Opening Line: Falcons -2.5
Over/Under: 52.5
Time: 4:25 PM EST Sunday October 30, 2016 on FOX
Green Bay Packers (4-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-3)
The Packers are coming off a win over a one-win Bears team, but their offense is still not right. Aaron Rodgers has not looked himself this season and Green Bay only ranks 20th in the league in passing yards per game and 19th in rushing yards per game. He will have to play well for the next several games, especially since lead RB Eddie Lacy is on IR with an ankle injury.
After winning four in a row the Falcons have lost two straight where their defense has really struggled. Matt Ryan leads the league in passing yards and Atlanta finally has a legit rushing attack, but can their D hold up facing Rodgers and company?
In their last games the Packers beat the Chicago Bears 26-10 and the Falcons lost to the San Diego Chargers 33-30 in OT.
On the season the Packers are 3-2-1 ATS with an O/U record of 2-4 and the Falcons are 5-2 ATS with an O/U record of 6-1.
Rodgers did pass for 326 yards in the win over Chicago, but he also had 56 attempts. WR’s Davante Adams and Randall Cobb had big games against the Bears and Ty Montgomery has 20 catches and 164 receiving yards in the last two games. Montgomery is also the emergency RB with Lacy and James Starks out and he rushed for 60 yards in the game against the Bears. Look for the recently signed Knile Davis to shoulder more of the workload in the backfield now that he has had another week to get comfortable with the playbook.
The Atlanta defense is not a good one ranking 27th in the league giving up an average of 28.4 ppg. In their loss to the Chargers they played well against the run, but gave up 348 passing yards. Atlanta’s pass defense ranks 2nd to last in the league.
Ryan passed for 273 yards with one TD and one INT in the loss to the Chargers and while he leads the league in passing yards his main target in Julio Jones, who had 174 yards in the San Diego game, leads the league in receiving yards. RB
Atlanta’s Tevin Coleman lead the team with 60 rushing yards in the loss to the Chargers, but he is likely out for this game with a hamstring injury. That is a big loss, as he has been solid as of late while the team’s leading rusher in Devonta Freeman has failed to average over four yards per carry in his last two games. The Falcons’ offense will be facing a Green Bay defense, which ranks 1st against the run and 9th against the pass.
These teams have not met since the 2014 season where the Packers beat the Falcons 43-37 in a shootout.
Green Bay at Atlanta Betting Trends
- The Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games, 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they have an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games, and they have an Over record of 6-1 in their last 7 games.
- The road team has covered the spread in the last four games between these teams.
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons Free Pick
The Packers haven’t played a road game since Week 2 and in the two they did play they were not only out-yarded but were held to fewer than 300 total yards of offense in both. Offense has been a problem for Green Bay all season and while they have surpassed 400 yards in two of their last three games there were factors that contributed to that. The Falcons will easily be the best offense that the Packers have faced this season averaging 6.8 yards per play and to lay less than a field goal at home sure seems like good value to me.
Take the Atlanta Falcons -2.5
Free Pick Provided by (Rich Crew ) at Sportsbettingstats.com
