Final Four Expert Picks: Who will play in NCAA championship game? – CBSSports.com
The CBSSports.com college basketball experts are ready for the Final Four and tell you who they are picking — and why — in Saturday’s semifinal games.
Gary Parrish, College Basketball Insider: Michigan State has been playing really well, Travis Trice is operating like a guard capable of carrying his team to two more wins, and it’s not like a No. 7 seed hasn’t won the national championship before (and by before, I mean last year). But, as my friend and television colleague Pete Gillen once said, “Duke is Duke” and, simply put, I just think the Blue Devils are too good for the Spartans. Duke probably won’t win by as much as they won by back in November. But Duke will still win. Prediction: Duke 71, Michigan State 65
Matt Norlander, College Basketball Writer: The Blue Devils have so much talent, if MSU won here, it would rank among the three most impressive wins of Tom Izzo’s career. Keep an eye on Jahlil Okafor on the block. Will Izzo double him? Not necessarily. And Okafor is due for a big game. Justise Winslow has played himself into a top-five pick the past month and could be assigned to Denzel Valentine, the Spartans’ most diverse player. Tyus Jones is the best point guard left in this field. That alone is enough to get me to pick Duke to win with some comfort. If Travis Trice struggles, it’s going to be a long night for MSU. Prediction: Duke 78, Michigan State 68
Sam Vecenie, College Basketball Writer: While the Spartans are certainly a different team than they were in the first game they played, there’s still a pretty big talent disparity between these two teams. Justise Winslow has been superb since being inserted into the small-ball 4 position, and Quinn Cook has been a catalyst to a defensive renaissance that has seen the Blue Devils not give up more than .89 points per possession in the NCAA Tournament. Plus, Michigan State has nobody that can guard Jahlil Okafor, and they tend not to double in the post. All of those reasons lead me to believe we’re headed for a game that Duke controls from start to finish, earning a berth in the championship game Monday night. Prediction: Duke 74, Michigan State 64
Chip Patterson, College Basketball Writer: Duke has improved dramatically on defense throughout this tournament, but they are not to the point where I feel comfortable predicting a lockdown performance against this surging Michigan State team. Travis Trice will not be shaken by the Blue Devils’ aggressive perimeter defense and the Spartans can make you pay in transition with their blitz-and-break approach. Jahlil Okafor (15 points combined in the past two games) will be a bigger factor — though Justise Winslow looks like the team’s MVP right now — and I think the Blue Devils hold an uncomfortable three-to-five-point lead for the final five minutes of the game. Prediction: Duke 75, Michigan State 72
Gary Parrish, College Basketball Insider: This is the main event, clearly, and it’s a game that features arguably the nation’s two best teams. Wisconsin takes care of the ball, makes its free throws and has at least two pros, both of whom — Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker — can score in a variety of ways. So the Badgers will be UK’s toughest test to date, on paper. But I’ve been saying for at least a month that I believe Kentucky will finish the season undefeated, and there’s no reason to turn back now. Prediction: Kentucky 68, Wisconsin 62
Matt Norlander, College Basketball Writer: I’ve been so intrigued by this game. The matchups are fascinating. On both sides. We’ve never seen a more diametrically interesting national semifinal. Wisconsin is scoring more points per possession than any team in the past 13 years. Kentucky’s D rates as among the best ever. So watch Kentucky’s offense — which is near the top in college hoops — go out and be the difference on Sconnie’s D. A great game. Trey Lyles comes up huge. UK gets to Monday night with history on its shoulders. Prediction: Kentucky 76, Wisconsin 74.
Sam Vecenie, College Basketball Writer: Wow, this one is going to be fun. The Badgers are one of the best offensive basketball teams in modern college basketball history, and the Wildcats are among the best defensive ones. Bo Ryan’s goal will be to slow the game down in a similar way to what Notre Dame did against Kentucky last week, trying to limit possessions and simply out-gun Kentucky. It’s not the worst idea because by doing that, Wisconsin will increase the variance in the game, and really give itself a chance to win if the Badgers can knock down shots. Still, that last part of the equation — making shots — is typically the most difficult part against Kentucky, which holds teams to a field-goal percentage that is 10 points below the national average. My guess is it’s back and forth for a while, but ultimately Kentucky continues its run toward perfection. Prediction: Kentucky 69, Wisconsin 67
Chip Patterson, College Basketball Writer: I think we will see a lot of patient basketball from both teams, as Wisconsin will run its efficient offensive sets to try and create space and mismatches against a Kentucky team that has enough length and size to switch on everything. The Badgers don’t turn the ball over, which is usually how UK creates its easy buckets, so Kentucky probably will work inside-out when it has the ball. The matchup of Wisconsin’s bigs against Karl-Anthony Towns and Trey Lyles in the post ultimately determines this one, with Towns playing the role of the closer for the second game in a row. Prediction: Kentucky 66, Wisconsin 60
>> Want more college basketball picks? Against the spread predictions | Expert brackets
The Kentucky Wildcats gather after Friday’s practice in Indianapolis. (USATSI)
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