The Numbers Game: Rest-of-Season NBA Schedules

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

In last week’s edition of ‘The Numbers Game’ we analyzed each team’s value to opponents since the All-Star break. The Jazz emerged as the toughest team to face on an overall basis, the Kings were the most lenient, and we determined, for instance, that the Bucks are the easiest team to face if you’re targeting steals. At the other end of the spectrum, the Hornets are the least likely team to allow steals to their opponents. You can read that column here.

We will expand upon that analysis this week, using each team’s remaining schedule to figure out how easy or hard their matchups are, with an emphasis on specific categories. Fantasy owners still grinding away at this late stage of the season are likely to be targeting specific categories, choosing between two similarly-scrubby free agents and poring over the schedule grid, so my aim is to inform those decisions and make them a bit easier.

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Below is a synopsis of all 30 teams’ remaining schedules. The ‘rating’ for each category and overall value is cumulative, not per-game, as I’m simply trying to determine the best teams/players for total value in the final stretch. Most teams play eight games but the Kings, Pelicans, Blazers, Lakers, Nets and Hornets each play nine more times. On the other hand, the Suns, 76ers, Grizzlies, Clippers, Hawks and Cavaliers have only seven games remaining.

The numbers for each team indicate the cumulative z-scores for their opponents in a given category. Excluding the ‘Total’ column, each category typically ranges from -5.0 to +5.0, with positive numbers indicating favorable matchups and vice versa. The Nets, for instance, have a +7.3 matchup rating for 3-pointers — that’s an outlier and it’s the highest positive matchup of any team in any category (which bodes well for Joe Johnson, Alan Anderson and others). The most intimidating matchup is the Grizzlies’ FG% at a brutal -7.5. Among their final seven opponents are the Jazz, Clippers, Pacers, Warriors and Wizards, all of whom rank in the bottom six for FG% allowed since the A.S. break. It’s an unforgiving slate for the Grizzlies. I’ll forego any further analysis this week, as the numbers are self-explanatory. There’s a table at the end of the column which combines all of the teams for easy comparison. Enjoy.

Atlanta Hawks – 7 games – Nets, Suns, Nets, Hornets, Wizards, Knicks & Bulls

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Hawks	1.9	0.4	3.1	-0.5	-2.1	-3.5	-0.6	-1.6	4.5	1.8

Boston Celtics – 8 games – Pacers, Bucks, Raptors, Pistons, Cavaliers, Cavaliers, Raptors & Bucks

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Celtics	-1.9	0.2	-1.6	4.2	0.9	2.7	0.6	2.8	-1.2	6.7

Brooklyn Nets – 9 games – Knicks, Raptors, Hawks, Trail Blazers, Hawks, Wizards, Bucks, Bulls & Magic

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Nets	1.3	7.3	0.1	3.9	2.8	-0.1	3.6	-0.4	-0.9	17.5

Charlotte Hornets – 9 games – Pacers, 76ers, Heat, Raptors, Hawks, Pistons, Rockets & Raptors

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Hornets	0.2	0.9	4.1	2.8	-0.8	3.0	-0.3	4.3	-4.0	10.1

Chicago Bulls – 8 games – Bucks, Pistons, Cavaliers, Magic, Heat, 76ers, Nets & Hawks

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Bulls	0.1	3.5	0.4	5.4	1.8	1.2	1.9	1.7	-5.2	10.9

Cleveland Cavaliers – 7 games – Heat, Bulls, Bucks, Celtics, Celtics, Pistons & Wizards

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Cavaliers	-2.1	-1.5	2.2	-1.1	-0.7	0.0	-1.8	-1.6	-1.4	-8.0

Dallas Mavericks – 8 games – Thunder, Rockets, Warriors, Suns, Nuggets, Lakers, Jazz & Trail Blazers

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Mavericks	-0.9	-2.8	-1.6	-2.1	2.5	-1.7	-3.3	-0.2	1.0	-9.1

Denver Nuggets – 8 games – Jazz, Spurs, Clippers, Lakers, Mavericks, Kings, Clippers & Warriors

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Nuggets	-1.4	-0.3	-3.7	-1.4	0.4	-4.6	-2.2	-1.2	-0.5	-14.9

Detroit Pistons – 8 games – Hornets, Bulls, Heat, Celtics, Pacers, Hornets, Cavaliers & Knicks

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Pistons	-1.7	-2.8	1.3	-3.4	-6.3	-1.3	-2.1	-0.5	5.6	-11.4

Golden State Warriors – 8 games – Suns, Mavericks, Spurs, Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Timberwolves, Grizzlies & Nuggets

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Warriors	0.8	-2.9	-0.2	-0.4	1.1	0.4	4.1	-0.9	0.6	2.4

Houston Rockets – 8 games – Kings, Mavericks, Thunder, Spurs, Spurs, Pelicans, Hornets & Jazz

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Rockets	-0.6	-1.2	-6.2	-3.9	2.1	-0.8	1.1	-2.9	2.4	-9.9

Indiana Pacers – 8 games – Celtics, Hornets, Heat, Knicks, Pistons, Thunder, Wizards & Grizzlies

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Pacers	-0.6	-0.4	-0.3	-0.4	-5.4	-1.0	-0.2	1.1	0.5	-6.8

L.A. Clippers – 7 games – Blazers, Nuggets, Lakers, Lakers, Grizzlies, Nuggets & Suns

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Clippers	0.7	-4.2	0.1	2.3	0.0	5.6	1.8	0.4	1.8	8.4

L.A. Lakers – 9 games – Pelicans, Blazers, Clippers, Clippers, Nuggets, Wolves, Mavericks, Kings & Kings

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Lakers	5.5	1.2	-1.2	4.2	0.6	2.8	5.2	-0.5	2.7	20.5

Memphis Grizzlies – 7 games – Thunder, Wizards, Pelicans, Jazz, Clippers, Warriors & Pacers

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Grizzlies	-4.5	-1.9	-4.0	-6.3	-2.4	-4.2	-7.5	0.7	2.3	-27.7

Miami Heat – 8 games – Cavaliers, Pistons, Pacers, Hornets, Bulls, Raptors, Magic & 76ers

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Heat	-1.3	-1.3	2.2	-0.6	-5.7	2.4	-0.7	3.4	2.9	1.1

Milwaukee Bucks – 8 games – Bulls, Celtics, Magic, Cavs, Knicks, Nets, 76ers & Celtics

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Bucks	1.8	-1.1	5.4	-0.6	-2.2	0.8	1.3	-0.3	0.3	5.5

Minnesota Timberwolves – 8 games – Raptors, Magic, Kings, Blazers, Lakers, Warriors, Pelicans & Thunder

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Wolves	4.1	2.4	-5.1	2.9	1.1	1.6	3.9	-0.5	3.8	14.2

New Orleans Pelicans – 9 games – Lakers, Kings, Blazers, Warriors, Grizzlies, Suns, Rockets, Wolves & Spurs

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Pelicans	2.4	-0.2	-2.0	0.7	3.8	-1.5	2.3	-1.1	0.9	5.4

New York Knicks – 8 games – Nets, Wizards, 76ers, Pacers, Bucks, Magic, Hawks & Pistons

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Knicks	0.2	4.9	3.1	2.7	0.4	1.3	-0.9	5.1	-3.7	13.2

Oklahoma City Thunder – 8 games – Mavs, Grizzlies, Rockets, Spurs, Kings, Pacers, Trail Blazers & Wolves

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Thunder	2.1	1.5	0.5	-0.7	2.5	0.8	2.9	-0.7	0.1	9.0

Orlando Magic – 8 games – Spurs, Wolves, Bucks, Bulls, Raptors, Knicks, Heat & Nets

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Magic	2.9	2.0	0.5	2.2	3.8	-1.5	3.4	-3.7	0.2	9.8

Philadelphia 76ers – 7 games – Wizards, Hornets, Knicks, Wizards, Bulls, Bucks & Heat

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
76ers	-1.8	1.6	-1.0	-2.0	-0.4	-2.8	-1.9	-4.1	1.5	-10.9

Phoenix Suns – 7 games – Warriors, Jazz, Hawks, Mavs, Pelicans, Spurs & Clippers

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Suns	-4.3	-1.4	-2.6	-3.9	0.4	-4.5	-2.5	-0.2	-2.3	-21.3

Portland Trail Blazers – 9 games – Clippers, Lakers, Pelicans, Nets, Wolves, Warriors, Jazz, Thunder & Mavs

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Blazers	-0.6	-0.8	-2.4	-1.2	0.3	-3.9	-2.0	-1.6	1.5	-10.6

Sacramento Kings – 9 games – Rockets, Pelicans, Jazz, Wolves, Jazz, Thunder, Nuggets, Lakers & Lakers

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Kings	-3.8	-4.4	-4.4	-3.1	3.3	2.9	-3.9	-4.3	2.6	-15.2

San Antonio Spurs – 8 games – Magic, Nuggets, Warriors, Thunder, Rockets, Rockets, Suns & Pelicans

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Spurs	2.6	1.2	2.6	-1.9	2.4	0.7	-1.9	1.7	-2.8	4.6

Toronto Raptors – 8 games – Wolves, Nets, Celtics, Hornets, Magic, Heat, Celtics & Hornets

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Raptors	-0.5	0.0	-1.1	0.2	0.3	-0.6	-0.1	-1.7	-1.2	-4.8

Utah Jazz – 8 games – Nuggets, Suns, Kings, Kings, Grizzlies, Blazers, Mavs & Rockets

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Jazz	4.1	2.1	-0.4	2.5	4.7	5.3	4.5	-0.9	-0.8	21.0

Washington Wizards – 8 games – 76ers, Knicks, Grizzlies, 76ers, Nets, Hawks, Pacers & Cavs

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Wizards	4.7	1.8	-12.1	0.3	9.0	-0.6	4.9	-7.6	11.0	11.3

Finally, here is the whole lot of them compiled into one table.

	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FT%	TO	TOTAL
Hawks	1.9	0.4	3.1	-0.5	-2.1	-3.5	-0.6	-1.6	4.5	1.8
Celtics	-1.9	0.2	-1.6	4.2	0.9	2.7	0.6	2.8	-1.2	6.7
Nets	1.3	7.3	0.1	3.9	2.8	-0.1	3.6	-0.4	-0.9	17.5
Hornets	0.2	0.9	4.1	2.8	-0.8	3.0	-0.3	4.3	-4.0	10.1
Bulls	0.1	3.5	0.4	5.4	1.8	1.2	1.9	1.7	-5.2	10.9
Cavaliers	-2.1	-1.5	2.2	-1.1	-0.7	0.0	-1.8	-1.6	-1.4	-8.0
Mavericks	-0.9	-2.8	-1.6	-2.1	2.5	-1.7	-3.3	-0.2	1.0	-9.1
Nuggets	-1.4	-0.3	-3.7	-1.4	0.4	-4.6	-2.2	-1.2	-0.5	-14.9
Pistons	-1.7	-2.8	1.3	-3.4	-6.3	-1.3	-2.1	-0.5	5.6	-11.4
Warriors	0.8	-2.9	-0.2	-0.4	1.1	0.4	4.1	-0.9	0.6	2.4
Rockets	-0.6	-1.2	-6.2	-3.9	2.1	-0.8	1.1	-2.9	2.4	-9.9
Pacers	-0.6	-0.4	-0.3	-0.4	-5.4	-1.0	-0.2	1.1	0.5	-6.8
Clippers	0.7	-4.2	0.1	2.3	0.0	5.6	1.8	0.4	1.8	8.4
Lakers	5.5	1.2	-1.2	4.2	0.6	2.8	5.2	-0.5	2.7	20.5
Grizzlies	-4.5	-1.9	-4.0	-6.3	-2.4	-4.2	-7.5	0.7	2.3	-27.7
Heat	-1.3	-1.3	2.2	-0.6	-5.7	2.4	-0.7	3.4	2.9	1.1
Bucks	1.8	-1.1	5.4	-0.6	-2.2	0.8	1.3	-0.3	0.3	5.5
Wolves	4.1	2.4	-5.1	2.9	1.1	1.6	3.9	-0.5	3.8	14.2
Pelicans	2.4	-0.2	-2.0	0.7	3.8	-1.5	2.3	-1.1	0.9	5.4
Knicks	0.2	4.9	3.1	2.7	0.4	1.3	-0.9	5.1	-3.7	13.2
Thunder	2.1	1.5	0.5	-0.7	2.5	0.8	2.9	-0.7	0.1	9.0
Magic	2.9	2.0	0.5	2.2	3.8	-1.5	3.4	-3.7	0.2	9.8
76ers	-1.8	1.6	-1.0	-2.0	-0.4	-2.8	-1.9	-4.1	1.5	-10.9
Suns	-4.3	-1.4	-2.6	-3.9	0.4	-4.5	-2.5	-0.2	-2.3	-21.3
Blazers	-0.6	-0.8	-2.4	-1.2	0.3	-3.9	-2.0	-1.6	1.5	-10.6
Kings	-3.8	-4.4	-4.4	-3.1	3.3	2.9	-3.9	-4.3	2.6	-15.2
Spurs	2.6	1.2	2.6	-1.9	2.4	0.7	-1.9	1.7	-2.8	4.6
Raptors	-0.5	0.0	-1.1	0.2	0.3	-0.6	-0.1	-1.7	-1.2	-4.8
Jazz	4.1	2.1	-0.4	2.5	4.7	5.3	4.5	-0.9	-0.8	21.0
Wizards	4.7	1.8	-12.1	0.3	9.0	-0.6	4.9	-7.6	11.0	11.3