Here we are, on the precipice of the final major of 2016. It doesn’t seem real. It seems like just yesterday that Jordan Spieth was melting into Rae’s Creek at Augusta National. It nearly was just yesterday that Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson were dueling for the claret jug in Scotland.

As is true of every major, there is a ton at stake this week at the PGA Championship: Ryder Cup spots, world rankings points, gobs of history. If the first three majors of 2016 are any indication, we should get another great one this week.

The thing about great tournaments, though, is that they are incredibly difficult to predict. As the talent pool deepens and the window of opportunity widens (see: The Open), I’m left more and more at a loss for how to figure these tournaments out. It’s not like 2001 when you could just say, “Tiger will win by 50” and it actually happened.

However, I decided to take a stab at some things I think will happen at the PGA Championship this week. Here are nine predictions sure to come to fruition at Baltusrol.

1. Heat will be a big factor in determining the winner. Between all of Jason Day’s ailments and Phil Mickelson’s hilarious views on anything weather-related, it feels like the heat in New Jersey will somehow determine our winner at Baltusrol. Here are some of Mickelson’s theories.

Free-swinging long-driving weather that favors a scorer? Smells like a Rory McIlroy winner to me (more on that in a minute).

2. Who should you fade? Speaking of Mickelson! I’m all the way out on him this week. He has history on his side (he won here in 2005), but he has age working against him. It would be difficult for anyone, much less a 46-year-old to bounce back from the emotional and physical toll that Open Championship took on him two weeks ago. I’m not sure if he’ll miss his third major cut of the year, but I don’t think he’ll be a primary factor in who wins this week.

3. The winner will be in the top five in the field in strokes gained off the tee. Everyone continues to think putting wins majors. It doesn’t. You win majors from tee to green, which is why I’m picking who I’m picking (more on that in a minute).

4. Tony Finau will finish higher than Jordan Spieth. Come at me. Finau has three top 20s in four major championships including a T10 at last year’s PGA Championship. He’s feasting off the tee (312-yard average right now) and learning how to stay patient in majors. I love him at 100-1 this week.

5. The tournament will swing wildly on the last two holes. Hang on, folks, because this year’s PGA Championship will hinge on the back-to-back par 5s to end the back nine on Saturday and Sunday. Can you imagine Dustin Johnson or Rory McIlroy coming to those two holes needing to go eagle-birdie for the win? Tiger Woods finished birdie-birdie on those two in 2005 but fell two shots shy of Phil Mickelson who finished up after him. There will be drama.

6. The 2005 winning score will get doubled up. Mickelson won at 4 under in 2005. The winning score this week will be 8 under or better. I’m predicting 9 under.

7. Dustin Johnson will touch off an epic major season with another top 10. Johnson is one top 10 from scoring four in four majors this year. That’s mighty impressive for somebody whose reputation coming into this season was “can’t get it done in a major.”

8. Jim Furyk will have a great PGA Championship. He’s played quite well so far since coming back from his injury. Top five at Oakmont, and he has two top fives in the last three years at PGA Championships. Just a gut feeling, but Furyk seems like he’s going to have another big week (and probably play himself onto the Ryder Cup team).

9. Rory McIlroy will win. Book it. Three PGA Championships in five years — 2012, 2014 and now 2016. He will join Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods and Bobby Jones as the only golfers with five majors before turning 30. He’s 27. On to the 2017 Masters.