Opening Line: Notre Dame -7.5
Time: 7:30 PM EST Saturday September 17, 2016 on NBC
Michigan State Spartans (1-0) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-1)
Notre Dame came into the season ranked in the top 10 and with National Title hopes, which were hurt with their upset loss to Texas in their first game. However, they rebounded with an easy win last week and can move up in the rankings with a win over a ranked Michigan State team.
Michigan State is in the top 25 and they won their season opener, but it was not an impressive win only beating Furman by 14-points. MSU is a 7.5-point road underdog facing a Notre Dame squad they have not met since the 2013 season.
Notre Dame easily beat Nevada in their last game 39-10 and they covered as a 27.5-point favorite.
Michigan State beat Furman in their season opener 28-13, but did not come close to covering the spread as a 37.5-point favorite.
QB DeShone Kizer leads the Notre Dame offense and he has seven TD and only one pick this season and is also the team’s 3rd leading rusher. He is joined in the backfield by two RB’s that have at least 115 rushing yards and John Adams, who leads the team in rushing yards, is averaging over seven yards per carry. Notre Dame also has a solid WR corps led by Equanimeous St. Brown and they will be going up against a solid MSU secondary. Kizer is a duel-threat QB and MSU has to keep him in the backfield and not let him move the chains with his legs.
Michigan State does not have a great offense, but they are strong on the defensive side if the ball. However, that D will be tested in this game.
This season Michigan State is 0-1 ATS with an O/U record of 0-1 and Notre Dame is 1-1 ATS with an O/U record of 1-1.
MSU QB Tyler O’Connor was decent in the win over Furman, but he did throw one pick and it was only his 2nd career start. One key to the Spartans winning in South Bend will be the play of RB LJ Scott. He rushed for o105 yards averaging 5.3 yards per carry against Furman. Michigan State will look to establish the run early and while Notre Dame held Nevada to 99 rushing yards with an average of only 3.3 yards per carry they gave up 237 yards on the ground in the loss to Texas.
- Michigan State is 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 road games, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, and in their last 6 games they have an Under record of 5-1.
- Notre Dame is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams from the Big Ten, and they have an Over record of 7-3 in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Michigan is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games at Notre Dame.
Michigan State at Notre Dame Free Pick
The lines maker was just itching to get public money on Michigan State listing the Fighting Irish as a touchdown plus a hook favorite. The money has come in on the Spartans big time, but the line hasn’t budged signalling that the right side of the line to be on for this game is on the home side. Michigan State is rested and has had an extra game tape to go over so you’d think that would be a solid angle to play here. We don’t. The Spartans are a team that returned just four starters to their offense and real game action is what they need so we take that as a negative. We don’t see them keeping up with Notre Dame’s offense in this game.
Take the Notre Dame Fighting Irish -7.5
Special thanks to the gang at SportsBettingStats.com for their analysis on this game. You can get more expert picks from the NCAA football board for free by visiting their College Football Section