Opening Line: Alabama -17
Over/Under: 47.5
Time: 3:30 PM EST Saturday November 26, 2016
Auburn Tigers (8-3) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0)
The Iron Bowl this season pits undefeated at top-ranked Alabama hosting Auburn. The Crimson Tide have already booked their ticked to the SEC title game and if they win this game they will be in the BCS playoff even with a loss in the conference championship. Their have a dominating defense that ranks 2nd in the nation in opponents’ ppg and in every game, but one this season they have won by double-digits.
Auburn is out of the SEC and BCS race, but by knocking off Bama in their house they will really move up in the rankings and improve the bowl they play in. The Tigers have the nation’s 5th ranked rushing attack, but will face a Tide team that has the best run defense in the country.
In last season’s Iron Bowl at Auburn the Crimson Tide beat the Tigers 29-13.
This season Auburn is 8-3 ATS with an O/U record of 4-7 and Alabama is 8-3 ATS with an O/U record of 5-6.
In their last games Auburn crushed Alabama A&M 55-0 and Alabama beat Chattanooga 31-3.
The Tigers are led by their rushing attack with two backs that have at least 823 rushing yards. Kamryn Pettway (1,106 yards 7 TD) is the lead rusher and missed the Alabama A&M game with an injury, but it was not a major one and he is expected to go in this game. Kerryon Johnson (823 11 TD) rushed for over 100 yards in the Alabama A&M game. Auburn only ranks 105th in the nation in passing yards per game and while QB Sean White missed the last game he is expected to play in this big game.
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Alabama ranks 1st in the nation in run defense and a solid 13th in pass defense.
The Tide are not all about defense, as their offense is solid and ranks 13th in the nation in ppg. Their duel threat QB in Jalen Hurts is a Heisman candidate and he is also the team’s 2nd leading rusher. While the strength of Alabama is the rushing offense Hurts has good numbers through the air and has ArDarius Stewart and Calvin Ridley, who each have at least 600 receiving yards. Hurts and Damien Harris (853 yards 2 TD) have combined for 1.656 yards and 13 TD on the season and if they run the ball well the Tide will not lose.
Auburn’s defense is stronger against the run than the pass ranking 17th in the nation against the run and 54th against the pass.
Auburn at Alabama Betting Trends
- Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and in their last 5 road games the Under record is 4-1.
- Alabama is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games, and in their last 6 home games the Under record is 5-1.
- Alabama is 4-1 ATS in the last five games against Auburn.
- In the last 5 games between these SEC rivals the Over record is 4-1.
Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide Free Pick
We have Alabama’s No. 2 and the No. 7 ranked scoring defenses in the nation kicking off at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday. The Crimson Tide has allowed an impressive 11 points per game overall this season and an even better 6 points per game at home. Only WKU (10) and Texas A&M (14) were able to hit double digits. The Tigers defense while not as dominant as the Tides has been outstanding for most of the season holding all but two opponents to 16 or fewer points this season including the Razorbacks who were held to three points which were 27 fewer than Alabama allowed! This should be all about defense and I expect a final score similar to how both of these clubs played LSU.
Take the UNDER 47
Guys, if you’re looking for more free winning picks against the spread check out SportsBettingStats.com . Special thanks to Rich Crew for his O/U prediction on this game. You can get his analysis and free game picks from Rich and the rest of the SBS team by clicking on the link above.
