Stanley Cup Playoff Preview: St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild

(Ed. Note: There are five Canadian teams in the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs, trying their hardest to recapture Lord Stanley’s Cup and return it to the Great White North after it’s been in the grimy, unworthy hands of American teams since 1994. Here is Puck Daddy’s Playoff Preview for the first round, complete with a celebration of their Canadian elements.)

It seems like since Ken Hitchcock was brought on as coach of the Blues in 2011-12, St. Louis has been a solid choice to make the Stanley Cup Final. But they haven’t made it past the second round. 

What has been the Blues’ problem? Goaltending? Personnel? Coaching? A little of everything, probably, but it just hasn’t all come together. Same could be said for the Wild since their wet hot American summer in 2012 when they signed Team USA super buddies Ryan Suter and Zach Parise.

The Wild have made the playoffs twice since this sacred union, but never gone further than the second round, which happened a year ago. Much, if not all, rests on Devan Dubnyk, the Wild’s mid-season goaltending addition/savior to slow down the Blues’ absurd amount of depth.

Forwards

The Blues do not have any big Tim Horton’s fed Canadian centers. But do they really need any when they have Paul Stastny (American, raised in St. Louis though born in Quebec), David Backes (#merican) and Jori Lehtera (Finnish). Marcel Goc, the fourth line center, isn’t prolific but can provide some decent minutes. All finished with 44 points or more except for Goc. The Wild counter with Mikko Koivu (Finnish with 14 goals) and Mikael Granlund (also Finnish with just eight goals) down the middle, and not a lot else except perhaps Charlie Coyle. Plus, the Wild has no answer for Russian sniper Vladimir Tarasenko, the Blues’ resident game changer/ home run hitter with 37 goals. You can’t gameplan for him because’ he’s simply too creative. And of course, not to be forgotten are Alexander Steen (64 points in 74 games) and Jaden Schwartz (63 points). They all give the Blues even more wing scoring.

Minnesota winger Zach Parise (super American) scored 33 goals (El) Nino Niederreiter (Swiss) notched 24 and Thomas Vanek (Austrian) still has some pop in his stick and notched 21 goals. But really, the Blues are deep, healthy and so, so powerful up front. The Wild has some nice pieces, but not even a few more Canadians could help them at forward.

ADVANTAGE: Blues

Defensemen

The Wild has American hero Ryan Suter – who is as flag waving as they come – but coach Mike Yeo has a tendency to play his top players way too much in order to get into the playoffs … and then tries to figure out the rest on the fly after his team makes the postseason. Suter’s time on ice was a whopping 29:03 on average – and this came in a year where he was slammed by the mumps. No wonder his two goals were his lowest since he was a rookie. He must be exhausted. The Wild actually have solid depth at this position with Jared Spurgeon (Canadian), Marco Scandella (Canadian), Jonas Brodin (Swedish) and all average over 20 minutes per-night and are capable.

But when you’re going against that Blues offense it should take a toll. Plus, the Blues have two of the more underrated elite blueliners in the game with Kevin Shattenkirk (American) and Alex Pietrangelo (Canadian). Shattenkirk was an All-Star last year and notched 44 points in 56 games, in spite of injury. Pietrangelo had 46 points and averaged 25:24 per-game. Shattenkirk’s possession numbers are in the positive territory per Behind the Net. Pietrangelo’s aren’t, though his quality of competition is higher. Regardless, they’re a good tandem, along with Jay Bouwmeester, who plays 22:39 per-game.

ADVANTAGE: Blues

Marco Scandella head-shot of T.J. Oshie

Ryan Reaves slams Jared Cowen and then fights Eric Gryba in one shift

Goaltending

Jake Allen, who has been scorching hot down the stretch, starts the series for the Blues. Allen started every game in April except the season finale – including contests against the Flames and Jets, both teams that still were trying to make the playoffs – and posted a .964 save percentage. 

He’ll face Devan Dubnyk, who was absurdly good for Minnesota with a 1.78 goals against average and .936 save percentage in 39 games. Only issue is that he started those 39 all in a row. Which makes you wonder if fatigue will be an issue in the playoffs. Also, both are Canadian, which evens out whatever tiebreaker there could have been.

ADVANTAGE: Wild

Blues: 13, though it’s amazing Backes hasn’t taken a few out with his fists at some point – even if they’re on the same team.

Wild: 10, and these guys are way too internationally oriented to compete with the Blues’ Old Time Hockey-like ways. Even their Americans play like Canadians (Backes, David)

Coaches

Ken Hitchcock has won a Stanley Cup, been to multiple Cup Finals. Though his playoff success with the Blues is lacking, he seems to have a firm grasp on this particular group. I have no faith that Mike Yeo has this team ready for this fight. Suter has played an absurd amount of minutes and Dubnyk had almost no break time from his trade to the Wild until the end of the season. Stylistically speaking, the Blues rank 11th in CF % 5-on-5 puck according to Puckalytics, while the Wild ranks 16th at 51.0 percent. From a normal stats perspective, they’re neck and neck defensively at 2.40 goals against per-game for St. Louis and 2.42 for the Wild. Both these coaches like defense … because they’re both Canadian and obviously love  old time hockey.

ADVANTAGE: Blues 

Special Teams

The Blues rank fourth in the NHL on the power play at 22.3 percent. The Wild ranks a dismal 27th at 15.8 percent. Minnesota’s PK is phenomenal at 86.3 percent – tops in the NHL. St. Louis ranks eighth at 83.7 percent.

ADVANTAGE: Even

Devan Dubnyk of Regina, Saskatchewan, because it’s pronounced DOOObnick.

Steve Ott of St. Louis, you know – like an otter, because they have those in Canada!

Players To Watch

From Minnesota, it’ll be up to Dubnyk to stop the Blues’ attack and Suter to provide some layer of protection for Dubnyk against the Blues and their powerful forwards. For the Blues, it’s clearly Tarasenko – the human highlight reel.

Prediction

Blues in five. This is a match up nightmare for Minnesota, or really anyone who is going to face St. Louis in the playoffs … unless they choke or play Jonathan Quick, the latter of which is humanly impossible this postseason.