Opening Line: Packers -4
Time: 4:25 PM EST Sunday October 16, 2016 on FOX
Dallas Cowboys (4-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (3-1)
The Packers trail the surprising 5-0 Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North and they host a dangerous Dallas team in Lambeau this Sunday. This is not the Green Bay team we are used to seeing, as they are led by their defense and rushing offense while their passing offense only ranks 27th in the league in passing yards per game.
The Cowboys are red-hot winners of four straight and they are the top rushing team in the NFL and their defense ranks 8th in opponents points allowed. While Dallas is winning most of the press lately is at the QB position, as rookie Dak Prescott has been playing well, but Tony Romo should be coming back soon. Dallas has not allowed more than 17 points in each of their last three games.
In their last games the Cowboys beat the Cincinnati Bengals 28-14 and the Packers beat the New York Giants 23-17.
On the season the Cowboys are 4-1 ATS with an O/U record of 2-3 and the Packers are 2-1-1 ATS with an O/U record of 2-2.
Prescott has been solid under center for the Cowboys on the young season and while he has not put up big numbers and only has four TD he has not been picked off. He has a solid WR corps and Jason Witten and they will face off against a Green Bay pass defense that ranks 10th in the league.
The big match up in this game is Dallas rookie RB Ezekiel Elliot, who leads the league in rushing yards, against a Green Bay run defense that is the top ranked unit in the NFL. Elliot has rushed for over 130 yards in each of his last three games and is averaging five yards per carry.
Aaron Rodgers is not the same Rodgers that has been on the field in the last several seasons, as he is averaging less than 210 passing yards per game. Still, he has the targets and has nine TD and only four INT even though two came in the win over the Giants. However, he only ranks 30th among QB’s in completion percentage.
Eddie Lacy has been getting it going in the last couple of games where he has totaled 184 rushing yards and has averaged over six yards per carry. He left the Giants’ game in the 3rd quarter with an ankle injury, but he should go in this big NFC match up.
Dallas has not been giving up a lot of points and while their run defense ranks a decent 12th in the league they only rank 22nd in the league against the pass, which is a concern facing Rodgers in his house.
Dallas at Green Bay Betting Trends
- The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games, and they have an Under record of 6-1 in their last 7 road games.
- The Packers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss, and they have an Under record of 7-1 in their last 8 home games.
- The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Cowboys.
- The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against the Cowboys.
- In the last 5 games between these teams in Green Bay the Under record is 4-1.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers Free Pick
The Cowboys looked impressive knocking off the Bengals at home last week and while we don’t think they are as dominate as they looked last week, this is a real solid club. Their defense has played better than expected with a really solid 19.5 yards per point and they’ll face a club whose offense hasn’t looked anywhere near elite this season. What Green Bay has been elite at is stopping the run allowing a miniscule 2.0 per rush. That in our opinion will be enough to lower the offensive efficiency of Dallas and keep this game in the lower range.
Take the UNDER 47.5