NBA Playoff Picture Update: The West is a mess of very good teams
With just over one week remaining until the NBA postseason, every night can impact the standings. The NBA Playoff Picture Update keeps you up to date on all the most important news for all 16 berths and seeds.
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Picture Them Rollin’ The San Antonio Spurs continue to be the hottest team in the NBA. The defending champs used a 28-18 third quarter advantage to best the Houston Rockets 110-98 for their ninth-straight win and 19th in their last 22 outings. Tony Parker led the way with 27 points as the Spurs shot 50.5 percent from the field and held James Harden to 22 points on 6-of-15 shooting and only eight free-throw attempts. On the other hand, Harden did win his beard comparison with Gregg Popovich:
After looking in crisis in the week following the All-Star break, San Antonio now has a reasonable shot at the No. 2 seed in the West. (We’ll cover that extremely complicated race in more detail in a bit.) No matter their seed, though, the Spurs are the one team that no one wants to face in the first round. They are playing the best basketball in the NBA, with Kawhi Leonard in his do-everything, Finals-MVP form and Tony Parker in good health and out of the career-worst stretch that coincided with the team’s late-February swoon. Like the Houston Rockets in 1995, the Spurs could be in line to repeat as champs even if they cannot rise above the No. 6 seed. They’re that scary right now.
Meanwhile, the Rockets lost control of the No. 2 seed, bad news even if Wednesday’s result is not especially embarrassing. They’re still tied with the Grizzlies with 53-25 records, but they would currently miss out on the Midwest Division lead due to an inferior in-division record. At the same time, that’s only the case because they’ve played fewer games in the division, so all this can change very soon.
Bear Eats Bird: A day after beating the Golden State Warriors and taking control of the race for the West’s No. 8 seed, the New Orleans Pelicans faced another conference contender when they visited the Memphis Grizzlies at FedEx Forum. This one didn’t go so well for them. The Grizzlies thrashed the Pelicans 110-74, their worst loss of the season. It also drops their record to 42-36, keeping New Orleans ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder only via their season-series tiebreaker. Memphis held them to just 35 percent from the field, with Anthony Davis managing only nine shots in his 28 minutes.
Wednesday’s loss points to the difficulties for the Pelicans even as they control their own destiny in this race. With three of four remaining games Phoenix Suns, Rockets, and Spurs, the Pelicans can beat a respectable or even contending team but have to turn back around and face another their next time out. By contrast, OKC faces the Sacramento Kings, Indiana Pacers, Portland Trail Blazers, and Minnesota Timberwolves (also the Pelican’s other opponent). The conference’s final playoff team may end up depending on which of their foes still have something left to play for.
The Grizzlies are certainly a team with plenty left at stake. They now hold the advantage over Houston for the No. 2 seed but have no real way of improving their position with no games left against division opponents and a 4-4 record against the Spurs and Rockets. The good news for Memphis is that they are likely to maintain their current advantage in the third-tiebreaker (in-conference record) with a three-game lead over the Rockets.
Nobody Knows: The Portland Trail Blazers beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 116-91 at Moda Center, which is not surprising but allows us to detail the thoroughly confusing breakdown of the second through sixth spots in the West standings. This tweet sums up the confusion:
Let’s start with the Blazers, who likely to stay in the No. 4 seed by virtue of their Northwest Division title. If the Blazers play a No. 5 seed with a better record, though, then they will not have homecourt advantage despite their higher seed. At the same time, if the Blazers manage to tie a No. 3 seed that has not won its division, then they will win that tiebreaker no matter their record in the season-series. Divisions are a bit antiquated in the modern NBA, but they still matter.
That is somehow the easiest part of understanding this race. The real mess concerns the three teams vying for the Midwest Division and the No. 2 seed. If Memphis and Houston tie, then the winner will be decided by in-division record, where the Grizzlies currently lead 9-7 to 7-7. The Rockets have remaining games against the Spurs and Pelicans, but a tie there doesn’t really help them because the Grizzlies hold a three-game advantage in the next tiebreaker, conference record, and can clinch that over both rivals with just one win in their remaining three games against West teams.
The Spurs are the real complicating factor here, because they now trail the Grizzlies and Rockets by just a half-game. The tiebreaker rules are the same in a tie between three or more teams as they are with just two — season series against those rivals matters first, then in-division record, then in-conference record, and then a bunch of other stuff we don’t have to think about right now. Memphis has already split its eight games against San Antonio and Houston (2-2 apiece), so they’re done. The Spurs hold the tiebreaker right now with a 2-2 record against the Grizzlies and a 2-1 record against the Rockets, but they play the Rockets again Friday in Houston and must win in order to maintain that advantage. If they don’t, then they can’t win the tiebreaker, because they already can’t catch the Grizzlies in the conference record and would drop it to the Rockets with that loss. So Friday’s game is ultimately the most important on the schedule in determining the West’s seeding — if the Spurs win, then the Rockets are in very rough shape; if the Rockets win, then the Spurs are out of it; either way, the Grizzlies just have to focus on winning their own games and keeping pace.
Yet none of these scenarios factor in the Los Angeles Clippers, who are runners-up in the Pacific Division but can still finish with the No. 2 seed. At 53-26, they’re tied with the Spurs on record but one loss and a half-game behind the Grizzlies and Spurs. They also happen to host Memphis at Staples Center on Saturday.
Regardless of specifics, it’s feasible that a team can start the last day of the regular season in sixth place next Wednesday and finish it with the No. 2 seed. This is a giant mess — we frankly can’t wait until events resolve it, because it hurts our brains. You can read the full tiebreaker rules here, if you want to join us in this land of confusion.
Net negative: With famously and delightfully absent owner Mikhail Prokhorov in the house, the Brooklyn Nets had a chance to earn their eighth win in nine tries by knocking off the East-leading Atlanta Hawks. They just needed one last stop to ice it.
Welp.
Noted after-timeout tactician Mike Budenholzer drew up a winner, sending sharpshooting wing Kyle Korver screaming around a pair of screens from the right corner to the left elbow. Korver beat defender Deron Williams off the spot at the start of the play, leaving the Nets guard in trail position as Korver got to the top of his sprint-out; not wanting to leave the league’s leading 3-point marksman alone beyond the arc, Brooklyn center Brook Lopez rushed out to meet him and help Williams.
That, however, left Lopez’s man, Hawks center Al Horford, all alone after slipping his screen for Korver. Point guard Jeff Teague hit Korver, who instantly redirected to Horford standing under the basket for a dunk that gave him a Hawks-high 24 points (plus seven rebounds, four assists, two steals and a block) and gave Atlanta a one point-lead with 19.1 seconds left.
The Nets did get a crack at responding, but came up empty on two different go-ahead shots — a corner 3 from Jarrett Jack, followed by a straight-on triple by Bojan Bogdanovic after an offensive rebound by Lopez — before Teague came away with the rebound, got fouled and hit his free throws, finalizing the margin of victory in a 114-111 win without not only injured All-Star forward Paul Millsap, but also rotation members Thabo Sefolosha and Pero Antic, who were not available after their arrests early Wednesday morning after allegedly refusing “to move when police tried to set up a crime scene” following the stabbing of Indiana Pacers forward Chris Copeland outside a New York City nightclub.
It’s a tough loss for the Nets, who came back from a 14-point third-quarter deficit thanks to a 16-3 mid-fourth run sparked by former Hawk Joe Johnson, and led 111-110 after a Williams bank shot with 33 seconds left. They were unable to corral a long rebound after a missed DeMarre Carroll 3-pointer on the ensuing possession, though, allowing a Hawks second chance that led to Thaddeus Young picking up his sixth foul and Budenholzer getting the opportunity to set up the winner. Brooklyn now falls to 36-42, which knocked them down a peg in the Eastern playoff standings because …
No Mo-tor City: … the Boston Celtics took care of business against the Detroit Pistons, earning a 113-103 win that — combined with Brooklyn’s loss — has the 36-42 C’s sitting in the No. 7 spot in the East.
With Greg Monroe returning to the lineup after missing 11 games with a knee sprain to pair with center Andre Drummond, the Pistons raced out to an early 14-8 lead through five and a half minutes. Then Brad Stevens went to the bench and called on Isaiah Thomas. Things got ugly for Detroit from there, as Boston closed the quarter on a 22-2 run, with the diminutive scorer running roughshod over the Pistons porous D and Detroit unable to generate anything resembling a solid look. This led Stan Van Gundy to use some very colorful language in haranguing his charges as ESPN cut to commercial.
The Pistons made a game of it in the second quarter behind some scorching shot-making, and came within a tough bounce on an Anthony Tolliver 3 of regaining the lead midway through the third quarter. After that, though, they just couldn’t control Thomas, whose ability to break down Detroit’s perimeter defenders off the dribble allowed him to get to the cup and free-throw line essentially at will, leaving Van Gundy without answers and Detroit down 17 heading into the fourth, which wound being just too big a deficit to overcome.
Thomas finished with a season-high 34 points, six assists and three rebounds in 30 minutes off the Boston bench, leading the Celtics to their fourth win in five games and a move up to No. 7. The Celtics’ predicament got even better later Wednesday:
Though not finalized, LeBron James hinted he’ll sit the next 2 games. Both are against Celtics so it could affect playoff race/seedings
— Brian Windhorst (@WindhorstESPN) April 9, 2015
For Detroit, on the other hand, the journey’s at an end. The loss eliminates the 30-48 Pistons from postseason contention. Oh, well. We’ll always have The Post-Josh-Smith-Buyout Bump.
We’re No. 2!: Finally some certainty. The Cleveland Cavaliers have clinched the Central Division and the East’s No. 2 seed with Wednesday’s 104-99 win over the Milwaukee Bucks. This LeBron James dunk didn’t end the game, but it serves as an effective punctuation mark anyway:
The Cavs will need to wait to see who they play in the first round, but LeBron’s apparent decision to sit out two games against the Celtics suggests that they’ll face his old rivals, just with Evan Turner in green instead of Paul Pierce. They’re similar, right?
Bugs sprayed: This Bismack Biyombo dunk gave the Charlotte Hornets a 4-2 lead over the Toronto Raptors with 10:09 remaining in the first quarter:
It was all downhill from there. Charlotte never led again.
Toronto took control of a Hornets club that looked utterly bereft without injured starters Al Jefferson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Cody Zeller, ripping off a 17-6 second-quarter run that put the Raptors up 16 at half.
“We just had no juice,” Hornets coach Steve Clifford said after the game, according to The Associated Press.
No offense, either, as Charlotte shot just 34.6 percent from the floor against the league’s sixth-worst defense in a 92-74 defeat.
DeMar DeRozan (18 points, seven assists, three blocks) led five players in double-figures for the Raptors, who improved to 46-32. Gerald Henderson, Kemba Walker and Mo Williams combined to miss 26 of their 39 shots in the loss, which drops the Hornets to 33-45, three games behind the Celtics and Nets with four games left. The dream of a second-straight postseason berth isn’t officially dead yet, but it’s about as close as close can be.
In other important news, Raptors swingman James Johnson has dyed his hair red:
Hi, James Johnson! We like your hair. Please don’t beat us up: http://t.co/ljLXCOR85A pic.twitter.com/YpBKueyHjV
— SB Nation NBA (@SBNationNBA) April 8, 2015
And that has engendered a new celebration that could elicit spark a lawsuit from a certain office supplies provider:
Why was JJ tapping his newly dyed red hair after each of his buckets? He called it the “Easy Button”, said Fields & Stiemsma came up with it
— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) April 9, 2015
Here’s hoping Dwane Casey gives the trick-or-treat dude with the full-throat tattoo some chances to hit the button this postseason.
Presto change-o: The Orlando Magic came back from 15 points down to stun the Chicago Bulls, 105-103, on a game-winning layup by Victor Oladipo with 1.5 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter.
Oladipo scored nine of his game-high 23 points in the fourth, teaming with rookie Elfrid Payton (17 points, nine rebounds, nine assists) and big man Nikola Vucevic (22 points, seven rebounds, three assists) to spoil Derrick Rose’s return from knee surgery and hand Chicago its second straight defeat. Both Chicago and Toronto now have 46-32 records, but the Raptors get the No. 3 seed by virtue of being a division leader, bumping the Bulls down to fourth place in the East.
Half-smokes > cheesesteaks: John Wall sat out to rest for the first time in more than two years, and it didn’t matter in the slightest.
The Washington Wizards opened the game on an 11-3 run, were up 10 on the Philadelphia 76ers in less than four minutes, and absolutely decimated Philly’s 11th-ranked defense with ball and player movement. Reserves Ramon Sessions and Will Bynum combined for 29 points and 14 assists in Wall’s place, Bradley Beal (21 points, 7-for-9 shooting, 3-for-3 from 3-point land) got hot and stayed that way, and the Wizards shot a franchise-record 65.3 percent from the field, crushing the 76ers, 119-90. Washington has won four in a row and sits at 45-33 — the Wizards’ highest win total in a decade — just one game behind the Raptors and Bulls in the middle of the Eastern pack.
Quickly: The seventh-place Dallas Mavericks beat the Phoenix Suns 107-104, thereby officially eliminating them from the playoff race. It’s not a surprising outcome, especially after the Suns traded Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas at the deadline, but it still makes two years in a row in which Phoenix has contended up until the season’s final days only to fall into the lottery. The good news is that they planned on a long rebuilding process and have massively out-performed those early expectations.
The Indiana Pacers topped the New York Knicks 102-86, bringing to mind absolutely zero memories of Reggie Miller and John Starks in the process. Playing in his second game of the season, Paul George scored 10 points on 2-of-7 shooting in 16 minutes. That result puts the Pacers a game back of the Celtics and Nets for the seventh and eighth spots.
Thursday’s Most Important Games
Bulls at Heat, 8 p.m. ET: The glass-half-full take? Derrick Rose felt “no discomfort” after his Wednesday return, and plans to play on the second night of a back-to-back in Miami. The glass-half-empty view? A Chicago club fighting for home-court advantage in Round 1 just got outworked by an Orlando Magic team with nothing to play for, and now faces a Miami squad that desperately needs a win to draw within a half-game of the Celtics and Nets. Can the Bulls summon enough will to outclass a wounded, short-handed opponent, or will Dwyane Wade and company cut Chicago’s lead over the fifth-seeded Wizards in half?
Blazers at Warriors, 10:30 p.m. ET: Golden State has already clinched homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs but appears to be playing a full roster in these final days, so we should be in for a fast-paced, high-scoring game at the very least. As mentioned roughly 4000 words ago, the Blazers look very likely to finish with the No. 4 seed but can improve their chances at regaining homecourt advantage (and maybe improving their seed) with a win. Perhaps Oakland native Damian Lillard will rise to the occasion in his hometown.
