injury history and current form suggest he’s far from that level. He faces many challenges this series — the Bucks’ excellent defense, the difficulty of finding his form in the postseason, media scrutiny, etc. He might not decide the series, but he will be the biggest figure in it.
• Pau Gasol vs. Milwaukee’s Length: Gasol is likely to be the decider of the series. He could struggle to defend Ilyasova on the perimeter, but he is just as likely to be the Bulls’ key offensive player and star. Gasol can neutralize the Bucks’ length while also opening up opportunities for others. The Bulls got him to give them another option against the conference’s best, but it starts here.
• Milwaukee’s Shooting vs. Chicago’s Defense: The Bucks have trouble scoring and will rely on threes to get points. The problem is that the Bulls defend the three very well — their 33.5 percent allowed ranks third in the league — and it’s not clear that Milwaukee can rely on that skill. If they do, they have a chance to win a few games, if not four of them.
How Chicago Could Win
Gasol carries a meaningful scoring load. No one breaks down from overwork. Mirotic carries over his late-season success. Rose does enough to suggest he can be 100 percent for the next series. They defend the three at their usual level.
How Chicago Could Win
Antetokounmpo reaches national stardom in his first playoff series. Middleton has several stellar shooting nights. The defense harasses the Bulls on a nightly basis. A few unlikely players get hot. Carter-Williams goes off for a triple-double or two. Jason Kidd covers the floor in liquid.
Totally Subjective Entertainment Value Ranking: 5 out of 10. Probably more interesting to think about than to experience. It will be nice to see Rose back in the playoffs for the first time since he tore his ACL in Game 1 of the 2012 first round, Antetokounmpo is one of the most watchable players in the NBA, and the Bucks defense can be really fun at its best. But this figures to be the lowest-scoring series of the first round notablly primarily for involving a veteran squad looking to work its way back into form. Meanwhile, the Bucks have already been a success and don’t seem primed for an upset. Expect some ugliness.
Prediction: Bulls in 5.
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Eric Freeman is a writer for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
