Strike Zone: Team-By-Team Notes
Friday, April 03, 2015
After a hugely disappointing 2014 season that saw him walk 48 batters in 79 innings between Double- and Triple-A, top prospect Archie Bradley entered the spring somewhere around 10th or 11th on the Diamondbacks’ starting pitching depth chart. On Wednesday, he was so impressive against the Reds that the team decided he simply must be added to a five-man rotation that had just been named two days prior. One day later, Trevor Cahill was traded to Atlanta.
We shouldn’t feel bad for Cahill. He goes from one of NL’s worst teams to another, but he’s in a better ballpark with what will probably be a better defensive infield with the Braves. Cahill had his own disastrous 2014, getting bounced from Arizona’s rotation just a couple of weeks into the season, and actually getting sent to the minors for a spell. He ended up with a 5.61 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP, but he also finished with the best strikeout rate of his career and also a better-than-usual home run rate. He’s certainly more intriguing in NL-only leagues now, even if run support is likely to be a major issue. As a $1 pitcher, he’d be just fine.
As for Bradley, the upside is so tantalizing that it’s tempting to give him a bench spot in mixed leagues. Still, the more I look at it, I just can’t justify it. He walked only six in 22 1/3 innings this spring, but history suggests he’s not ready to sustain that kind of rate. Plus, he pitches for a really bad team. The Diamondbacks have decided to go with Nick Ahmed at shortstop and Chris Owings at second, giving the middle infield a boost. However, they still haven’t made the call at third between Yasmany Tomas and Jake Lamb. They are giving up a considerable amount of defense in left by playing David Peralta over Ender Inciarte against righties. Even worse, Cody Ross will start versus lefties. They’ll be awful in right field, too, with Mark Trumbo playing regularly. The defense is a big reason I didn’t have a single Diamondbacks pitcher among my top 120 starters until Thursday. Bradley now shows up at No. 114, and maybe I could go a little higher now that the team has settled on Ahmed (I’m not convinced that was the right call — he figures to be one of the league’s very worst hitters — but it will be good for the pitchers). Still, I don’t see Bradley pitching deep into games or racking up huge strikeout numbers. I like him and I look forward to seeing how this plays out, but there really isn’t any shortage of more interesting starter pickups in mixed leagues.
American League Notes
Baltimore – The Orioles apparently won’t announce a decision on Kevin Gausman’s rotation status until after Opening Day. I don’t understand the hold up. They have to know Gausman is one of their five best starters. Either they want him starting now or they think that putting him in the bullpen for the first month or so might keep him stronger in September and October. Going with the latter plan would be disappointing to fantasy owners, but it’s not such a bad idea for the Orioles. Gausman would still be worth a roster spot in mixed leagues. … Ubaldo Jimenez, who really did look much better as the spring went along, would be the fifth starter if Gausman is sent to the pen. It might make him worth the most minimal of fliers in AL-only leagues. … Manny Machado’s poor spring has likely cost him the second spot in the Baltimore lineup that he’s occupied for most of his career. Steve Pearce will probably get most of the starts there initially. Machado could always move back up, but I dropped his projection a bit. As tightly bunched as my top 10 third basemen are, it was enough to drop him from fifth to ninth in my rankings. … J.J. Hardy (shoulder) is set to join Matt Wieters (elbow) on the DL to start the year, but it looks like he’s just 7-10 days behind. Everth Cabrera should start over Ryan Flaherty at shortstop.
Boston – The loss of Christian Vazquez (elbow) for the season was a blow for the rather uninspiring Red Sox pitching staff, but the team will still have a quality framer and game-caller behind the plate for however long Ryan Hanigan lasts. It’s just up to whether the 34-year-old Hanigan is capable of starting even 90-100 games. His career high was 98 starts in 2012. He started 66 games each of the last two seasons. For that reason, it seems nearly certain that Blake Swihart will get to take over in June or July, if not earlier. I don’t think Swihart is ready to excel offensively, but he should be a No. 2 catcher in mixed leagues when his time comes. Right now, I have him 31st and Hanigan 38th in the catcher rankings. … Rusney Castillo was probably Triple-A bound from the moment he suffered a strained oblique early in camp, but he was really impressive after returning, hitting .310 with two homers in 29 at-bats and showing plenty of range in right field. Shane Victorino, meanwhile, hasn’t looked very good in right while recovering from his own physical problems. It’s hard to blame the Red Sox for sticking with Victorino — he’s due $13 million and he was one of the game’s best outfielders in 2013 — but I still think they’d prefer to trade him if a taker emerges. … That no Allen Craig trade has gotten done is a bigger letdown. Craig hasn’t resembled like the player he was in 2013, but he has looked a whole lot better than the Craig of last season. He should be a starting first baseman somewhere. On the Red Sox, his lack of range in right field cuts off his best path to playing time. If the Red Sox do trade Craig, I think they’d recall Castillo to serve as a fourth outfielder, with the idea that he’d eventually supplant Victorino. Castillo is a good use of a bench spot in mixed leagues. … Edward Mujica is expected to spend the first week or two closing while Koji Uehara continues go get over a hamstring strain.
Chicago – With Chris Sale set to debut on April 12, the White Sox probably won’t be as quick to call up Carlos Rodon as the Cubs will be to promote Kris Bryant. Still, the 2014 first-round pick likely is team’s fourth-best starter ahead of Hector Noesi and John Danks, and a May debut is quite possible. Given that U.S. Cellular is a tough place for pitchers and Rodon’s control still needs refining, I don’t have Rodon projected as an asset in shallow mixed leagues this year. He will have a great strikeout rate, but he’ll probably be a five- and six-inning pitcher. He’s not bad to have stashed away, but I don’t think he’s a priority. I have him 97th among SPs. … The White Sox are keeping all four of their second base options, if only until Sale returns. The assumption in recent weeks is that Micah Johnson would have the job, but the team is still talking up Carlos Sanchez. Frankly, I don’t see what they see in Sanchez. I’m not completely sold on Johnson either, but he should be the better player of the two and I think he’ll win out as the regular. If he starts all year, he could steal 30-40 bases from the bottom of the lineup. He probably won’t do much else to help fantasy leaguers, though.
Cleveland – It’s really disappointing that the Indians chose to have Danny Salazar work through some minor mechanical issues in Triple-A, but it seems that’s how they wanted this to play out all along; they did, after all, sign Gavin Floyd over the winter with the intention of sending down either Salazar or T.J. House. Instead of the injured Floyd, it’ll be Zach McAllister in the rotation, and he’s still a decent enough fifth starter, even if he’s no Salazar. Salazar will be up soon enough, and he’s worth holding on to in mixed leagues. … Jason Kipnis owners can breathe a sigh of relief with the news that he’ll occupy the second spot in the Indians lineup. Jose Ramirez might have hit there with a better spring; the Indians realize he’s no Kipnis, but they did want to break up the lefties at the top of the lineup. … Jesus Aguilar looked like the Indians’ best option to fill in for Nick Swisher (knees) while he spends the first couple of weeks, but the team wasn’t ready to give up on David Murphy or Ryan Raburn. At least they are better defensively with Murphy in right and Brandon Moss at DH than with Moss in right and Aguilar at DH. … That Moss, who is returning from hip surgery, has been playing right field every other day is a good sign. His hip seemed to scare off most of his potential suitors over the winter, but he had a normal and productive spring.
Detroit- Joe Nathan had a pretty good final week of the spring to affirm that he’d have the closer’s role all to himself initially. It helps his case some that Bruce Rondon was placed on the DL with biceps tendinitis. Any thought the Tigers might have had about bailing on Nathan hinged on both Joakim Soria and Rondon being healthy. … Justin Verlander’s triceps cramp turned into a strain, putting him on the disabled list for the first time in his career. He’s penciled in to start April 12, but this still might be a “more than meets the eye” situation. I’d take guys like Brandon McCarthy, Michael Pineda and Matt Cain over him in a mixed-league draft this weekend. … I wasn’t happy about the idea of Nick Castellanos batting as low as seventh for the Tigers. Brad Ausmus, though, actually has him penciled in as the No. 8 hitter, at least against right-handers. Even though I still think he’ll build on a solid rookie season, he’s slipped behind players like Pedro Alvarez, Moss and Lonnie Chisenhall as a CI option. … I have gotten increasingly optimistic about J.D. Martinez, who moved from 31st to 25th in my outfield rankings.
Houston – After flirting with keeping both Jake Marisnick and Jonathan Singleton, the Astros did the right thing and sent one of them down. Singleton was the obvious choice; I would have preferred to see him outhit Marisnick this spring and win the job, but he slumped after a decent start and Marisnick has showed definite signs of improvement. Besides, the Astros are quite a bit better defensively with Marisnick in center, Colby Rasmus in left and Evan Gattis at DH or first base. I’m still not very high on Marisnick as a fantasy property, but nine homers and 20 steals makes him my No. 85 outfielder. … After fighting it out all spring for one spot, both Roberto Hernandez and Asher Wojciechowski ended up in Houston’s rotation, a result of Brett Oberholtzer going on the DL with lat soreness. Wojciechowski was a nice surprise this spring, but there are still no shortage of more intriguing $1-$2 pitchers in AL-only leagues. … Luke Gregerson was finally officially given the nod as Houston’s closer, but since that was the assumption all along, it didn’t alter my rankings.
Kansas City – The only question the Royals faced this spring was whether to go with seven or eight relievers. Since they never pinch-hit anyway, it’ll probably be eight. One encouraging thing is that it looks like they’ll follow through on the idea of hitting Alex Gordon second. Gordon finished last season as the team’s No. 6 hitter, and this is obviously significantly better for his fantasy value. … One of my hunches this year is that Christian Colon eventually takes over as Kansas City’s second baseman because of some combination of injuries and ineffectiveness from Omar Infante. Infante, though, had a decent spring and hasn’t appeared limited physically, so he’ll be the starter early on.
Los Angeles – That Josh Hamilton wasn’t suspended for his drug relapse came as quite a surprise, but his timetable in his return from shoulder surgery is still way up in the air. I was proedicting a 50-game ban for Hamilton, but I also thought there’s a good chance it’d be at least that long before he was ready to play anyway. From the sound of things, there’s really no chance Hamilton debuts during April. He’s worth having stashed away in mixed leagues, but I think he’ll be more of a fringe guy than a legitimate third or fourth outfielder once he does return. … C.J. Cron had a terrific spring, hitting .426/.446/.779, to lock up a starting job in Hamilton’s absence. He might even hit cleanup against lefties. It makes him a fine early-season stopgap in mixed leagues. … I’m rooting for Johnny Giavotella as he gets his crack at the starting job at second base, but given his lack of power and speed, he doesn’t look like more than a $1 AL-only pick. … The Angels will need a fifth starter just once or twice before Garrett Richards (knee) returns, so Andrew Heaney doesn’t figure to get the call. They seem sold on Hector Santiago for the full-time opening in their rotation, but I don’t share their optimism. Heaney, Nick Tropeano or Drew Rucinski could replace him in a month or so.
Minnesota – Aaron Hicks down. Trevor May down. Josmil Pinto down. Even with Paul Molitor at the helm, it’s the same old Twins. They’ve even jettisoned their more interesting relievers in favor of older guys. Plus, Molitor is talking up the values of having a proven RBI guy (such as Torii Hunter, or maybe Torii Hunter) in the cleanup spot. I thought that’d be Kennys Vargas’s spot, but since he’ll bat fifth behind a guy with a subpar OBP, I lowered his projection some. … The one encouraging move the Twins made, sending Mike Pelfrey to the pen, was negated by Friday’s stunning news about Ervin Santana, who drew an 80-game PED ban. Pelfrey was immediately returned to the rotation, even though he’d seem to have more to offer as a reliever. Even before the Santana ban, I’d rather have seen May over Tommy Milone in the fifth spot. Milone is a big flyball pitcher, and the Twins’ outfield defense should rival San Diego’s for MLB’s worst. I don’t see him being useful in AL-only leagues. … I don’t know that the Twins were wrong to give up on Hicks, but it’s not like they had anything to lose by letting him spend April as a regular center fielder. Instead, they seem to have soured on him to the point that he’ll be shipped off in a minor deal sometime soon. Jordan Schafer might actually have more to offer than Hicks from a fantasy standpoint, simply because he loves to steal bases, but since he’ll bat ninth and sit against left-handers, he’s not a mixed-league guy. Shane Robinson is expected to start versus southpaws.
New York – The Yankees apparently won’t name a closer, instead choosing to play matchups with Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller. My guess is that it won’t last and manager Joe Girardi will eventually choose one of the two, more likely Betances. Betances has had me really nervous this spring, but he looked better Thursday, even though his breaking ball still wasn’t sharp. His velocity, often in the 89-92 mph range this spring, climbed back up to 91-95 mph. He ever touched 97 mph once. It lends credence to the Yankees’ statements that his spring problems are all mechanical and that there haven’t been any physical issues. I still suspect we’ll see a slow start from Betances, and Miller might be the Yankees’ leading saves guy in April, but I’m keeping Betances in the top 10 of the RP rankings. … I like Adam Warren as an AL-only starter. I think he’ll hold off Chris Capuano (quad) when the left-hander returns and keep his rotation spot. The Yankees should eventually get Ivan Nova (elbow) back, too, but who knows what the rotation might look like by then? … Yankees hitters to get modest bumps in the projections recently include Alex Rodriguez and Stephen Drew. I’m still not seeing anything to suggest that Mark Teixeira is going to be a decent regular this year.
Oakland – The A’s could really use an outfielder with Coco Crisp (elbow) joining Josh Reddick (oblique) on the shelf. Reddick might only miss a week, but that’d still leave the A’s playing two of Craig Gentry, Sam Fuld and Billy Burns each day, which isn’t the best of scenarios. Burns has been quite the spring star, hitting .397 with a .442 OBP, but this is a guy who came in at .237/.315/.302 in the minors last year. As a premium basestealer, he should have considerable value in AL-only leagues while he starts, but I don’t think he’ll help the A’s in the process. Ideally, the team would pluck an excess outfielder from the Padres or Red Sox. … I’m currently rolling with Drew Pomeranz 59th, Jesse Hahn 69th and Kendall Graveman 98th in the SP rankings. All would be higher if they were better bets to throw 200 innings, and I wouldn’t want to leave the first two unowned in any mixed leagues. Hahn is one of the biggest injury risks among AL starters, but I could definitely see him pitching like an All-Star for the first month or two (or three).
Seattle – Roenis Elias makes for a fine fifth starter, but he never stood a chance with the way Taijuan Walker threw this spring. It’s night and day how much different Walker looks now than from when he came back from shoulder issues last season. He’s still an injury risk, but he should be a mixed-league asset early on. … I have no concerns about Felix Hernandez’s 10.22 spring ERA. He’s healthy, and it’ll probably come together all at once as soon as the games start counting. … Mike Zunino was one of the Cactus League’s best hitters, stepping up with a .353 average and seven homers. Even his 14/6 K/BB ratio in 51 at-bats was a good sign from a guy who came in at 158/17 in 438 at-bats last year. Of course, there is a difference between spring pitching and regular-season pitching, and hurlers more capable of spotting low-and-away sliders can still carve up Zunino. I don’t imagine that he’ll hit for average this year, but as legitimate as his power is, it wouldn’t take all that much improvement to make him a top-10 fantasy catcher.
Tampa Bay – New Rays manager Kevin Cash brought an obvious fondness for Asdrubal Cabrera with him from Cleveland, which explains why Cabrera has hit third in every game he’s played this spring. Cabrera hasn’t exactly looked the part, batting .200 with one extra-base hit in 50 at-bats. But, then, if back-to-back 700 OPSs in 2013 and 2014 wasn’t enough to dissuade Cash from batting him third, one poor spring won’t do the trick. Cabrera makes for a better stopgap in mixed leagues as a No. 3 hitter, but I think that’s all he is. … The Rays still haven’t found a taker for David DeJesus (another guy who would make some sense for Oakland). He could cut into the fantasy value of John Jaso and Kevin Kiermaier some as the Rays give him spot duty in the hopes of trading him later. … I like the Erasmo Ramirez acquisition and I think he should have some value in AL-only leagues, but he could always be bounced from the rotation if Alex Cobb (forearm) and Drew Smyly (shoulder) return before the end of the month. Matt Andriese should be the first starter to get sent down. Then it would be between Ramirez and Nate Karns for one spot. Both of those guys are good $1 picks in AL-only formats.
Texas – I’m probably a sucker, but I’m starting to buy in to Elvis Andrus again. Not only did he bat .359 this spring, but he actually hit the ball with authority on several occasions. Rangers manager Jeff Banister seems to like him as a No. 2 hitter just as much as Ron Washington did, so I bumped Andrus from eighth to sixth in the shortstop rankings. … Nothing else that’s happened in Rangers camp has me excited. Ryan Rua won the left field job, but I expect middling power and a sub-.250 average. The hope there should be that Michael Choice tears it up in Triple-A and claims the job by June 1. The rotation could be the worst in baseball even if Derek Holland comes through like I think he will. Closer Neftali Feliz also hasn’t been sharp, though no one besides 21-year-old Keone Kela has looked like any sort of threat to his job. Kela is one of the best relief prospects in baseball, but I wouldn’t want him closing at any point of this year if I’m the Rangers.
Toronto – As a baseball fan, it’s really exciting to see the Blue Jays carrying 21-year-old Daniel Norris in the rotation and 20-year-olds Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna out of the pen. From a business standpoint, I think it’s a pretty bad call for the Jays, but at least Castro and Osuna probably aren’t in the majors for good. I suspect the Jays will send down Osuna at some point and stretch him back out as a rotation candidate. Castro is more likely to stay in the pen all year, though he should still get a chance to start next season. In spite of his youth, Castro might be the biggest threat to Brett Cecil’s closing gig. As for Norris, I think he’ll be a mixed-league asset at times this year, but that he’ll also go through some growing pains. He could also be limited to 160 innings or so, which would make him a September shutdown candidate. … Devon Travis won the starting job at second base by hitting .359 this spring, but that came with no homers and no successful steals in three attempts. He does have some pop, as well as the speed to steal 20 bases, but I don’t see much reason to try him in a mixed league.
National League Notes
Arizona – The Diamondbacks will do what they can to trade Aaron Hill after deciding to go with Ahmed at short and Owings at second base. Ahmed figures to be one of the league’s worst hitters, and he offers only modest steal potential from the bottom of the lineup. NL-only leaguers should be able to do better for $1. … I think Tomas is going down to Triple-A, but the Diamondbacks won’t confirm it. He can’t really be used as a regular third baseman at this point and the Diamondbacks haven’t given him any chance to get reaccustomed to outfield duty, so a stint in the minors makes the most sense. The long-term plan should be to bring him back as an outfielder, though Arizona clearly hasn’t given up hope for him at the hot corner yet.
Atlanta – Anyone hoping top prospect Jose Peraza might quickly win the second base job in Atlanta had to be disappointed by the events of last month. While Jace Peterson was impressing and stealing the position away from stopgap Alberto Callaspo, Peraza quietly went 1-for-16 before being sent down. I thought we might see Peraza up to take over the position in June, but that seems less likely now. I don’t see Peterson having much fantasy value as the starter; he’ll draw walks and steal some bases, but I’m skeptical that he’s ready to hit for average in the majors. … Manager Fredi Gonzalez’s recent lineups suggest that Andrelton Simmons will find himself hitting eighth for one of MLB’s very worst offenses. It’s not necessarily going to last, but it will kill his fantasy value while he’s there. Gonzalez suggested over the winter that Simmons would probably be the No. 2 hitter in between Nick Markakis and Freddie Freeman at the top of the order. That’s completely blown up now, with Eric Young Jr. set to assume leadoff duties, Peterson in the two hole and Markakis and Freeman hitting third and fourth, respectively. I liked Simmons as an MI option in mixed leagues in the previous scenario, but not if he’s batting in the bottom third of the order. … The post-Cahill trade surprise was that the Braves kept Eric Stults instead of Wandy Rodriguez as their fifth starter. I don’t think Rodriguez’s elbow is going to hold up, but he looked like he’d be more effective than Stults while he lasted. It was a pretty irrelevant move from a fantasy standpoint.
Chicago – It was always a lock that the Cubs would demote Bryant, but at least they’re not going to play the super-two game with him; all signs point to him making his major league debut before the end of the month. Until then, the Cubs will have Tommy La Stella, Mike Olt and Arismendy Alcatara fill two infield spots. My current projection calls for Bryant to hit .251 with 28 homers in 466 at-bats. … Javier Baez’s demotion also wasn’t a surprise at all, particularly after a spring in which he struck out 20 times and delivered just one extra-base hit. He’s still an excellent long-term property as a middle infielder with 35- or 40-homer power and speed. Ideally, he’ll earn his way back to the majors in June. Still, I don’t think it’s worth holding on to him in redraft mixed leagues. … Jorge Soler is one player I’ve grown fonder of this spring; he’s climbed from No. 34 to No. 32 and now No. 26 in my outfield rankings. He makes more contact than one would typically expect from a 23-year-old power hitter.
Cincinnati – Billy Hamilton’s discouraging spring had Reds manager Bryan Price shifting him to the seventh spot in the lineup for a couple of games earlier this week. The Reds, though, really don’t have any alternative to sticking with Hamilton. No one else on the roster would be adequate in center field, and Brandon Phillips is probably Price’s fallback in the leadoff spot. At least Hamilton is good enough on the basepaths that a .300 OBP from him would probably be as valuable as a .330 OBP from a slower player. Still, I did drop him a bit in the outfield ranks. … Raisel Iglesias will open the season in Cincinnati’s rotation, but there’s a good chance he’ll only stick until Homer Bailey (elbow) comes off the DL in a couple of weeks. Maybe if he outpitches Jason Marquis or Anthony DeSclafini, the Reds will have a change of heart. … Aroldis Chapman’s minor hamstring injury appears to be a false alarm, but it does make one wonder who would be the fallback in the closer’s role. Ideally, Tony Cingrani will emerge as the Reds’ No. 2 reliever, and he’s already showing signs of it after being bumped from the rotation competition earlier in the spring. He’s the one worth a $1 bid in NL-only leagues right now. Still, Kevin Gregg might be the early choice for closer if Chapman goes down, mostly because he does have the experience in the role. Jumbo Diaz is another possibility.
Colorado – The Rockies’ handling of top prospect Eddie Butler has left a great deal to be desired. Now the team appears to be leaning towards giving him a rotation spot, even though he’s getting over some shoulder fatigue. Last year, he immediately hurt his shoulder after being jumped from Double-A to the majors, and after being allowed to return and pitch meaningless innings in September, he experienced a setback. Even discounting the shoulder woes, I’m not convinced he’s ready to succeed in the majors. He’s not very tempting in NL-only leagues. … The Rockies have let Wilin Rosario do some catching this spring, but it looks like they’re sticking to the plan to use him primarily as a first baseman against left-handers. There’s little doubt that Nick Hundley is the starting catcher, and Michael McKenry is being kept around as his backup behind the plate. Something could well shake loose to get Rosario more playing time, but in the early going, he’s probably going to be pretty useless outside of NL-only leagues.
Los Angeles – The Dodgers might not name a closer while Kenley Jansen (foot) spends the first month of the season rehabbing. Joel Peralta (4 ER in 7 1/3 IP) and Chris Hatcher (6 ER in 8 1/3 IP) were the leading candidates for saves entering the spring, but neither has been among the team’s most impressive relievers. Lefty Paco Rodriguez seems back with a vengeance, drawing several compliments while pitching 10 1/3 scoreless innings, but while that’s good news for the Dodgers, he’s probably not going to close, at least not with any regularity. Maybe he could sneak in a save when lefties are due up in the ninth. I like what Sergio Santos has showed, and he’s probably the sleeper in the bunch. Still, if I had to speculate on any of the group, I’d still go Peralta. Unless manager Don Mattingly names a closer, I’d probably just avoid the whole bunch in mixed leagues. … Joc Pederson has had a terrific spring to emphatically win the center field job, but he hasn’t convinced Mattingly that he should bat higher than eighth. I think it’d make more sense to go with Juan Uribe in that spot; Uribe is a bad-ball hitter anyway and shouldn’t be harmed as much by hitting in front of the pitcher. Pederson is well worth owning in mixed leagues, but his value might not materialize until he moves up in the order some.
Miami – The Marlins, oddly enough, entered spring training with fewer questions than any NL team, and no injuries have crept up to wreak any havoc. I don’t like the way Mat Latos is throwing, and he’s someone I recommend being very wary of in fantasy leagues. In part because Latos figures to spend some time on the DL, I like David Phelps as an NL-only sleeper. He won’t have a rotation spot initially, but he should be solid when the opportunity comes. … I gave my Mike Morse projection a boost, which moved him from 56th to 47th in the outfield rankings. The reason he wasn’t that high initially is because I flag him as an injury risk. He still is, but maybe he’s less of one as a first baseman than he was as an outfielder. Batting cleanup behind Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton could put Morse is an many RBI situations as any NL hitter.
Milwaukee – After weighing moving Carlos Gomez down in the order, the Brewers settled on pretty sabr-friendly lineup: CF Gomez, C Jonathan Lucroy, RF Ryan Braun, 3B Aramis Ramirez, 1B Adam Lind, LF Khris Davis, 2B Scooter Gennett, SS Jean Segura. The only bad thing is that it kills Gennett’s fantasy value; I had been projecting him as a top-of-the-order guy. Gennett isn’t a basestealer and his run and RBI numbers won’t be pretty if he stays down there, so he could already be considered droppable in mixed leagues. … Don’t be fooled by the lineup, though: the Brewers aren’t truly sabr-friendly. No team looking to play the percentages would be penciling in both Lind and Gennett as full-time players like the Brewers are. Both should be platooned, but that won’t happen initially. Lind is a decent CI option as an everyday guy; the extra at-bats will make up for the weaker average that comes with him facing more left-handers.
New York – Juan Lagares’ strong showing this spring put the kibosh on the Mets’ idea of putting him in the ninth spot and batting the pitcher eighth. Obviously, that’s great news for his fantasy value, and since he’s pledged to do more basestealing, he a legitimate fifth outfielder in mixed leagues. … Daniel Murphy (hamstring) expects to be in the lineup on Opening Day, but his value has still taken a sharp downturn with the Mets’ decision to drop him from second to sixth in the lineup. On the other hand, Curtis Granderson has been one of my biggest risers this spring. Batting second, rather than sixth, will get him an extra at-bat every other day and likely turn him into a nice asset in runs scored. … The Mets are still ready to pull the trigger on a Dillon Gee trade if the right offer comes along, but they’re probably not going to bump Gee in favor of Rafael Montero if they fail to make a deal. Even so, I’m quite a bit higher on Montero than Gee. He’s No. 103 in my SP rankings, even as he starts out in middle relief.
Philadelphia – I don’t disagree with the Phillies’ decision to install Rule 5 pick Odubel Herrera in center field and shift Ben Revere to left, but at the same time, I don’t think Herrera is going fulfill his spring promise and prove useful offensively from day one. As a cheap speed play in NL-only leagues, he’d be nice. As a mixed-league middle infielder or outfielder, I doubt he’ll offer enough in the other four categories to be of use. One issue is that batting him second would set the Phillies up with at least four left-handed hitters in a row at the start of their lineup. Ideally, he’d bat towards the bottom of the order, but since Freddy Galvis and his lifetime .259 OBP seem to be the other option to hit second, the Phillies might as well just concede that lefties are going to have their way with them. … The Herrera promotion seemingly left Grady Sizemore out in the cold, and he wasn’t even included among the initial list of candidates to play right field in place of the injured Domonic Brown (Achilles’ tendon) because of his lack of arm strength. Sizemore, though, has now made several starts in right, and really, as bad as the Phillies are going to be, the right fielder’s lack of throwing ability ranks somewhere around 338th on their list of problems. They might as well put Sizemore out there until Brown gets back.
Pittsburgh – That the Pirates picked Jeff Locke over Vance Worley for their rotation was a huge surprise, especially since Worley actually had the better numbers of the two this spring. Still, as big of an upset as it might have been, I don’t think it was going to matter much either way. Locke isn’t going to pitch as well as Worley did last year, but neither was Worley. Locke is a perfectly fine bottom-of-the-rotation type, and since he’s in a really nice situation for pitchers, he’s worth grabbing in NL-only leagues. … Jung Ho Kang’s disappointing spring resulted in a .190/.277/.429 line and 16 strikeouts in 42 at-bats. It shouldn’t really be a surprise, though. Kang’s leg kick, like any such mechanism, works best when a batter is familiar with who he’s facing. Kang is unfamiliar with everyone. I’ve soured on his chances of being of any use in mixed leagues this year, but I still think the Pirates’ decision to sign him for four years will pay off down the line.
St. Louis – Jaime Garcia’s shoulder setback wasn’t necessarily bad news for the Cardinals. He was looking like he’d be a fine fifth starter while healthy, but since he was never going to stay healthy anyway, the Cardinals might as well see what Carlos Martinez can do. Martinez impressed this spring, striking out 21 and walking just six in 22 innings. Missing bats isn’t a problem for him, so if he can just keep the walk rate down, he should be a very successful starter, albeit one who will often come out after five or six innings. He has to be owned in mixed leagues. … Randall Grichuk’s fine spring has positioned him over Peter Bourjos as the team’s fourth outfielder, and I think the waiver claim of the Giants’ Gary Brown on Friday is another sign that the Cardinals wouldn’t mind moving on from Bourjos. He’s out of options, so there isn’t any sending him back to Triple-A. If he sticks around, starts figure to be few and far between. Grichuk needs at-bats to justify his presence on the roster, and even though Jason Heyward has a history of struggling against lefties, the Cardinals aren’t going to platoon him.
San Diego – No word yet on whether Brandon Morrow or Odrisamer Despaigne will be the Padres’ fifth starter. I haven’t seen either this spring, but the reports on Morrow have been less than inspiring. I think Morrow might be more valuable out of the pen on another team, but the Padres have enough depth there that they wouldn’t need him in close games anyway. The winner of the competition will be worth watching in mixed leagues, but probably doesn’t need to be picked up immediately. … The Padres have done nothing to solve their outfield overflow, which means they couldn’t keep Tommy Medica as a platoon partner for Yonder Alonso at first base. It seems that might be Wil Myers’ role, if he takes to the position quickly. It’d be a good idea, since sticking Cameron Maybin in center versus lefties would improve the defense some. … Myers appears set to be the leadoff man, with Alonso batting second. That’s bad for their RBI numbers, but good for everything else. … Even though the Padres could use another left-handed bat in the mix, Will Middlebrooks appears to have won the starting job at third base over Yangervis Solarte. He’ll be of some use in NL-only leagues.
San Francisco – The ERAs for the Giants’ five starters this spring: 4.32 (Tim Hudson), 4.91 (Madison Bumgarner), 6.27 (Tim Lincecum), 8.22 (Cain) and 9.64 (Jake Peavy). Bumgarner has an 18/1 K/BB ratio, so let’s not worry about that one. I’m surprised Cain hasn’t bounced back better after surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow, but he’s fine physically and he should get stronger. He’s still one of my favorite SP targets. Lincecum hasn’t showed anything to suggest his 2015 is going to be much different than his 2013 or 2014. … After initially talking up Brandon Belt as a No. 3 hitter, the Giants have decided to go with Angel Pagan there, at least until Hunter Pence (arm) comes off the disabled list. They’ll certainly be lacking for power from the top of the lineup, what with Norichika Aoki leading off and Joe Panik batting second. Pagan could be a nice asset in mixed leagues while hitting third, but his troublesome back prevents me from recommending him. I don’t think he’s going to hold up physically.
Washington – The Nationals are going to have to go it without Anthony Rendon (knee) for probably 2-4 weeks, Jayson Werth (shoulder) for 1-2 weeks and Denard Span (abdomen) for about a month. They haven’t committed to a replacement for Rondon yet, but as lousy as Danny Espinosa has looked after giving up switch-hitting, it seems like that they’ll use Yunel Escobar at third and Dan Uggla at second. Michael Taylor is locked into center and probably the leadoff spot, giving him a little mixed-league value early. Tyler Moore should be the left fielder until Werth gets back, with the newly acquired Matt den Dekker serving as a fourth outfielder. … It looks like manager Matt Williams prefers Escobar to Ian Desmond in the two hole, so Desmond’s value won’t get a boost in Rendon’s absence. … Drew Storen gave fantasy owners a little scare when he left his last outing with an injury, but since it turned out to be just a foot blister, he’ll be ready to go in the opener. In case something worse happens, I think Blake Treinen might turn out to be the eighth-inning guy ahead of Aaron Barrett. Casey Janssen (shoulder) could always reclaim the role when he comes off the DL, but it’d be better for the Nats if the younger guys got the job done.
After a hugely disappointing 2014 season that saw him walk 48 batters in 79 innings between Double- and Triple-A, top prospect Archie Bradley entered the spring somewhere around 10th or 11th on the Diamondbacks’ starting pitching depth chart. On Wednesday, he was so impressive against the Reds that the team decided he simply must be added to a five-man rotation that had just been named two days prior. One day later, Trevor Cahill was traded to Atlanta.
We shouldn’t feel bad for Cahill. He goes from one of NL’s worst teams to another, but he’s in a better ballpark with what will probably be a better defensive infield with the Braves. Cahill had his own disastrous 2014, getting bounced from Arizona’s rotation just a couple of weeks into the season, and actually getting sent to the minors for a spell. He ended up with a 5.61 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP, but he also finished with the best strikeout rate of his career and also a better-than-usual home run rate. He’s certainly more intriguing in NL-only leagues now, even if run support is likely to be a major issue. As a $1 pitcher, he’d be just fine.
As for Bradley, the upside is so tantalizing that it’s tempting to give him a bench spot in mixed leagues. Still, the more I look at it, I just can’t justify it. He walked only six in 22 1/3 innings this spring, but history suggests he’s not ready to sustain that kind of rate. Plus, he pitches for a really bad team. The Diamondbacks have decided to go with Nick Ahmed at shortstop and Chris Owings at second, giving the middle infield a boost. However, they still haven’t made the call at third between Yasmany Tomas and Jake Lamb. They are giving up a considerable amount of defense in left by playing David Peralta over Ender Inciarte against righties. Even worse, Cody Ross will start versus lefties. They’ll be awful in right field, too, with Mark Trumbo playing regularly. The defense is a big reason I didn’t have a single Diamondbacks pitcher among my top 120 starters until Thursday. Bradley now shows up at No. 114, and maybe I could go a little higher now that the team has settled on Ahmed (I’m not convinced that was the right call — he figures to be one of the league’s very worst hitters — but it will be good for the pitchers). Still, I don’t see Bradley pitching deep into games or racking up huge strikeout numbers. I like him and I look forward to seeing how this plays out, but there really isn’t any shortage of more interesting starter pickups in mixed leagues.
American League Notes
Baltimore – The Orioles apparently won’t announce a decision on Kevin Gausman’s rotation status until after Opening Day. I don’t understand the hold up. They have to know Gausman is one of their five best starters. Either they want him starting now or they think that putting him in the bullpen for the first month or so might keep him stronger in September and October. Going with the latter plan would be disappointing to fantasy owners, but it’s not such a bad idea for the Orioles. Gausman would still be worth a roster spot in mixed leagues. … Ubaldo Jimenez, who really did look much better as the spring went along, would be the fifth starter if Gausman is sent to the pen. It might make him worth the most minimal of fliers in AL-only leagues. … Manny Machado’s poor spring has likely cost him the second spot in the Baltimore lineup that he’s occupied for most of his career. Steve Pearce will probably get most of the starts there initially. Machado could always move back up, but I dropped his projection a bit. As tightly bunched as my top 10 third basemen are, it was enough to drop him from fifth to ninth in my rankings. … J.J. Hardy (shoulder) is set to join Matt Wieters (elbow) on the DL to start the year, but it looks like he’s just 7-10 days behind. Everth Cabrera should start over Ryan Flaherty at shortstop.
Boston – The loss of Christian Vazquez (elbow) for the season was a blow for the rather uninspiring Red Sox pitching staff, but the team will still have a quality framer and game-caller behind the plate for however long Ryan Hanigan lasts. It’s just up to whether the 34-year-old Hanigan is capable of starting even 90-100 games. His career high was 98 starts in 2012. He started 66 games each of the last two seasons. For that reason, it seems nearly certain that Blake Swihart will get to take over in June or July, if not earlier. I don’t think Swihart is ready to excel offensively, but he should be a No. 2 catcher in mixed leagues when his time comes. Right now, I have him 31st and Hanigan 38th in the catcher rankings. … Rusney Castillo was probably Triple-A bound from the moment he suffered a strained oblique early in camp, but he was really impressive after returning, hitting .310 with two homers in 29 at-bats and showing plenty of range in right field. Shane Victorino, meanwhile, hasn’t looked very good in right while recovering from his own physical problems. It’s hard to blame the Red Sox for sticking with Victorino — he’s due $13 million and he was one of the game’s best outfielders in 2013 — but I still think they’d prefer to trade him if a taker emerges. … That no Allen Craig trade has gotten done is a bigger letdown. Craig hasn’t resembled like the player he was in 2013, but he has looked a whole lot better than the Craig of last season. He should be a starting first baseman somewhere. On the Red Sox, his lack of range in right field cuts off his best path to playing time. If the Red Sox do trade Craig, I think they’d recall Castillo to serve as a fourth outfielder, with the idea that he’d eventually supplant Victorino. Castillo is a good use of a bench spot in mixed leagues. … Edward Mujica is expected to spend the first week or two closing while Koji Uehara continues go get over a hamstring strain.
Chicago – With Chris Sale set to debut on April 12, the White Sox probably won’t be as quick to call up Carlos Rodon as the Cubs will be to promote Kris Bryant. Still, the 2014 first-round pick likely is team’s fourth-best starter ahead of Hector Noesi and John Danks, and a May debut is quite possible. Given that U.S. Cellular is a tough place for pitchers and Rodon’s control still needs refining, I don’t have Rodon projected as an asset in shallow mixed leagues this year. He will have a great strikeout rate, but he’ll probably be a five- and six-inning pitcher. He’s not bad to have stashed away, but I don’t think he’s a priority. I have him 97th among SPs. … The White Sox are keeping all four of their second base options, if only until Sale returns. The assumption in recent weeks is that Micah Johnson would have the job, but the team is still talking up Carlos Sanchez. Frankly, I don’t see what they see in Sanchez. I’m not completely sold on Johnson either, but he should be the better player of the two and I think he’ll win out as the regular. If he starts all year, he could steal 30-40 bases from the bottom of the lineup. He probably won’t do much else to help fantasy leaguers, though.
Cleveland – It’s really disappointing that the Indians chose to have Danny Salazar work through some minor mechanical issues in Triple-A, but it seems that’s how they wanted this to play out all along; they did, after all, sign Gavin Floyd over the winter with the intention of sending down either Salazar or T.J. House. Instead of the injured Floyd, it’ll be Zach McAllister in the rotation, and he’s still a decent enough fifth starter, even if he’s no Salazar. Salazar will be up soon enough, and he’s worth holding on to in mixed leagues. … Jason Kipnis owners can breathe a sigh of relief with the news that he’ll occupy the second spot in the Indians lineup. Jose Ramirez might have hit there with a better spring; the Indians realize he’s no Kipnis, but they did want to break up the lefties at the top of the lineup. … Jesus Aguilar looked like the Indians’ best option to fill in for Nick Swisher (knees) while he spends the first couple of weeks, but the team wasn’t ready to give up on David Murphy or Ryan Raburn. At least they are better defensively with Murphy in right and Brandon Moss at DH than with Moss in right and Aguilar at DH. … That Moss, who is returning from hip surgery, has been playing right field every other day is a good sign. His hip seemed to scare off most of his potential suitors over the winter, but he had a normal and productive spring.
Detroit- Joe Nathan had a pretty good final week of the spring to affirm that he’d have the closer’s role all to himself initially. It helps his case some that Bruce Rondon was placed on the DL with biceps tendinitis. Any thought the Tigers might have had about bailing on Nathan hinged on both Joakim Soria and Rondon being healthy. … Justin Verlander’s triceps cramp turned into a strain, putting him on the disabled list for the first time in his career. He’s penciled in to start April 12, but this still might be a “more than meets the eye” situation. I’d take guys like Brandon McCarthy, Michael Pineda and Matt Cain over him in a mixed-league draft this weekend. … I wasn’t happy about the idea of Nick Castellanos batting as low as seventh for the Tigers. Brad Ausmus, though, actually has him penciled in as the No. 8 hitter, at least against right-handers. Even though I still think he’ll build on a solid rookie season, he’s slipped behind players like Pedro Alvarez, Moss and Lonnie Chisenhall as a CI option. … I have gotten increasingly optimistic about J.D. Martinez, who moved from 31st to 25th in my outfield rankings.
Houston – After flirting with keeping both Jake Marisnick and Jonathan Singleton, the Astros did the right thing and sent one of them down. Singleton was the obvious choice; I would have preferred to see him outhit Marisnick this spring and win the job, but he slumped after a decent start and Marisnick has showed definite signs of improvement. Besides, the Astros are quite a bit better defensively with Marisnick in center, Colby Rasmus in left and Evan Gattis at DH or first base. I’m still not very high on Marisnick as a fantasy property, but nine homers and 20 steals makes him my No. 85 outfielder. … After fighting it out all spring for one spot, both Roberto Hernandez and Asher Wojciechowski ended up in Houston’s rotation, a result of Brett Oberholtzer going on the DL with lat soreness. Wojciechowski was a nice surprise this spring, but there are still no shortage of more intriguing $1-$2 pitchers in AL-only leagues. … Luke Gregerson was finally officially given the nod as Houston’s closer, but since that was the assumption all along, it didn’t alter my rankings.
Kansas City – The only question the Royals faced this spring was whether to go with seven or eight relievers. Since they never pinch-hit anyway, it’ll probably be eight. One encouraging thing is that it looks like they’ll follow through on the idea of hitting Alex Gordon second. Gordon finished last season as the team’s No. 6 hitter, and this is obviously significantly better for his fantasy value. … One of my hunches this year is that Christian Colon eventually takes over as Kansas City’s second baseman because of some combination of injuries and ineffectiveness from Omar Infante. Infante, though, had a decent spring and hasn’t appeared limited physically, so he’ll be the starter early on.
Los Angeles – That Josh Hamilton wasn’t suspended for his drug relapse came as quite a surprise, but his timetable in his return from shoulder surgery is still way up in the air. I was proedicting a 50-game ban for Hamilton, but I also thought there’s a good chance it’d be at least that long before he was ready to play anyway. From the sound of things, there’s really no chance Hamilton debuts during April. He’s worth having stashed away in mixed leagues, but I think he’ll be more of a fringe guy than a legitimate third or fourth outfielder once he does return. … C.J. Cron had a terrific spring, hitting .426/.446/.779, to lock up a starting job in Hamilton’s absence. He might even hit cleanup against lefties. It makes him a fine early-season stopgap in mixed leagues. … I’m rooting for Johnny Giavotella as he gets his crack at the starting job at second base, but given his lack of power and speed, he doesn’t look like more than a $1 AL-only pick. … The Angels will need a fifth starter just once or twice before Garrett Richards (knee) returns, so Andrew Heaney doesn’t figure to get the call. They seem sold on Hector Santiago for the full-time opening in their rotation, but I don’t share their optimism. Heaney, Nick Tropeano or Drew Rucinski could replace him in a month or so.
Minnesota – Aaron Hicks down. Trevor May down. Josmil Pinto down. Even with Paul Molitor at the helm, it’s the same old Twins. They’ve even jettisoned their more interesting relievers in favor of older guys. Plus, Molitor is talking up the values of having a proven RBI guy (such as Torii Hunter, or maybe Torii Hunter) in the cleanup spot. I thought that’d be Kennys Vargas’s spot, but since he’ll bat fifth behind a guy with a subpar OBP, I lowered his projection some. … The one encouraging move the Twins made, sending Mike Pelfrey to the pen, was negated by Friday’s stunning news about Ervin Santana, who drew an 80-game PED ban. Pelfrey was immediately returned to the rotation, even though he’d seem to have more to offer as a reliever. Even before the Santana ban, I’d rather have seen May over Tommy Milone in the fifth spot. Milone is a big flyball pitcher, and the Twins’ outfield defense should rival San Diego’s for MLB’s worst. I don’t see him being useful in AL-only leagues. … I don’t know that the Twins were wrong to give up on Hicks, but it’s not like they had anything to lose by letting him spend April as a regular center fielder. Instead, they seem to have soured on him to the point that he’ll be shipped off in a minor deal sometime soon. Jordan Schafer might actually have more to offer than Hicks from a fantasy standpoint, simply because he loves to steal bases, but since he’ll bat ninth and sit against left-handers, he’s not a mixed-league guy. Shane Robinson is expected to start versus southpaws.
New York – The Yankees apparently won’t name a closer, instead choosing to play matchups with Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller. My guess is that it won’t last and manager Joe Girardi will eventually choose one of the two, more likely Betances. Betances has had me really nervous this spring, but he looked better Thursday, even though his breaking ball still wasn’t sharp. His velocity, often in the 89-92 mph range this spring, climbed back up to 91-95 mph. He ever touched 97 mph once. It lends credence to the Yankees’ statements that his spring problems are all mechanical and that there haven’t been any physical issues. I still suspect we’ll see a slow start from Betances, and Miller might be the Yankees’ leading saves guy in April, but I’m keeping Betances in the top 10 of the RP rankings. … I like Adam Warren as an AL-only starter. I think he’ll hold off Chris Capuano (quad) when the left-hander returns and keep his rotation spot. The Yankees should eventually get Ivan Nova (elbow) back, too, but who knows what the rotation might look like by then? … Yankees hitters to get modest bumps in the projections recently include Alex Rodriguez and Stephen Drew. I’m still not seeing anything to suggest that Mark Teixeira is going to be a decent regular this year.
Oakland – The A’s could really use an outfielder with Coco Crisp (elbow) joining Josh Reddick (oblique) on the shelf. Reddick might only miss a week, but that’d still leave the A’s playing two of Craig Gentry, Sam Fuld and Billy Burns each day, which isn’t the best of scenarios. Burns has been quite the spring star, hitting .397 with a .442 OBP, but this is a guy who came in at .237/.315/.302 in the minors last year. As a premium basestealer, he should have considerable value in AL-only leagues while he starts, but I don’t think he’ll help the A’s in the process. Ideally, the team would pluck an excess outfielder from the Padres or Red Sox. … I’m currently rolling with Drew Pomeranz 59th, Jesse Hahn 69th and Kendall Graveman 98th in the SP rankings. All would be higher if they were better bets to throw 200 innings, and I wouldn’t want to leave the first two unowned in any mixed leagues. Hahn is one of the biggest injury risks among AL starters, but I could definitely see him pitching like an All-Star for the first month or two (or three).
Seattle – Roenis Elias makes for a fine fifth starter, but he never stood a chance with the way Taijuan Walker threw this spring. It’s night and day how much different Walker looks now than from when he came back from shoulder issues last season. He’s still an injury risk, but he should be a mixed-league asset early on. … I have no concerns about Felix Hernandez’s 10.22 spring ERA. He’s healthy, and it’ll probably come together all at once as soon as the games start counting. … Mike Zunino was one of the Cactus League’s best hitters, stepping up with a .353 average and seven homers. Even his 14/6 K/BB ratio in 51 at-bats was a good sign from a guy who came in at 158/17 in 438 at-bats last year. Of course, there is a difference between spring pitching and regular-season pitching, and hurlers more capable of spotting low-and-away sliders can still carve up Zunino. I don’t imagine that he’ll hit for average this year, but as legitimate as his power is, it wouldn’t take all that much improvement to make him a top-10 fantasy catcher.
Tampa Bay – New Rays manager Kevin Cash brought an obvious fondness for Asdrubal Cabrera with him from Cleveland, which explains why Cabrera has hit third in every game he’s played this spring. Cabrera hasn’t exactly looked the part, batting .200 with one extra-base hit in 50 at-bats. But, then, if back-to-back 700 OPSs in 2013 and 2014 wasn’t enough to dissuade Cash from batting him third, one poor spring won’t do the trick. Cabrera makes for a better stopgap in mixed leagues as a No. 3 hitter, but I think that’s all he is. … The Rays still haven’t found a taker for David DeJesus (another guy who would make some sense for Oakland). He could cut into the fantasy value of John Jaso and Kevin Kiermaier some as the Rays give him spot duty in the hopes of trading him later. … I like the Erasmo Ramirez acquisition and I think he should have some value in AL-only leagues, but he could always be bounced from the rotation if Alex Cobb (forearm) and Drew Smyly (shoulder) return before the end of the month. Matt Andriese should be the first starter to get sent down. Then it would be between Ramirez and Nate Karns for one spot. Both of those guys are good $1 picks in AL-only formats.
Texas – I’m probably a sucker, but I’m starting to buy in to Elvis Andrus again. Not only did he bat .359 this spring, but he actually hit the ball with authority on several occasions. Rangers manager Jeff Banister seems to like him as a No. 2 hitter just as much as Ron Washington did, so I bumped Andrus from eighth to sixth in the shortstop rankings. … Nothing else that’s happened in Rangers camp has me excited. Ryan Rua won the left field job, but I expect middling power and a sub-.250 average. The hope there should be that Michael Choice tears it up in Triple-A and claims the job by June 1. The rotation could be the worst in baseball even if Derek Holland comes through like I think he will. Closer Neftali Feliz also hasn’t been sharp, though no one besides 21-year-old Keone Kela has looked like any sort of threat to his job. Kela is one of the best relief prospects in baseball, but I wouldn’t want him closing at any point of this year if I’m the Rangers.
Toronto – As a baseball fan, it’s really exciting to see the Blue Jays carrying 21-year-old Daniel Norris in the rotation and 20-year-olds Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna out of the pen. From a business standpoint, I think it’s a pretty bad call for the Jays, but at least Castro and Osuna probably aren’t in the majors for good. I suspect the Jays will send down Osuna at some point and stretch him back out as a rotation candidate. Castro is more likely to stay in the pen all year, though he should still get a chance to start next season. In spite of his youth, Castro might be the biggest threat to Brett Cecil’s closing gig. As for Norris, I think he’ll be a mixed-league asset at times this year, but that he’ll also go through some growing pains. He could also be limited to 160 innings or so, which would make him a September shutdown candidate. … Devon Travis won the starting job at second base by hitting .359 this spring, but that came with no homers and no successful steals in three attempts. He does have some pop, as well as the speed to steal 20 bases, but I don’t see much reason to try him in a mixed league.
National League Notes
Arizona – The Diamondbacks will do what they can to trade Aaron Hill after deciding to go with Ahmed at short and Owings at second base. Ahmed figures to be one of the league’s worst hitters, and he offers only modest steal potential from the bottom of the lineup. NL-only leaguers should be able to do better for $1. … I think Tomas is going down to Triple-A, but the Diamondbacks won’t confirm it. He can’t really be used as a regular third baseman at this point and the Diamondbacks haven’t given him any chance to get reaccustomed to outfield duty, so a stint in the minors makes the most sense. The long-term plan should be to bring him back as an outfielder, though Arizona clearly hasn’t given up hope for him at the hot corner yet.
Atlanta – Anyone hoping top prospect Jose Peraza might quickly win the second base job in Atlanta had to be disappointed by the events of last month. While Jace Peterson was impressing and stealing the position away from stopgap Alberto Callaspo, Peraza quietly went 1-for-16 before being sent down. I thought we might see Peraza up to take over the position in June, but that seems less likely now. I don’t see Peterson having much fantasy value as the starter; he’ll draw walks and steal some bases, but I’m skeptical that he’s ready to hit for average in the majors. … Manager Fredi Gonzalez’s recent lineups suggest that Andrelton Simmons will find himself hitting eighth for one of MLB’s very worst offenses. It’s not necessarily going to last, but it will kill his fantasy value while he’s there. Gonzalez suggested over the winter that Simmons would probably be the No. 2 hitter in between Nick Markakis and Freddie Freeman at the top of the order. That’s completely blown up now, with Eric Young Jr. set to assume leadoff duties, Peterson in the two hole and Markakis and Freeman hitting third and fourth, respectively. I liked Simmons as an MI option in mixed leagues in the previous scenario, but not if he’s batting in the bottom third of the order. … The post-Cahill trade surprise was that the Braves kept Eric Stults instead of Wandy Rodriguez as their fifth starter. I don’t think Rodriguez’s elbow is going to hold up, but he looked like he’d be more effective than Stults while he lasted. It was a pretty irrelevant move from a fantasy standpoint.
Chicago – It was always a lock that the Cubs would demote Bryant, but at least they’re not going to play the super-two game with him; all signs point to him making his major league debut before the end of the month. Until then, the Cubs will have Tommy La Stella, Mike Olt and Arismendy Alcatara fill two infield spots. My current projection calls for Bryant to hit .251 with 28 homers in 466 at-bats. … Javier Baez’s demotion also wasn’t a surprise at all, particularly after a spring in which he struck out 20 times and delivered just one extra-base hit. He’s still an excellent long-term property as a middle infielder with 35- or 40-homer power and speed. Ideally, he’ll earn his way back to the majors in June. Still, I don’t think it’s worth holding on to him in redraft mixed leagues. … Jorge Soler is one player I’ve grown fonder of this spring; he’s climbed from No. 34 to No. 32 and now No. 26 in my outfield rankings. He makes more contact than one would typically expect from a 23-year-old power hitter.
Cincinnati – Billy Hamilton’s discouraging spring had Reds manager Bryan Price shifting him to the seventh spot in the lineup for a couple of games earlier this week. The Reds, though, really don’t have any alternative to sticking with Hamilton. No one else on the roster would be adequate in center field, and Brandon Phillips is probably Price’s fallback in the leadoff spot. At least Hamilton is good enough on the basepaths that a .300 OBP from him would probably be as valuable as a .330 OBP from a slower player. Still, I did drop him a bit in the outfield ranks. … Raisel Iglesias will open the season in Cincinnati’s rotation, but there’s a good chance he’ll only stick until Homer Bailey (elbow) comes off the DL in a couple of weeks. Maybe if he outpitches Jason Marquis or Anthony DeSclafini, the Reds will have a change of heart. … Aroldis Chapman’s minor hamstring injury appears to be a false alarm, but it does make one wonder who would be the fallback in the closer’s role. Ideally, Tony Cingrani will emerge as the Reds’ No. 2 reliever, and he’s already showing signs of it after being bumped from the rotation competition earlier in the spring. He’s the one worth a $1 bid in NL-only leagues right now. Still, Kevin Gregg might be the early choice for closer if Chapman goes down, mostly because he does have the experience in the role. Jumbo Diaz is another possibility.
Colorado – The Rockies’ handling of top prospect Eddie Butler has left a great deal to be desired. Now the team appears to be leaning towards giving him a rotation spot, even though he’s getting over some shoulder fatigue. Last year, he immediately hurt his shoulder after being jumped from Double-A to the majors, and after being allowed to return and pitch meaningless innings in September, he experienced a setback. Even discounting the shoulder woes, I’m not convinced he’s ready to succeed in the majors. He’s not very tempting in NL-only leagues. … The Rockies have let Wilin Rosario do some catching this spring, but it looks like they’re sticking to the plan to use him primarily as a first baseman against left-handers. There’s little doubt that Nick Hundley is the starting catcher, and Michael McKenry is being kept around as his backup behind the plate. Something could well shake loose to get Rosario more playing time, but in the early going, he’s probably going to be pretty useless outside of NL-only leagues.
Los Angeles – The Dodgers might not name a closer while Kenley Jansen (foot) spends the first month of the season rehabbing. Joel Peralta (4 ER in 7 1/3 IP) and Chris Hatcher (6 ER in 8 1/3 IP) were the leading candidates for saves entering the spring, but neither has been among the team’s most impressive relievers. Lefty Paco Rodriguez seems back with a vengeance, drawing several compliments while pitching 10 1/3 scoreless innings, but while that’s good news for the Dodgers, he’s probably not going to close, at least not with any regularity. Maybe he could sneak in a save when lefties are due up in the ninth. I like what Sergio Santos has showed, and he’s probably the sleeper in the bunch. Still, if I had to speculate on any of the group, I’d still go Peralta. Unless manager Don Mattingly names a closer, I’d probably just avoid the whole bunch in mixed leagues. … Joc Pederson has had a terrific spring to emphatically win the center field job, but he hasn’t convinced Mattingly that he should bat higher than eighth. I think it’d make more sense to go with Juan Uribe in that spot; Uribe is a bad-ball hitter anyway and shouldn’t be harmed as much by hitting in front of the pitcher. Pederson is well worth owning in mixed leagues, but his value might not materialize until he moves up in the order some.
Miami – The Marlins, oddly enough, entered spring training with fewer questions than any NL team, and no injuries have crept up to wreak any havoc. I don’t like the way Mat Latos is throwing, and he’s someone I recommend being very wary of in fantasy leagues. In part because Latos figures to spend some time on the DL, I like David Phelps as an NL-only sleeper. He won’t have a rotation spot initially, but he should be solid when the opportunity comes. … I gave my Mike Morse projection a boost, which moved him from 56th to 47th in the outfield rankings. The reason he wasn’t that high initially is because I flag him as an injury risk. He still is, but maybe he’s less of one as a first baseman than he was as an outfielder. Batting cleanup behind Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton could put Morse is an many RBI situations as any NL hitter.
Milwaukee – After weighing moving Carlos Gomez down in the order, the Brewers settled on pretty sabr-friendly lineup: CF Gomez, C Jonathan Lucroy, RF Ryan Braun, 3B Aramis Ramirez, 1B Adam Lind, LF Khris Davis, 2B Scooter Gennett, SS Jean Segura. The only bad thing is that it kills Gennett’s fantasy value; I had been projecting him as a top-of-the-order guy. Gennett isn’t a basestealer and his run and RBI numbers won’t be pretty if he stays down there, so he could already be considered droppable in mixed leagues. … Don’t be fooled by the lineup, though: the Brewers aren’t truly sabr-friendly. No team looking to play the percentages would be penciling in both Lind and Gennett as full-time players like the Brewers are. Both should be platooned, but that won’t happen initially. Lind is a decent CI option as an everyday guy; the extra at-bats will make up for the weaker average that comes with him facing more left-handers.
New York – Juan Lagares’ strong showing this spring put the kibosh on the Mets’ idea of putting him in the ninth spot and batting the pitcher eighth. Obviously, that’s great news for his fantasy value, and since he’s pledged to do more basestealing, he a legitimate fifth outfielder in mixed leagues. … Daniel Murphy (hamstring) expects to be in the lineup on Opening Day, but his value has still taken a sharp downturn with the Mets’ decision to drop him from second to sixth in the lineup. On the other hand, Curtis Granderson has been one of my biggest risers this spring. Batting second, rather than sixth, will get him an extra at-bat every other day and likely turn him into a nice asset in runs scored. … The Mets are still ready to pull the trigger on a Dillon Gee trade if the right offer comes along, but they’re probably not going to bump Gee in favor of Rafael Montero if they fail to make a deal. Even so, I’m quite a bit higher on Montero than Gee. He’s No. 103 in my SP rankings, even as he starts out in middle relief.
Philadelphia – I don’t disagree with the Phillies’ decision to install Rule 5 pick Odubel Herrera in center field and shift Ben Revere to left, but at the same time, I don’t think Herrera is going fulfill his spring promise and prove useful offensively from day one. As a cheap speed play in NL-only leagues, he’d be nice. As a mixed-league middle infielder or outfielder, I doubt he’ll offer enough in the other four categories to be of use. One issue is that batting him second would set the Phillies up with at least four left-handed hitters in a row at the start of their lineup. Ideally, he’d bat towards the bottom of the order, but since Freddy Galvis and his lifetime .259 OBP seem to be the other option to hit second, the Phillies might as well just concede that lefties are going to have their way with them. … The Herrera promotion seemingly left Grady Sizemore out in the cold, and he wasn’t even included among the initial list of candidates to play right field in place of the injured Domonic Brown (Achilles’ tendon) because of his lack of arm strength. Sizemore, though, has now made several starts in right, and really, as bad as the Phillies are going to be, the right fielder’s lack of throwing ability ranks somewhere around 338th on their list of problems. They might as well put Sizemore out there until Brown gets back.
Pittsburgh – That the Pirates picked Jeff Locke over Vance Worley for their rotation was a huge surprise, especially since Worley actually had the better numbers of the two this spring. Still, as big of an upset as it might have been, I don’t think it was going to matter much either way. Locke isn’t going to pitch as well as Worley did last year, but neither was Worley. Locke is a perfectly fine bottom-of-the-rotation type, and since he’s in a really nice situation for pitchers, he’s worth grabbing in NL-only leagues. … Jung Ho Kang’s disappointing spring resulted in a .190/.277/.429 line and 16 strikeouts in 42 at-bats. It shouldn’t really be a surprise, though. Kang’s leg kick, like any such mechanism, works best when a batter is familiar with who he’s facing. Kang is unfamiliar with everyone. I’ve soured on his chances of being of any use in mixed leagues this year, but I still think the Pirates’ decision to sign him for four years will pay off down the line.
St. Louis – Jaime Garcia’s shoulder setback wasn’t necessarily bad news for the Cardinals. He was looking like he’d be a fine fifth starter while healthy, but since he was never going to stay healthy anyway, the Cardinals might as well see what Carlos Martinez can do. Martinez impressed this spring, striking out 21 and walking just six in 22 innings. Missing bats isn’t a problem for him, so if he can just keep the walk rate down, he should be a very successful starter, albeit one who will often come out after five or six innings. He has to be owned in mixed leagues. … Randall Grichuk’s fine spring has positioned him over Peter Bourjos as the team’s fourth outfielder, and I think the waiver claim of the Giants’ Gary Brown on Friday is another sign that the Cardinals wouldn’t mind moving on from Bourjos. He’s out of options, so there isn’t any sending him back to Triple-A. If he sticks around, starts figure to be few and far between. Grichuk needs at-bats to justify his presence on the roster, and even though Jason Heyward has a history of struggling against lefties, the Cardinals aren’t going to platoon him.
San Diego – No word yet on whether Brandon Morrow or Odrisamer Despaigne will be the Padres’ fifth starter. I haven’t seen either this spring, but the reports on Morrow have been less than inspiring. I think Morrow might be more valuable out of the pen on another team, but the Padres have enough depth there that they wouldn’t need him in close games anyway. The winner of the competition will be worth watching in mixed leagues, but probably doesn’t need to be picked up immediately. … The Padres have done nothing to solve their outfield overflow, which means they couldn’t keep Tommy Medica as a platoon partner for Yonder Alonso at first base. It seems that might be Wil Myers’ role, if he takes to the position quickly. It’d be a good idea, since sticking Cameron Maybin in center versus lefties would improve the defense some. … Myers appears set to be the leadoff man, with Alonso batting second. That’s bad for their RBI numbers, but good for everything else. … Even though the Padres could use another left-handed bat in the mix, Will Middlebrooks appears to have won the starting job at third base over Yangervis Solarte. He’ll be of some use in NL-only leagues.
San Francisco – The ERAs for the Giants’ five starters this spring: 4.32 (Tim Hudson), 4.91 (Madison Bumgarner), 6.27 (Tim Lincecum), 8.22 (Cain) and 9.64 (Jake Peavy). Bumgarner has an 18/1 K/BB ratio, so let’s not worry about that one. I’m surprised Cain hasn’t bounced back better after surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow, but he’s fine physically and he should get stronger. He’s still one of my favorite SP targets. Lincecum hasn’t showed anything to suggest his 2015 is going to be much different than his 2013 or 2014. … After initially talking up Brandon Belt as a No. 3 hitter, the Giants have decided to go with Angel Pagan there, at least until Hunter Pence (arm) comes off the disabled list. They’ll certainly be lacking for power from the top of the lineup, what with Norichika Aoki leading off and Joe Panik batting second. Pagan could be a nice asset in mixed leagues while hitting third, but his troublesome back prevents me from recommending him. I don’t think he’s going to hold up physically.
Washington – The Nationals are going to have to go it without Anthony Rendon (knee) for probably 2-4 weeks, Jayson Werth (shoulder) for 1-2 weeks and Denard Span (abdomen) for about a month. They haven’t committed to a replacement for Rondon yet, but as lousy as Danny Espinosa has looked after giving up switch-hitting, it seems like that they’ll use Yunel Escobar at third and Dan Uggla at second. Michael Taylor is locked into center and probably the leadoff spot, giving him a little mixed-league value early. Tyler Moore should be the left fielder until Werth gets back, with the newly acquired Matt den Dekker serving as a fourth outfielder. … It looks like manager Matt Williams prefers Escobar to Ian Desmond in the two hole, so Desmond’s value won’t get a boost in Rendon’s absence. … Drew Storen gave fantasy owners a little scare when he left his last outing with an injury, but since it turned out to be just a foot blister, he’ll be ready to go in the opener. In case something worse happens, I think Blake Treinen might turn out to be the eighth-inning guy ahead of Aaron Barrett. Casey Janssen (shoulder) could always reclaim the role when he comes off the DL, but it’d be better for the Nats if the younger guys got the job done.
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