The Breakdown: Big Wednesday Breakdown
So this is it for the Bruski Breakdown this season and I hope you guys have enjoyed the extra analysis. It’s a heavy operation and I don’t know how long I’ll have the legs to swing it, but in preparing it I feel like I’m on my toes and hopefully the same applies to you when you’re done reading it.
After we power through the last two weeks or so of the regular season, we’ll circle up on the Bruski 150 and see how it did. The playoffs will be in full-swing by then and before you know it we’ll be drafting in October. For those of you still competing, good luck to you. I’m in a 3-4 team race over at the National Fantasy Basketball Championship for the whole enchilada and a big $17,000 prize, so I’ll take any luck you guys can send me.
For real-time news and fantasy information, you can click here to follow me on Twitter.
Editor’s Note: Play one-day fantasy basketball tonight! Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a $175,000 league for Thursday’s NBA games. It’s just $2 to join and first place wins $15,000. Starts Thursday at 8:00pm ET. Enter now!
SNEAKING OUT THE WINDOW
The Nets snuck out of Madison Square Garden with a late-win over the Knicks and kept themselves in a tie for the seven- and eight-slots in the East, a half game in front of the Celtics at No. 9. The Hornets and Pacers are clinging to the last rungs of playoff hope but still have a shot.
Other than Brook Lopez’s (18 points, seven rebounds, five blocks) surge of first round production, the other story for Brooklyn has been Deron Williams’ ankles holding up after the All Star break. He put up 26 points on 11-of-21 shooting with four treys, seven boards, seven assists and one steal in 34 minutes, while Jarrett Jack’s struggles have worsened with time and he managed just seven points with five assists in his 15 minutes. This playoff chase and Williams’ current hot streak are a scenario beyond most owners’ dreams a few months ago.
Alan Anderson was a sleeper of mine from Fantasy Extra and he did well enough in his first outing this week, but last night’s four points and not much else basically made it a three-game week. With his schedule advantage out of the way he has a one-game leash with me unless I’m desperate for threes.
Markel Brown (14 points, four rebounds, three steals, 35 minutes) has had a solid four-game stretch of late-round value, averaging 11.5 points with 1.3 treys, 4.3 boards, 1.5 steals and 50 percent shooting. It’s hard to put my full faith behind him hanging onto that type of value and I’m not giving him anything higher than a 14-team grade.
RUN RICKY RUN
The challenge for fantasy owners when considering the Knicks has been finding that next great tanky value, and to date it has been Langston Galloway (13 points, five boards, four assists, three steals, two threes) and Andrea Bargnani (22 points, five rebounds, two threes, one block).
Ricky Ledo has been in the sleepers section of Fantasy Extra for two weeks now with a target on this week for his first real chance at making noise. Expecting him to arrive and do big things in his first week was asking too much in my opinion. So last night he made his first big noise with 13 points on 4-of-11 shooting, two threes, 3-of-3 FTs, six rebounds and four assists in 26 minutes.
I’d expect his minutes to slowly increase up over the 30 mpg mark unless he does something to lose Derek Fisher’s favor, and that doesn’t sound like it’s hard to do. He profiles as a guy that would post inefficient shooting guard-like numbers, with the hope being that the garbage-time environment in New York would lend itself to increased rebounding and defensive stats. The Knicks have a neutral schedule compared to other teams, so this is still deep sleeper territory but he’s worth a look.
Cleanthony Early put his name in standard league discussion last night, too, as he hit 6-of-11 shots (including two threes) for 14 points, six boards, one steal and two blocks in 27 minutes. He’s putting up mid-round numbers in a small four-game sample size since returning to action, but like most of his teammates he’s a crapshoot to pan out. Unlike some of those folks, though, he does have a stat set that lends itself to standard league value.
HAVING A BLAST
The Pistons don’t have much to play for and when Reggie Jackson (flu) had his ankle stepped on, it was basically the end of the game in their loss to the Hornets. Jackson is probably having a blast as the lead guard and I’d expect him to try and play through anything he can within reason, and it doesn’t hurt that Spencer Dinwiddie (ankle) is day-to-day.
Andre Drummond scored 13 points with nine rebounds and two steals, but hit just 6-of-15 shots from the field and 1-of-7 from the line, showing why he has been a punter’s play only this season. Until Greg Monroe comes back, Anthony Tolliver is a good bet for numbers in the ballpark of his 10 points, two threes, eight boards, four assists and one steal in 31 minutes.
FALLING APART
Al Jefferson is all banged up due to his knee and he took an elbow to the dome from Andre Drummond, but stayed in the game and finished with 11 points, nine boards, three assists and four blocks in 26 minutes.
His Hornets squad put its foot on the gas early and didn’t let up, with Kemba Walker (17 points, six rebounds, four assists, three steals, two threes) pushing the offense and Marvin Williams (18 points, six boards, one steal, one block, three triples) helping to round things out. With the Hornets’ league-best schedule to finish here, I like Williams to be owned in standard leagues as they’re in a playoff hunt and he’s looking at late-round value with mid-round upside during the upcoming four-game week. Other late-round guys like Gerald Henderson (14 points, five rebounds, two steals, one trey) and Mo Williams (13 points, six assists, one three, one steal) also get the same type of scheduling bump.
LET’S TAKE THE DAY OFF
The Spurs got the equivalent of a rest day against the overmatched Orlando Magic, so no starter played more than 22 minutes and none of their stat lines were great. Unlike past years where this type of thing might be causing a mass panic, the Spurs have yet another four-game week after this week and they’re still active in the playoff seeding hunt. Their great schedule has made owning guys like Boris Diaw (11 points, four rebounds, four assists, two steals, two threes, one block) and Tiago Splitter (eight points, seven boards, two assists) a profitable endeavor.
ALL SYSTEMS GO
The Magic had nowhere near the fortitude to turn away a surging Spurs squad last night, but the key guys got their fill per usual. Tobias Harris scored 18 points with seven boards, one steal, one block and one triple, Nikola Vucevic went for 16 and 11 with five assists and three blocks, and Victor Oladipo served up 24 points, six rebounds, seven assists and two treys in his 40 minutes. Elfrid Payton did it right with 7-of-15 makes (0-for-0 FTs) for 14 points, seven boards, seven assists, four steals and one block, and they’ll all be worth deploying down the stretch.
BLOWN TIRE
There was some updated news in the middle of the night on Isaiah Canaan’s ankle, which was that he left the locker room on crutches without putting any weight on it. Canaan left a blowout loss late so it was unclear how serious it was, and though he could have been doing all of that stuff to play things safe I’m definitely considering the chance he’s missing games. Canaan got back on the right side of the ledger with owners on an 18-point night including four treys, three boards, six assists and two steals in just 22 minutes, so he’s an upside guy with schedule issues (just two games next week) as long as the injury sounds like it’s relatively minor.
Ish Smith (23 points, 11-of-17 FGs, one three, three rebounds, three assists, three steals) should be locked and loaded into lineups for the rest of the week and then next week he’ll probably be best suited as a desperation play, depending on how your format works. Robert Covington (six points, 2-of-10 FGs, one three, five rebounds, three assists, one steal) fits in that same boat, while Nerlens Noel (14 points, 10 boards, three assists, two steals, two blocks) gets the nod in that lineup even in a two-game slate.
MY FAVORITE MARCIN
The Marcin Gortat drama after a game in which he scored 23 points on 10-of-11 shooting with 14 rebounds, three assists and two blocks is pretty telling. The coach, John Wall, and Bradley Beal each spent some portion of their postgame saying how he was being more assertive with his rolls to the hoop, while Gortat was saying that he rolls the same way every night (and presumably doesn’t get the ball enough). The irritation between all sides was reported in a few different places, and after a win this doesn’t bode well for their already declining chances of coming out of the East.
Bradley Beal hit a good clip of his shots at 9-of-18 from the field, but his 20-5-5 line was empty in the money counting stat categories. He just can’t win this season. Paul Pierce was rested and he isn’t a must-own player, and Otto Porter Jr. (15 points, seven boards, one three, two steals, 38 minutes) has some desperation appeal in 12-14 game formats for any time that Pierce stays out.
THAT IS LIKE SO YESTERDAY
The Pacers were the ‘it’ team if there can be such a thing at the bottom of the East, but just as fast as folks could pick up that storyline and run with it the bottom fell out. After a 13-2 stretch they uncorked a 2-9 run, capped off by back-to-back road losses to the Nets on Tuesday and the Celtics last night. Now they’re sitting 2.5 games behind the Nets at No. 8 with the Celtics and Hornets in-between.
The only Indy player that can be counted on as a postseason factor is George Hill (21 points, six boards, six assists, three treys) and though he couldn’t possibly make up for his injuries in a Roto league, he is making playoff owners rich by posting top-20 numbers every night. David West (10 points, eight boards, three assists) is creeping back toward respectability in 12-team formats and the only hope there is that he’s going to turn it on in this chase for a playoff spot.
Roy Hibbert (seven points, three boards, one block) from last year is still one of the worst DPOY votes I’ve seen in a long time, and the duo of C.J. Miles (12 points, one three, three boards, two steals, one block) and Rodney Stuckey (16 points, two boards, one steal, 6-of-9 FGs, one trey) are as banged up as they come. I like Miles over Stuckey as a late-round value with a hint of upside if he gets hot and some risk if everything falls apart. I think Stuckey’s days in standard 12-team leagues are probably over, as is C.J. Watson’s (five points, two boards, two assists) usefulness now that everybody is back, albeit with issues.
SURGING CELTICS
Unlike their opponents last night, the Celtics won their last two games against teams chasing for the East’s final two playoff slots. Though Isaiah Thomas (back) hit just 2-of-10 shots and had four turnovers he looked a lot more spry, and his control of the offense was noted as he handed out six assists in 22 minutes to go with his eight points, four rebounds and one steal. I can’t imagine having him out of lineups knowing he’ll improve with every contest.
Kelly Olynyk has been a mystery and he showed up on the injury report late when he was elbowed in the eye during shootaround. Of course that means he broke his slump and scored 19 points on 7-of-10 shooting with three treys, two boards, two assists, one steal and one block in his 22 minutes. He’s a high-risk, good-upside pickup at this point with no real traction in fantasy leagues since returning from his serious ankle injury. The Celtics are just a half-game behind the Nets for the No. 8 slot and they’re relatively well-positioned to make the playoffs
THE BENEFITS OF LOW EXPECTATIONS
The Kings lucked into playing a Houston squad that seriously looked like they didn’t sleep the night before the game. DeMarcus Cousins bucked reports that he might only play home games by suiting up, posting a ridiculous 24 points with 21 rebounds, 10 assists, three steals and six blocks. Most of the guys that had a chance at fantasy value played at their ceilings, including Omri Casspi (18 points, seven boards, four assists, three steals, five turnovers), and Ray McCallum (14 points, 5-of-6 FGs, two threes, three rebounds, six assists, one steal).
Ben McLemore (14 points, 6-of-10 FGs, two threes, four rebounds, two assists, one steal, one block) and Jason Thompson (16 points, 10 boards, one steal) played at their ceilings, too. Sac has a league-best schedule and that will help each of these guys, but only McCallum looks like a must-own player in 12-team formats. You can build a case that any of the rest can get hot, but consistency is going to be an issue and if Rudy Gay (concussion) and Cousins happen to suit up in the same game down the road it kills the rest of the box score.
HARDEN SCORES 51 POINTS
I covered a lot of this in the Dose but 51 points – even against the Kings – deserves a second mention. James Harden got that and more with 16-of-25 makes (8-of-9 3PTs, 11-of-13 FTs), eight rebounds, six assists and three steals. The only thing that kept this from beating Chris Paul’s massive line were the seven turnovers, which was indicative of the sloppy game the Rockets played from the start.
Terrence Jones looks a bit out of shape but luckily the guys he beat up on were in even worse shape, as he blocked seven shots with 16 points, seven rebounds, two threes and a steal. He should be locked into lineups and Rockets fans entertaining (false) championship hopes need to hope he can play his way into shape over the next two weeks.
BUTLER BACK
The Bulls aren’t doing themselves any favors with the skeptics as they lost another game last night – this time on the road against a Bucks squad that could very well end up being their first round playoff opponent. They let Aaron Brooks (11 points, two threes, three boards, three assists, three steals, one block) get beat up by Michael Carter-Williams because they don’t like to double-team, but beyond that there wasn’t any big news.
Jimmy Butler reassumed the role of primary offensive threat with 25 points on 8-of-18 shooting, one trey, 8-of-8 FTs, seven boards, three assists, three steals and one block. I found it interesting but not surprising that Tom Thibodeau isn’t going to alter his practice plans for Derrick Rose’s return, speaking mostly to which guys he’ll be sparring with in practice as he works to get back on the floor. I think Rose should step into a secondary bench role when he returns, and perhaps Thibs isn’t going to blindly ram him into his old paradigm and old No. 1 role. Rose simply isn’t that guy anymore and this team is going to go as far as Jimmy and Pau Gasol (14 & 11) take them.
The former MVP could return ‘next week’ according to beat writer Sam Smith, and that would be bad news for Brooks’ value. Kirk Hinrich left last night’s game with a knee injury and he will be evaluated today. It’s doubtful the Bulls would step up Rose’s timetable to accommodate for that.
WE CAN DO IT
The Bucks got a much-needed shot in the arm in last night’s win over the Bulls, who could easily be their first round opponent in the playoffs. They got Michael Carter-Williams (21 points, 9-of-19 FGs, 10 boards, two assists, one steal) off the schnied and not a moment too soon, as he has been crowned as the cause of their recent losing ways and that’s not doing anybody any good in Milwaukee.
The box score carried no real surprises though Zaza Pachulia’s light four-point, 10-rebound night was noted since he can start to dim pretty quickly at times, and O.J. Mayo had a nice night with 13 points on 5-of-9 shooting, three treys, two boards, three assists and two steals in 27 minutes. Let’s see Mayo do it again before hopping blindly on that train. John Henson is a blocks and boards guy that owners may want to speculate on, and he turned up 11 points with five rebounds, one steal and three blocks in his customary 19 minutes off the bench.
So this is it for the Bruski Breakdown this season and I hope you guys have enjoyed the extra analysis. It’s a heavy operation and I don’t know how long I’ll have the legs to swing it, but in preparing it I feel like I’m on my toes and hopefully the same applies to you when you’re done reading it.
After we power through the last two weeks or so of the regular season, we’ll circle up on the Bruski 150 and see how it did. The playoffs will be in full-swing by then and before you know it we’ll be drafting in October. For those of you still competing, good luck to you. I’m in a 3-4 team race over at the National Fantasy Basketball Championship for the whole enchilada and a big $17,000 prize, so I’ll take any luck you guys can send me.
For real-time news and fantasy information, you can click here to follow me on Twitter.
Editor’s Note: Play one-day fantasy basketball tonight! Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a $175,000 league for Thursday’s NBA games. It’s just $2 to join and first place wins $15,000. Starts Thursday at 8:00pm ET. Enter now!
SNEAKING OUT THE WINDOW
The Nets snuck out of Madison Square Garden with a late-win over the Knicks and kept themselves in a tie for the seven- and eight-slots in the East, a half game in front of the Celtics at No. 9. The Hornets and Pacers are clinging to the last rungs of playoff hope but still have a shot.
Other than Brook Lopez’s (18 points, seven rebounds, five blocks) surge of first round production, the other story for Brooklyn has been Deron Williams’ ankles holding up after the All Star break. He put up 26 points on 11-of-21 shooting with four treys, seven boards, seven assists and one steal in 34 minutes, while Jarrett Jack’s struggles have worsened with time and he managed just seven points with five assists in his 15 minutes. This playoff chase and Williams’ current hot streak are a scenario beyond most owners’ dreams a few months ago.
Alan Anderson was a sleeper of mine from Fantasy Extra and he did well enough in his first outing this week, but last night’s four points and not much else basically made it a three-game week. With his schedule advantage out of the way he has a one-game leash with me unless I’m desperate for threes.
Markel Brown (14 points, four rebounds, three steals, 35 minutes) has had a solid four-game stretch of late-round value, averaging 11.5 points with 1.3 treys, 4.3 boards, 1.5 steals and 50 percent shooting. It’s hard to put my full faith behind him hanging onto that type of value and I’m not giving him anything higher than a 14-team grade.
RUN RICKY RUN
The challenge for fantasy owners when considering the Knicks has been finding that next great tanky value, and to date it has been Langston Galloway (13 points, five boards, four assists, three steals, two threes) and Andrea Bargnani (22 points, five rebounds, two threes, one block).
Ricky Ledo has been in the sleepers section of Fantasy Extra for two weeks now with a target on this week for his first real chance at making noise. Expecting him to arrive and do big things in his first week was asking too much in my opinion. So last night he made his first big noise with 13 points on 4-of-11 shooting, two threes, 3-of-3 FTs, six rebounds and four assists in 26 minutes.
I’d expect his minutes to slowly increase up over the 30 mpg mark unless he does something to lose Derek Fisher’s favor, and that doesn’t sound like it’s hard to do. He profiles as a guy that would post inefficient shooting guard-like numbers, with the hope being that the garbage-time environment in New York would lend itself to increased rebounding and defensive stats. The Knicks have a neutral schedule compared to other teams, so this is still deep sleeper territory but he’s worth a look.
Cleanthony Early put his name in standard league discussion last night, too, as he hit 6-of-11 shots (including two threes) for 14 points, six boards, one steal and two blocks in 27 minutes. He’s putting up mid-round numbers in a small four-game sample size since returning to action, but like most of his teammates he’s a crapshoot to pan out. Unlike some of those folks, though, he does have a stat set that lends itself to standard league value.
HAVING A BLAST
The Pistons don’t have much to play for and when Reggie Jackson (flu) had his ankle stepped on, it was basically the end of the game in their loss to the Hornets. Jackson is probably having a blast as the lead guard and I’d expect him to try and play through anything he can within reason, and it doesn’t hurt that Spencer Dinwiddie (ankle) is day-to-day.
Andre Drummond scored 13 points with nine rebounds and two steals, but hit just 6-of-15 shots from the field and 1-of-7 from the line, showing why he has been a punter’s play only this season. Until Greg Monroe comes back, Anthony Tolliver is a good bet for numbers in the ballpark of his 10 points, two threes, eight boards, four assists and one steal in 31 minutes.
FALLING APART
Al Jefferson is all banged up due to his knee and he took an elbow to the dome from Andre Drummond, but stayed in the game and finished with 11 points, nine boards, three assists and four blocks in 26 minutes.
His Hornets squad put its foot on the gas early and didn’t let up, with Kemba Walker (17 points, six rebounds, four assists, three steals, two threes) pushing the offense and Marvin Williams (18 points, six boards, one steal, one block, three triples) helping to round things out. With the Hornets’ league-best schedule to finish here, I like Williams to be owned in standard leagues as they’re in a playoff hunt and he’s looking at late-round value with mid-round upside during the upcoming four-game week. Other late-round guys like Gerald Henderson (14 points, five rebounds, two steals, one trey) and Mo Williams (13 points, six assists, one three, one steal) also get the same type of scheduling bump.
LET’S TAKE THE DAY OFF
The Spurs got the equivalent of a rest day against the overmatched Orlando Magic, so no starter played more than 22 minutes and none of their stat lines were great. Unlike past years where this type of thing might be causing a mass panic, the Spurs have yet another four-game week after this week and they’re still active in the playoff seeding hunt. Their great schedule has made owning guys like Boris Diaw (11 points, four rebounds, four assists, two steals, two threes, one block) and Tiago Splitter (eight points, seven boards, two assists) a profitable endeavor.
ALL SYSTEMS GO
The Magic had nowhere near the fortitude to turn away a surging Spurs squad last night, but the key guys got their fill per usual. Tobias Harris scored 18 points with seven boards, one steal, one block and one triple, Nikola Vucevic went for 16 and 11 with five assists and three blocks, and Victor Oladipo served up 24 points, six rebounds, seven assists and two treys in his 40 minutes. Elfrid Payton did it right with 7-of-15 makes (0-for-0 FTs) for 14 points, seven boards, seven assists, four steals and one block, and they’ll all be worth deploying down the stretch.
BLOWN TIRE
There was some updated news in the middle of the night on Isaiah Canaan’s ankle, which was that he left the locker room on crutches without putting any weight on it. Canaan left a blowout loss late so it was unclear how serious it was, and though he could have been doing all of that stuff to play things safe I’m definitely considering the chance he’s missing games. Canaan got back on the right side of the ledger with owners on an 18-point night including four treys, three boards, six assists and two steals in just 22 minutes, so he’s an upside guy with schedule issues (just two games next week) as long as the injury sounds like it’s relatively minor.
Ish Smith (23 points, 11-of-17 FGs, one three, three rebounds, three assists, three steals) should be locked and loaded into lineups for the rest of the week and then next week he’ll probably be best suited as a desperation play, depending on how your format works. Robert Covington (six points, 2-of-10 FGs, one three, five rebounds, three assists, one steal) fits in that same boat, while Nerlens Noel (14 points, 10 boards, three assists, two steals, two blocks) gets the nod in that lineup even in a two-game slate.
MY FAVORITE MARCIN
The Marcin Gortat drama after a game in which he scored 23 points on 10-of-11 shooting with 14 rebounds, three assists and two blocks is pretty telling. The coach, John Wall, and Bradley Beal each spent some portion of their postgame saying how he was being more assertive with his rolls to the hoop, while Gortat was saying that he rolls the same way every night (and presumably doesn’t get the ball enough). The irritation between all sides was reported in a few different places, and after a win this doesn’t bode well for their already declining chances of coming out of the East.
Bradley Beal hit a good clip of his shots at 9-of-18 from the field, but his 20-5-5 line was empty in the money counting stat categories. He just can’t win this season. Paul Pierce was rested and he isn’t a must-own player, and Otto Porter Jr. (15 points, seven boards, one three, two steals, 38 minutes) has some desperation appeal in 12-14 game formats for any time that Pierce stays out.
THAT IS LIKE SO YESTERDAY
The Pacers were the ‘it’ team if there can be such a thing at the bottom of the East, but just as fast as folks could pick up that storyline and run with it the bottom fell out. After a 13-2 stretch they uncorked a 2-9 run, capped off by back-to-back road losses to the Nets on Tuesday and the Celtics last night. Now they’re sitting 2.5 games behind the Nets at No. 8 with the Celtics and Hornets in-between.
The only Indy player that can be counted on as a postseason factor is George Hill (21 points, six boards, six assists, three treys) and though he couldn’t possibly make up for his injuries in a Roto league, he is making playoff owners rich by posting top-20 numbers every night. David West (10 points, eight boards, three assists) is creeping back toward respectability in 12-team formats and the only hope there is that he’s going to turn it on in this chase for a playoff spot.
Roy Hibbert (seven points, three boards, one block) from last year is still one of the worst DPOY votes I’ve seen in a long time, and the duo of C.J. Miles (12 points, one three, three boards, two steals, one block) and Rodney Stuckey (16 points, two boards, one steal, 6-of-9 FGs, one trey) are as banged up as they come. I like Miles over Stuckey as a late-round value with a hint of upside if he gets hot and some risk if everything falls apart. I think Stuckey’s days in standard 12-team leagues are probably over, as is C.J. Watson’s (five points, two boards, two assists) usefulness now that everybody is back, albeit with issues.
SURGING CELTICS
Unlike their opponents last night, the Celtics won their last two games against teams chasing for the East’s final two playoff slots. Though Isaiah Thomas (back) hit just 2-of-10 shots and had four turnovers he looked a lot more spry, and his control of the offense was noted as he handed out six assists in 22 minutes to go with his eight points, four rebounds and one steal. I can’t imagine having him out of lineups knowing he’ll improve with every contest.
Kelly Olynyk has been a mystery and he showed up on the injury report late when he was elbowed in the eye during shootaround. Of course that means he broke his slump and scored 19 points on 7-of-10 shooting with three treys, two boards, two assists, one steal and one block in his 22 minutes. He’s a high-risk, good-upside pickup at this point with no real traction in fantasy leagues since returning from his serious ankle injury. The Celtics are just a half-game behind the Nets for the No. 8 slot and they’re relatively well-positioned to make the playoffs
THE BENEFITS OF LOW EXPECTATIONS
The Kings lucked into playing a Houston squad that seriously looked like they didn’t sleep the night before the game. DeMarcus Cousins bucked reports that he might only play home games by suiting up, posting a ridiculous 24 points with 21 rebounds, 10 assists, three steals and six blocks. Most of the guys that had a chance at fantasy value played at their ceilings, including Omri Casspi (18 points, seven boards, four assists, three steals, five turnovers), and Ray McCallum (14 points, 5-of-6 FGs, two threes, three rebounds, six assists, one steal).
Ben McLemore (14 points, 6-of-10 FGs, two threes, four rebounds, two assists, one steal, one block) and Jason Thompson (16 points, 10 boards, one steal) played at their ceilings, too. Sac has a league-best schedule and that will help each of these guys, but only McCallum looks like a must-own player in 12-team formats. You can build a case that any of the rest can get hot, but consistency is going to be an issue and if Rudy Gay (concussion) and Cousins happen to suit up in the same game down the road it kills the rest of the box score.
HARDEN SCORES 51 POINTS
I covered a lot of this in the Dose but 51 points – even against the Kings – deserves a second mention. James Harden got that and more with 16-of-25 makes (8-of-9 3PTs, 11-of-13 FTs), eight rebounds, six assists and three steals. The only thing that kept this from beating Chris Paul’s massive line were the seven turnovers, which was indicative of the sloppy game the Rockets played from the start.
Terrence Jones looks a bit out of shape but luckily the guys he beat up on were in even worse shape, as he blocked seven shots with 16 points, seven rebounds, two threes and a steal. He should be locked into lineups and Rockets fans entertaining (false) championship hopes need to hope he can play his way into shape over the next two weeks.
BUTLER BACK
The Bulls aren’t doing themselves any favors with the skeptics as they lost another game last night – this time on the road against a Bucks squad that could very well end up being their first round playoff opponent. They let Aaron Brooks (11 points, two threes, three boards, three assists, three steals, one block) get beat up by Michael Carter-Williams because they don’t like to double-team, but beyond that there wasn’t any big news.
Jimmy Butler reassumed the role of primary offensive threat with 25 points on 8-of-18 shooting, one trey, 8-of-8 FTs, seven boards, three assists, three steals and one block. I found it interesting but not surprising that Tom Thibodeau isn’t going to alter his practice plans for Derrick Rose’s return, speaking mostly to which guys he’ll be sparring with in practice as he works to get back on the floor. I think Rose should step into a secondary bench role when he returns, and perhaps Thibs isn’t going to blindly ram him into his old paradigm and old No. 1 role. Rose simply isn’t that guy anymore and this team is going to go as far as Jimmy and Pau Gasol (14 & 11) take them.
The former MVP could return ‘next week’ according to beat writer Sam Smith, and that would be bad news for Brooks’ value. Kirk Hinrich left last night’s game with a knee injury and he will be evaluated today. It’s doubtful the Bulls would step up Rose’s timetable to accommodate for that.
WE CAN DO IT
The Bucks got a much-needed shot in the arm in last night’s win over the Bulls, who could easily be their first round opponent in the playoffs. They got Michael Carter-Williams (21 points, 9-of-19 FGs, 10 boards, two assists, one steal) off the schnied and not a moment too soon, as he has been crowned as the cause of their recent losing ways and that’s not doing anybody any good in Milwaukee.
The box score carried no real surprises though Zaza Pachulia’s light four-point, 10-rebound night was noted since he can start to dim pretty quickly at times, and O.J. Mayo had a nice night with 13 points on 5-of-9 shooting, three treys, two boards, three assists and two steals in 27 minutes. Let’s see Mayo do it again before hopping blindly on that train. John Henson is a blocks and boards guy that owners may want to speculate on, and he turned up 11 points with five rebounds, one steal and three blocks in his customary 19 minutes off the bench.
AT LEAST ONE MORE CRACK AT IT
The Raptors pulled into a tie with the Bulls in the East after they beat the Wolves and Chicago lost to the Bucks. Whoever pulls ahead will get the three-seed and mostly likely the Bucks at No. 6, and given their lack of playoff experience it’s probably better to play them instead of the Wizards at No. 5 – though that’s debatable too I guess.
Kyle Lowry (back) is already doubtful for Friday’s game and that means Greivis Vasquez has at least one more crack at a good outing, which I’d say he’s going to get two out of every three chances. Last night he hit 5-of-6 shots (including four treys) for 14 points, four rebounds, two assists and one steal, and James Johnson racked up 13 points with four rebounds, two assists, one steal, two blocks and one trey in his 23 minutes. Johnson is basically a Hail Mary play for money counting stats and that’s it.
GOING HAM?
Watching Flip Saunders talk about injuries on camera the past few weeks he has looked like a guy that’s irritated with having to lie about tanking. Really irritated. He said after last night’s loss to the Raptors that Ricky Rubio (ankle) has wanted to play the last three games but the medical staff has not cleared him, and Kevin Martin (hamstring) was talking about a Friday return and I’m not believing it until it’s written in stone.
Gorgui Dieng missed last night’s game due to a concussion and that means he’s in shutdown territory, though I’m guessing the Wolves would like to get him back on the floor if they can. They’re two games behind New York for the No. 1 lottery slot and 1.5 games ahead of Philly at No. 3, so it might not matter that Dieng returns in terms of tanking.
I said on Twitter a week or two ago that I liked Nerlens Noel for Rookie of the Year because of his huge defensive numbers, but Andrew Wiggins (25 points, 8-of-20 FGs, 9-of-10 FTs, five boards, five assists, one steal, two blocks, 44 minutes, zero missed games) isn’t going to send me over a ledge if he wins it. He’s heating up at precisely the right time for owners with a top 60-100 returns (8/9 cat) over the last two weeks, and he hasn’t had great money counting stats yet so there’s some upside beyond that.
I feel like I’m getting some small consolation for my big FAAB play at Justin Hamilton in my NFBKC Championship entry. His stat line won’t be remembered with just 13 points on 6-of-8 shooting, two boards, two steals and one block, but he’s slowly ramping up his minutes and has late-round value in his last four games despite playing just 22.4 mpg. The Wolves are one of eight teams with four games next week, and as long as he doesn’t fall off a cliff he’ll be a late-round guy with big upside beyond that.
Chase Budinger kept his foot on the gas after being highlighted as a sleeper in the Fantasy Extra on Monday, scoring 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting (including two threes) with six rebounds, three assists and two steals in 38 minutes off the bench. He’s not going to disappear unless both Rubio and Martin return *and* he totally craps the bed in the 25-30 mpg he’ll get in a worst case scenario. Air Bud has been a fourth round play over the past two weeks and though he’s shooting over his head right now at a cool 50 percent in that span, he has all of the aforementioned schedule advantages and in a small sample size it’s not guaranteed that a regression comes fast.
HUGE WIN
The Mavs did themselves all sorts of favors last night with a road win over the Thunder. Not only does it put them four games ahead of the Thunder for the No. 7 slot in the West with just seven games to play, but they’re also far away (-3.0 GB) from the Spurs at No. 6. If they want to rest guys, they are in a textbook position to do so.
Monta Ellis (calf) will stubbornly refuse to take games off, and last night he got back on the floor on a 26-point night including four rebounds, five assists, four steals and an 8-of-9 mark from the foul line. Ellis, Tyson Chandler (14 & 10), and Dirk Nowitzki (18 points, 8-of-17 FGs, two threes, four boards, three assists) are all candidates for rest, but on the other hand the Mavs may decide that they need to get some chemistry going before the playoffs start.
TERRIBLE LOSS
In fairness to Scott Brooks I didn’t get to watch the Thunder’s loss to the Mavs from start to finish but the late-game discipline issues were pretty glaring. Rajon Rondo is hitting 36 percent of his foul shots and there were chances to put him on the foul line late, but Brooks opted against them and the last time cost them a two-for-one situation at the end of the game. The Thunder’s last possession was a mess.
Russell Westbrook’s game was off-kilter all night as he hit just 10-of-32 shots (2-of-11 3PTs, 9-of-11 FTs) for a 31-11-11 line with one steal and six turnovers in 44 minutes. The Thunder lose out on a chance to avoid the Warriors, and now they’ll have to fend off a Pelicans team that’s getting key guys back. Steven Adams dinged up his ankle at the end of the game and he’s the only piece of their defense that doesn’t suck.
On the bright side, Enes Kanter (30 and 16, one three, 9-of-13 FGs, 11-of-12 FTs) and Anthony Morrow (32 points, six threes) are going big for owners. At this rate, Dion Waiters (19 points, three treys, four assists) may actually be a voice of reason on offense with Westbrook chucking up all sorts of uninspired stuff, but I still can’t get behind Neon Dion in a standard league.
If Adams misses time then Mitch McGary (four points, nine boards, 15 minutes) will be worth a look as a late-round double-double guy.
FORM BLAZING SWORD
The Nuggets aren’t as exciting as they were in their first few games with Melvin Hunt, and now they’ve won just two of their last eight games. What owners are hoping for here is for the veterans to give way to the young guys, or some other roster shakeup that consolidates the team’s decentralized fantasy potential.
Wilson Chandler (two points, three boards, one assist, 25 minutes, 1-of-7 FGs) has been good enough to survive one bad game, but not much more than that. Usually his injury risk has already swallowed him up but with just two weeks to go he may be able to survive. Ditto for Randy Foye (five points, 2-of-9 FGs, one three, 28 minutes).
The upside guys are Kenneth Faried (19 points, 10 boards, one block) and Will Barton (13 points, seven rebounds, two assists, two steals, one three, 23 minutes). Faried can be a top-50 guy if he decides to make the rest of the year an energetic up-yours tour, and Barton has been a late-round value in a smaller bench role.
GOATBERT
The Jazz are a fun watch for me as a founding member of the Rudy Gobert bandwagon, at least in fantasy writing circles, and also because I have him on almost every fantasy squad of mine. He scored a career-high 20 points with 12 rebounds, one steal, two blocks and hit all seven of his field goal attempts. His only real fantasy blemish is his foul shooting and he hit just 6-of-11 shots from the stripe last night, but he has enough feel for the game at this moment that I’m confident he’ll get that cleaned up in the future. He’s an easy future All Star and anybody sleeping on his offensive growth does so at their own risk.
Dante Exum posted a random assist total (12) to go in his usually empty line (two points, one board, 29 minutes), and Derrick Favors (19 points, seven boards, three blocks) got back on the floor following a back injury.
HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
The Clippers are probably the most hated team in the league and last night’s game fit the blueprint, as Chris Kaman shoved Chris Paul to the ground after CP3 knocked him in the nads. And it was Paul who was Stephen Curry’s most recent victim the night before, only to make everybody forget that blemish in short order as he rattled off 41 points on 13-of-21 shooting with five treys, five boards, 17 assists, four steals and a perfect 10 makes from the stripe.
Blake Griffin continued his current top-15 pace with 24 points, seven rebounds, eight assists, one steal, one block and two treys, DeAndre Jordan went for 13 & 13 with a steal and block, and J.J. Redick knocked in 25 points with eight boards and five treys of his own. Only Matt Barnes was shut out with just six points, five boards and a block on the night.
Their win in Portland keeps them square in the mix for the No. 2 seed, and they could still fall a few slots if they’re not careful. In any event, they’ll be one of the more interesting playoff teams because Glen Davis, Hedo Turkoglu and maybe even Austin Rivers will actually get minutes.
HIT EM WHERE IT HURTS
The Blazers had found a nice little boost in Dorell Wright’s (17 minutes, six points, seven rebounds) recent play and given their dearth of talent there it’s the one spot they can’t really afford to take a hit. That’s exactly what happened when it was announced that Wright had broken the fourth metacarpal on his left non-shooting hand.
Similar injuries have cost 4-6 weeks but we don’t know what the timetable is for a return. Arron Afflalo (14 points, two threes, five boards, three assists, 33 minutes) played at his ceiling and that needs to be his floor for him to work out in standard leagues. If Wright is out of the picture, his minutes and touches become a tad bit more secure.
Though Nicolas Batum probably won’t have owners feeling safe at any point this season, the development works out well for him and last night he was on fire. Batum hit 7-of-11 shots (including five treys) with four rebounds, four assists and three steals, and he’ll need to be aggressive on offense for the Blazers to score with their opponents. He’s sitting on a month of third round value.
BIRDS OF PREY (CAW)
The Pelicans did all that sticking around about 2-3 weeks ago so when they finally did slide, they managed to keep themselves at arm’s distance. Now with three wins in a row against bad teams and the Thunder’s corresponding slide, they’re right back in the chase for the eight-seed at 1.5 games behind the OKC (and they own the tiebreaker).
Now they’re starting to get healthy, too. Ryan Anderson returned from an 18-game absence due to a knee injury and looked great, scoring 17 points on 5-of-11 shooting (2-of-4 3PTs, 5-of-6 FTs) with three rebounds and one assist in 22 minutes off the bench. Anthony Davis (20 points, seven boards, six assists, one steal, four blocks) was the only starter called upon to play more than 28 minutes in their easy win over the Lakers at the Staples Center.
They head to Sacramento on Friday and that’s about as friendly of an environment as one can find these days, and in the case of Anderson it’s his old home town and also home of the missing 3-point defense. The Pelicans are also one of just eight teams to have four games next week. Both he and Jrue Holiday should be owned with an eye on that week as a potential difference-maker in fantasy leagues.
ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT
The Lakers are a mess in general with guys playing that weren’t supposed to be playing, and last night some popular adds like Ryan Kelly (12 points, three assists, one three, 30 minutes) and Jabari Brown (six points, one three, one assist, 2-of-8 FGs, 30 minutes) didn’t get the job done. The big appeal here is the league-best schedule to wrap things up this year, and that gives both of these guys some wiggle room with owners.
Jordan Clarkson (18 points, 7-of-9 FGs, one three, seven rebounds, 10 assists) continues to put up top 30-40 numbers on a per-game basis and that’ll leave a mark on the opposition at this time of the year.
Wayne Ellington suffered a mild shoulder separation last night and if he misses any time you can bump up the rest of the backcourt, but the real question marks are surrounding Ed Davis (DNP-CD), Jordan Hill (10 points, seven boards, one block, 20 minutes) and Carlos Boozer (four points, three rebounds, two steals, 18 minutes). Davis in particular has voiced his displeasure about being benched for tanking purposes, and it’ll be a slippery situation with upside due to that favorable schedule if owners can get a beat on it.
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