Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Opening Line: LSU -3
Over/Under: 41
Time: 12 PM EST Saturday October 8, 2016 on ESPN
LSU Tigers (3-2) vs. Florida Gators (4-1)
LSU won their first game without the fired Les Miles on the sidelines in their last game and they are a three-point road favorite in this big rivalry game. Florida got over their first loss of the season with a win over Vanderbilt in their last game, but they did not look good in doing so.
LSU RB Leonard Fournette came into this season with Heisman hopes and while he does have 386 rushing yards in in three games he missed the last one and is a question mark this Saturday.
LSU crushed Missouri at home in their last game easily covering as a 12-point favorite with the total going Under.
In their last game Florida beat Vanderbilt on the road 13-6, but failed to cover as a 12-point favorite with the total going Under.
This season LSU is 1-4 ATS with an O/U record of 0-5 and Florida is 4-1 ATS with an O/U record of 2-3.
Last season at LSU the Tigers beat the Gators 35-28.
While Fournette may not play in this game due to an injury the Tigers still have lead rusher Derrius Guice, who rushed for 163 yards in the win over Missouri. In the two games that Fournette has not played this season Guice has stepped up, big time, combining to rush for over 310 yards. The running game is key for the Tigers, as they only rank 116th in the nation in passing yards per game.
Florida ranks 11th in the nation in run defense and that run D will really be tested in this SEC match up.
While Florida played pretty good defense and forced three turnovers in their win over Vanderbilt they only racked up a total of 236 yards. They were without starting QB Luke Del Rio, who has missed the last two games and is listed as questionable for this one. Austin Appleby will get the start if he cannot go. The Gators have a rushing attack that has three players that have at least 194 rushing yards on the season.
LSU ranks a solid 19th in the nation defending the run, but only 52nd defending the pass.
Betting Trends
- LSU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and they have an Under record of 5-0 in their last 5 games.
- Florida is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games, and they have an Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 home games.
- LSU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Florida.
- The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games between these teams.
LSU Tigers at Florida Gators Free Pick
LSU came up big in Ed Orgeron’s debut as interim coach trouncing Mizz 42-7 and there is no reason to think that they won’t carry the stronger play to Gainesville this Saturday. The Gators will be a good test for their running attack, but after rolling up 418 yards on the ground last week against a fellow SEC team it would be logical to believe that the Tigers will win this battle. If that’s the case Florida will be in big trouble trying to trade punches against a defense that has held every opponent this year to 20 or fewer points.
Take the LSU Tigers -3
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