Pitcher Shuffle Up: Where does Johnny Cueto go from here?
Today we tackle the big one, the elusive one, the erratic one, those maddening starting pitchers…
The idea is 5×5 value for rest of season. What’s happened to this point is merely an audition. I didn’t rank anyone on the DL, or anyone in the minors. Everyone seems to be more optimistic on injury returnees and hot prospects than I am.
The prices are unscientific in nature, and players at the same price are considered even. I’m just looking for a way to show the pockets of value as I see them. I don’t look at old prices when I construct these — it’s all from scratch. I don’t even see the point of looking back there; live in the present, look to the future.
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I welcome your respectful disagreement. Obviously you will feel passionate about what you don’t agree with, that’s why we have a game. The discussion can be deep and illuminating if you want it to be.
And remember the golden rule — a player doesn’t gain value because you like him, nor does he lose value because you don’t like him.
I reserve the right to make changes in this list during the first 24 hours. Win the debate, win the rank.
If I missed someone, let me know. I’m on Twitter, @scott_pianowski.
$31 Max Scherzer
$31 Madison Bumgarner
$28 Stephen Strasburg
$27 Jose Fernandez
$26 Jake Arrieta
$25 Jacob deGrom
$24 Carlos Carrasco
$23 Chris Sale
$23 Noah Syndergaard
$22 Gerrit Cole
$21 Cole Hamels
$21 Corey Kluber
$21 David Price
$21 Jon Lester
$20 Yu Darvish
$19 Carlos Martinez
$17 Kyle Hendricks
$17 Jose Quintana
$16 Julio Teheran
$16 Adam Wainwright
$16 Johnny Cueto
$16 Justin Verlander
$16 Danny Salazar
$15 Rich Hill
$15 Felix Hernandez
$15 Dallas Keuchel
$14 Michael Wacha
$14 *Aaron Sanchez
Is it worth cutting up first and second-half splits for pitchers? I can see the point of why it might not make sense universally, but I’ll certainly consider them on a case-by-case basis. And as our buddy Michael Salfino outlined last week, Cueto has a history of stumbling to the finish line, something that intuitively makes sense when you consider Cueto’s body type.
Verlander’s comeback is an underreported story. If you cut up the pitcher stats for the last calendar year, he’s actually fifth in pitcher fWAR, ahead of plenty of big names (Strasburg, Syndergaard, Cueto, Kluber, Scherzer, Sale, deGrom). Verlander’s velocity is up a tick this year, and he’s been far more effective with his slider.
If I knew Sanchez would stick in the rotation, he’d certainly be higher. I don’t think the Jays even know what to do here. Trust me, I love him as much as you do.
Who is Hernandez at this stage of his career? The fastball has pushed all the way down to 90.2 mph. The strikeout rate is under seven, the walk rate up to 3.45. I realize he’s just 30, but given that he made his debut in 2005, there’s a ton of mileage on the arm, elbow and body. I don’t have any shares, and I’m not seeking them out. Let’s be careful here.
$14 Matt Shoemaker
$14 Kenta Maeda
$13 J.A. Happ
$13 Michael Fulmer
$13 John Lackey
$12 Chris Archer
$12 Junior Guerra
$12 Tanner Roark
$12 Lance McCullers
$12 Hisashi Iwakuma
$12 Michael Pineda
$12 Trevor Bauer
$11 Matt Moore
$11 Danny Duffy
$11 Jonathan Gray
$11 Chris Tillman
$11 Jerad Eickhoff
$11 Mike Leake
Put Archer in the NL and we’re talking about a healthy bump to the mid-to-high teens. But if he’s stuck in the AL East, we have to deal with the current situation, all those strikeouts but all those crooked innings . . . McCullers is also racking up strikeouts by the boatload, but his WHIP keeps him in modest territory . . . Fullmer would be 2-4 bucks higher if a likely shutdown wasn’t looming over him . . . Pineda’s been pretty good since the calendar flipped to June: 3.30 ERA over 60 IP, with 76 K against 16 BB. The league is hitting just .209 on him since that point.
$10 Brandon McCarthy
$10 Anthony DeSclafani
$10 Vincent Velasquez
$10 Drew Pomeranz
$10 Josh Tomlin
$10 Masahiro Tanaka
$10 Jason Hammel
$9 Zach Davies
$9 Tyler Skaggs
$9 Collin McHugh
$8 Bud Norris
$8 Rick Porcello
$8 Marco Estrada
$8 Sonny Gray
$7 Adam Conley
$7 Jeremy Hellickson
$7 Steven Wright
$7 Jake Odorizzi
$7 Steven Matz
$7 Jeff Samardzija
$7 Aaron Nola
I’ve always suspected that knuckleballers might be especially volatile during the summer heat wave, and it sounds like that’s part of the Wright slump. In a 10 or 12-team mixer, I want a far better floor; I dropped him in the Yahoo F&F League last week . . . Look past Norris’s ERA in Los Angeles and accept a passable line: 1.19 WHIP, 7 BB, 32 K in 28.2 innings. He’s at least worth consideration in the preferred streamer list . . . Hammel has the same second-half baggage that Cueto does, though it might be a lot harder to find an interested trade partner. Sell the winning opportunities the Cubs present.
$6 Hector Santiago
$6 Ervin Santana
$6 Scott Kazmir
$6 Jaime Garcia
$5 Dylan Bundy
$5 Kendall Graveman
$5 Robbie Ray
$5 Sean Manaea
$5 Doug Fister
$5 James Paxton
$4 Kyle Gibson
$4 Blake Snell
$4 Kevin Gausman
$4 Yordano Ventura
$4 Bartolo Colon
$3 Tom Koehler
$3 Jameson Taillon
$3 Dan Straily
$3 Andrew Cashner
$3 Mike Fiers
$3 Zach Eflin
$3 Archie Bradley
$3 Gio Gonzalez
$3 Marcus Stroman
$3 C.C. Sabathia
$3 Drew Smyly
The lesson from Gray and Stroman — I don’t trust shorter pitchers. Maybe some of them can contort their bodies and shorten the stride length, but I’ll still bet against it as a general rule of thumb . . . Ray’s strikeout rate is zesty enough to put him on the sleeper list for next year. Sure, there’s plenty to iron out, but he can certainly miss bats. Next up: more strikes, working deeper in games . . . I’m not going to consider Cashner until someone has the good sense to consider him as a reliever. Good luck, Miami . . . Garcia’s numbers don’t fall apart in the second half, but they tend to get a little worse, and he’s also someone who carries a durability concern tag . . . Bradley is a lot like Ray, a power arm who could be one tweak or pitch adjustment away from an interesting breakout. No, you can’t trust him for the balance of this year, but he’s a perfect late-round lottery ticket to consider for the cheap rounds of 2017. The pedigree is also nice; Bradley was the seventh overall pick in the 2011 class.
$2 Tyler Anderson
$2 Jake Peavy
$2 Lucas Harrell
$2 Mike Foltynewicz
$2 Ian Kennedy
$2 AJ Griffin
$2 Logan Verrett
$2 Jimmy Nelson
$2 Francisco Liriano
$2 James Shields
$1 Miguel Gonzalez
$1 Wade Miley
$1 R.A. Dickey
$0 Jorge de la Rosa
$0 Edinson Volquez
$0 Jered Weaver
$0 Adam Morgan
$0 Matt Cain
-$1 Tyler Chatwood
-$1 Brandon Finnegan
-$1 Jon Niese
-$1 Ubaldo Jimenez
-$1 Tyler Duffey
-$1 Martin Perez
-$2 Kyle Lohse
-$2 Ricky Nolasco
-$2 Matt Wisler
-$2 Patrick Corbin
-$5 Mike Pelfrey
-$5 Tim Lincecum
Look at that rally for Shields, all those pretty 1s and 2s. Alas, it still adds up to a 4.68 ERA for the season, and we know he’s going to allow a lot of homers, even when he’s going good. I’m not going to try to be a hero here; if my opponent beats me with Shields in his lineup, good for him. Maybe Shields can pitch to his 2015 ratios (3.91/1.33), but those aren’t numbers I deem acceptable in a mixer.
