NCAA predictions: Wisconsin vs. Duke in NCAA championship game – CBSSports.com
The CBSSports.com college basketball staff makes their picks on Monday’s NCAA championship game between Wisconsin at Duke at 9:18 p.m. ET (CBS) from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Gary Parrish, CBSSports.com College Basketball Insider
The idea of Wisconsin-Duke opening as a pick’em in sportsbooks around the world underlines how much of a coinflip this game is on paper. Yes, Duke won the first meeting — in Madison, no less. But that competition was literally four months ago, and these teams have changed so much since then that it’s almost pointless to reference it too much. Truth be told, I have no strong conviction about this, one way or another. Both teams are No. 1 seeds and great. There’s no clear favorite. But, gun to head, I’ll take Wisconsin, I guess, if only because I just watched the Badgers eliminate the team I previously thought would cut nets Monday night. Prediction: Wisconsin 68, Duke 67
Matt Norlander, CBSSports.com College Basketball Writer
Wow. This one is much harder to project that I initially thought. It’s a really great national championship game. Two great offensive teams, led by big men, and with two stud wings capable of changing the game. Jahlil Okafor vs. Frank Kaminsky is the headliner, but this game is going to be decided by much more than how Frank and Jah play. In fact, I could see them canceling each other out to a degree. Sam Dekker vs. Justise Winslow is the matchup to keep an eye on. Dekker has been outrageous, and so here we have Winslow with the biggest assignment of his career. Dekker didn’t play well in the first matchup because he had an ankle injury. Now he’s at his peak. Duke has the better point guard in Tyus Jones. Will that matter? Ultimately, I’m going Wisconsin here because that offense is worthy of a title, and it’s not often we see the national player of the year win it all. That award was Okafor’s to lose until early February, and then Kaminsky came in and took it over. Duke-UK would’ve been incredible. Duke-Wisconsin is simply amazing. Prediction: Wisconsin 74, Duke 70
Sam Vecenie, CBSSports.com College Basketball Writer
This is a coinflip, pure and simple. Can Wisconsin get the mismatches it wants offensively against Duke and Mike Krzyzewski, a master of forcing teams out of their element? Can Duke keep pace with a Badgers offense that is firing at a 1.28 points-per-possession clip in its five postseason games? It’s a really tough one to judge. What makes the difference is the defensive improvement one team made compared to the other. Duke has only allowed .873 points-per-possession in the NCAA Tournament, an incredible improvement from this season’s early struggles. However, Wisconsin seems to be getting worse on that end right now, giving up 1.15 points-per-possession on defense. Now, I don’t think Duke necessarily can slow down Wisconsin, but I know the Badgers won’t be able to slow down Duke’s attack. Maybe the Badgers end up flat out outscoring the Blue Devils, but I trust Coach K’s team more to get the big stops. Prediction: Duke 78, Wisconsin 73
Chip Patterson, CBSSports.com College Basketball Writer
While Kentucky-Duke was the game set for the “Game of the Century” tag we toss around so often on the football side of things, getting Wisconsin-Duke, especially given the Badgers’ performance Saturday night, is no letdown. No, both of these teams have been playing some of their best basketball right now and the outcome is as unpredictable as the line suggests. Duke’s defensive improvement throughout the tournament, which peaked against Michigan State with pressure on the perimeter and swarming help inside, gives me confidence that Mike Krzyzewski has the pieces despite carrying only eight scholarship players. You may think Wisconsin is the “team of destiny,” but Duke is looking for its third championship in Indianapolis (1991, 2010) and eerily has repeated its path from the 2010 title run, starting as the No. 1 seed in the Houston-based South Regional. Prediction: Duke 74, Wisconsin 70
Doug Gottlieb, CBS Sports Analyst
In order to find the few cracks inside Wisconsin’s defense you must do a couple of things well. Jump shooting is key since the Badgers give you space and play “pack-line” defense. Wisconsin is not a very good ball-screen defensive team in traditional screen-roll action and if you have a legit post scorer, you can get good looks as Wisconsin plays behind in the post. Duke has all of this in their arsenal. On the other hand Duke switches everything on defense. This has led to their defensive numbers spiking over the last month or so. If you watched the Kentucky game, you saw no one finds a bad switch in college basketball like Wisconsin. The Badgers simply exploit every mismatch they can find and are incredible shot makers. Duke should be rested and Wisconsin should be tired. Coach K starts 3 freshman, Bo doesn’t really play any. The matchups favor Duke, but I’m taking Wisconsin because it can exploit the undersized Blue Devils with their starting lineup and stretch out Duke’s back-up big men. I would expect Duke to play a fair amount of zone, which can be affective against Wisconsin. But note many Big Ten teams tried to zone them, and the excellent-passing Badgers still found good shots. Prediction: Wisconsin 72, Duke 68
Ryan, left, and Krzyzewski after the Blue Devils’ 80-70 victory in December. (USATSI)
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