Did Red Wings overpay Danny DeKeyser with 6-year deal?
In the NHL, there’s usually a trade-off between average annual value of a contract vs. term on free-agent contracts. The shorter the term, the higher the AAV; the longer the term, the lower the AAV.
Again, in theory.
The Detroit Red Wings signed 26-year-old defenseman Danny DeKeyser to a six-year, $30-million deal on Tuesday that carries a $5 million cap hit. That makes him the 11th highest-paid defenseman between the ages of 25-27, making slightly less than Torey Krug of the Boston Bruins (25, $5.25M AAV) and slightly more than T.J Brodie of the Calgary Flames (26, $4.65M AAV).
Did the Red Wings overpay here?
The Detroit Free Press spelled it out here before the signing, with comments from GM Ken Holland:
DeKeyser, 26, has established himself as a top-four regular since being signed out of university in the spring of 2013. With good defensemen at a premium, it makes sense to get him signed to a longer-term deal now, rather than give him the potential leverage of being an unrestricted free agent next summer. Arbitration rulings cannot eat into a player’s UFA status, which is why DeKeyser would only receive a one-year settlement via a hearing. Mrazek had the option of choosing a one- or two-year deal. DeKeyser is likely to make in the $4.5-$5 million range.
“The player and the club both know what the range would be on a one-year deal,” Holland said. “We continue to have conversation on a longer-term deal. I’m comfortable we can avoid the process. … Danny is Detroit born, he’s happy with his role, happy to be a Red Wings. We are happy with his play.”
The contact breakdown:
DeKeyser breakdown
16-17 $3m + $1m sb
17-18 $5m + $500,000
18-19 $5m + $500,000
19-20 $5m + $500,000
20-21 $4.5m
21-22 $4.5m + $500,000— Tim Wharnsby (@TimWharnsby) July 26, 2016
On the subject of overcompensation, how much better would this contract look if the Red Wings and DeKeyser could have settled in at $4.75 million AAV, based on the range cited above by the Freep?
Look at the deal the Anaheim Ducks cut with Sami Vatanen (26), who carries a $4.875 million hit through a four-year contract. Fewer years, fewer dollars against the cap, and likely a dozen points better on the scoresheet in a full season. Shouldn’t that be where DeKeyser landed?
Look, DeKeyser a fine top-four guy, and solid in his own zone. He’ll get you 21 minutes a night, with around 30 points and a Corsi at even strength that’ll be on the bubble of average, depending on his partner. You can justify the contract with either the “he’s going to get that money anyway as a UFA!” argument or the “why make a problem for yourself when you have a decent solution already?” argument, if you choose to do so.
But the problem with either of those arguments is that they both lead to the same place, which is overcompensating your own player.
Six years is a bit too much at $5 million annually. Factor in a full no-trade clause in 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons, and a modified NTC in part of 2020-21 season and all of 2021-22 season (per Aaron Ward) and it gets even dicier.
But then Holland’s created a payroll that’s so far up against the ceiling that the players are ducking fan blades, so this was expected.
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Greg Wyshynski is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Contact him at [email protected] or find him on Twitter. His book, TAKE YOUR EYE OFF THE PUCK, is available on Amazon and wherever books are sold.
