Final Four betting guide – ESPN
After four of the first six games on the opening Thursday of the NCAA tournament were outright upsets (No. 14 UAB over No. 3 Iowa St.; No. 14 Georgia St. over No. 3 Baylor; Butler over Texas; and No. 11 UCLA over No. 6 SMU), favorites mostly continued to survive and advance. Underdogs, however, held their own against the spread but lead just 31-29 ATS heading into the weekend against my ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines. (Note: The game most open to debate is Oregon-Oklahoma State, which I graded as Oregon covering as a 1-point favorite, which was the consensus closing line in Vegas, while offshore was a consensus pick ’em, with a few books closing with Oklahoma State favored.) Anyway, there hasn’t been much edge to playing favorites or ‘dogs. In totals wagering, unders have a slightly better record at 32-26-2 (55.2 percent).
As always, we should look at matchups on a game-by-game basis, so what follows is our Final Four betting guide. I’ll give my take on the two matchups and also get the opinions of my fellow ESPN college basketball handicappers Andrew Lange (sportsmemo.com) and Geoff Kulesa (wunderdog.com). We’ll also share the power ratings from our CBB Vegas Rankings panel and get some systems and trends analysis from David Solar of Sports Insights. I’ll close with a look at some prop bets.
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 7 Michigan State Spartans
Westgate line: Duke minus-5; over/under 140
PickCenter: 53 percent picked Duke
Tuley: I have to say I’m impressed with Michigan State’s run to the Final Four. The respect goes back to its Big Ten title game against Wisconsin, when it took the Badgers to overtime. Instead of wilting after that defeat, the Spartans have stood tall and are this year’s Cinderella story. However, as much as I’ve tried to make a case for them to continue their storybook run, I’m afraid it’ll strike midnight on Cinde-Sparty. It’s the same way I felt last week when I tried to make a case for Gonzaga against Duke, but made the right call in passing.
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