2016 NFL Preview: Texans have a QB, so expectations will rise

Brock Osweiler with Texans owner Bob McNair (AP)

Shutdown Corner is previewing all 32 teams as we get ready for the NFL season, counting down the teams one per day in reverse order of our initial 2016 power rankings. No. 1 will be revealed on Aug. 6, the day before the Hall of Fame Game kicks off the preseason.

I had doubts about Houston Texans coach Bill O’Brien at the end of last October.

His second season was off to an ugly start. A loss to the Miami Dolphins dropped the Texans to 2-5. Houston trailed the Atlanta Falcons by 42 points in one loss, and the Dolphins by 41 in another defeat. You should go a decade in the NFL between 40-point deficits. The Texans did it twice in a month. The Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans were the worst teams in the NFL last year and neither one allowed 40 points in a game.

O’Brien had a nice rookie season, but he didn’t handle the quarterback situation well early in the year and his team was getting embarrassed far more often than any NFL team should.

By the end of the season, however, I was sold on O’Brien. He’s the best coach in the AFC South. He might be one of the 10 best coaches in the NFL.

The Texans took off after that Dolphins loss, going 7-2 down the stretch and winning the AFC South. They won a division with Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates and Brandon Weeden all starting games at quarterback. To repeat: Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates and Brandon Weeden. The playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs was a nightmare (at least the Texans kept the deficit to only 30 points in that one), but 2015 was a success. There was only one problem: They did not have a quarterback.

And then $72 million later, the Texans had their quarterback.

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It can’t be definitively said that Brock Osweiler is the Texans’ answer at quarterback. He’ll be constantly judged by his contract, which is $18 million a year. That’s unfair since the Texans had to overpay to land him. If $18 million per year was the magic number to solve their quarterback problem (which wouldn’t be a problem had they drafted Derek Carr over guard Xavier Su’a-Filo in 2014), then so be it.

Is it better to brag you were financially responsible while getting Tom Savage ready to start this season?

Osweiler isn’t some guy who won the lottery. He was a second-round pick years ago, got to serve an apprenticeship behind the great Peyton Manning and no matter how much Denver Broncos fans dislike him now, the Broncos would not have been Super Bowl champions without Osweiler’s contribution last season. He had just seven starts, and he was wildly inconsistent, but he also led some enormous wins. He had his moments — and some really big moments at that — and that’s good for a player in his first seven career starts.

And now we can see what O’Brien can do with a quarterback upgrade. O’Brien is 18-14 with practically nothing at quarterback in two seasons (for the few remaining Jeff Fisher defenders — yes, it is possible to finish above .500 with bad quarterback play). The Texans also added free-agent running back Lamar Miller and selected receiver Will Fuller in the first round of the draft and receiver Braxton Miller in the third round. Everything was looking pretty good for the Texans heading into training camp.

And then the record scratched and the music stopped. The late July news that defensive end J.J. Watt had back surgery is a major concern. Most guesses have Watt needing 8-10 weeks of recovery time. It’s hard to believe that Watt will be ready for the ready for the regular-season opener. And if he is, it’s probably because he rushed back and has put himself in danger of having the injury linger all season. And it might linger no matter what; it’s presumably hard on your back to get double-teamed by NFL offensive linemen as you’re recovering from surgery. Everyone knows Watt’s importance to the Texans.

I won’t flee the Texans’ ship yet because Watt should play a majority of the season. And I’m going to bet on him looking like the same old Watt when he returns, or at least close to it. But there are a lot of different ways this can go.

The Texans have a good coach, an upgraded roster and a lot of optimism heading into the season. We’ll have to wait and see if their all-time great defensive star plays most of this season at his usual level.

It depends what you think of Osweiler. I don’t care about the contract because it was either pay that price or go fishing in the Mark Sanchez/Robert Griffin III waters. Osweiler isn’t a star but he’s an upgrade. Lamar Miller was a nice signing. I don’t love the Texans picking Will Fuller over Josh Doctson, a better all-around receiver, but I get it. Fuller’s deep speed complements DeAndre Hopkins’ overall game. I also don’t love that the Texans lost guard Brandon Brooks and center Ben Jones in free agency. But it’s really hard to upgrade at quarterback in the NFL, and the Texans did it. Grade: B+

There have been many times the past two years when you watched the Texans and thought, “If only they had a quarterback.” Or, if Arian Foster was out, “If only they had a quarterback and a running back.” Done and done. Forget Brock Osweiler for a moment, Lamar Miller might be a breakout star now that he’s with a coaching staff that will get him the ball, something the Dolphins strangely could never figure out.

Let’s assume that we could have put “J.J. Watt back injury” in 100-point type and moved on to the next section, and diagnose the other obvious issue for the Texans. There aren’t many quarterbacks who are sure things after seven NFL starts. I don’t think Brock Osweiler will be more than a middle-of-the-pack starter, but there’s nothing wrong with that. The Texans don’t need him to be a Pro Bowler (I know what you’re saying, and again, get the contract out of your head). The problem is if Osweiler can’t be an average starter. Maybe he’s Brian Hoyer 2.0 but making three times as much money. Even if Osweiler is just a taller Hoyer, the Texans can still make the playoffs. They have shown that. But the goals should be higher this season. And if Osweiler isn’t even Hoyer … uh oh.

One thing to keep in mind with Brock Osweiler’s contract: The Texans are really married to him for only two seasons. If Osweiler fails in 2016 and 2017, the Texans can comfortably cut him in 2018. Not that it would be a happy day to move on after two years and $37 million guaranteed, but even if Osweiler is an uber-bust, it’s not a franchise-killing contract.

Come on, you already know.

Cosell: “[Brock] Osweiler, I thought, acquitted himself well in his seven starts last year. He played on a Denver team that was a run-first team and he was a complementary piece. He made some big-time throws last year — I can think of the game against New England on a Sunday night, when he made a big-time throw to Emmanuel Sanders late in the fourth quarter down the left sideline against Malcolm Butler. So he has the ability. He’s a big kid, he throws the ball well. I think ultimately Bill O’Brien wants to have a balanced offense, this is not a ‘drop back 40 times a game’ offense. My guess is Osweiler will be an efficient player in a Bill O’Brien offense.”

[Click here for Greg Cosell’s podcast previewing the Texans and the rest of the AFC South.]

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The past two seasons, DeAndre Hopkins has 187 catches, 2,731 yards and 17 touchdowns. And that’s from a lot worse quarterbacks than other elite receivers like Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham or Julio Jones get to play with. If Brock Osweiler is smart, he’ll know to target Hopkins early and often. Hopkins is one of the best receivers in football. His numbers might go down (the volume might dip a bit if the Texans run the ball better and don’t trail in as many games), but Hopkins should become even better if Osweiler is an upgrade.

CAN THE TEXANS SURVIVE J.J. WATT’S ABSENCE?

As tempting as it will be for the Texans to get Watt back ASAP, they have to be smart. If sitting him out the first two, three or maybe four games of the season results in a 100 percent Watt for the remainder of the season, then that’s what they have to do.

If the 10-week recovery timetable is accurate, that would put him in the range of maybe returning Week 3. Let’s take an educated and conservative guess and say Watt misses three games. The Texans open at home with the Chicago Bears, Kansas City Chiefs and then play at the Tom Brady-less New England Patriots on a Thursday night (CBS has to be thrilled with how that matchup is turning out). Those are three tough games and the Texans might be looking at 1-2 in that stretch. They could escape with 2-1 but I think they’ll need a great effort from the rest of the front seven to make up for Watt’s absence. We can count on outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus playing well, because he has developed into a very good player.

The Texans really need Jadeveon Clowney to look like the No. 1 overall pick he was a couple years ago. That would help Houston stay competitive until Watt can return.

This is the best-coached team in the AFC South, with the best player in the division, and a much better offense. I think they win the division. I’m not sure they’re a Super Bowl contender yet, though I suppose if we have the “how can you judge Brock Osweiler off seven starts?” conversation, that goes the other way too. Maybe he’s good and we don’t know it yet. Realistically, the Texans will be good enough to win the division, maybe win a playoff game, but I wouldn’t figure on seeing the Texans playing the Super Bowl in their home stadium.

If Brock Osweiler is terrible, then the Texans will start over again at quarterback. And J.J. Watt’s prime won’t last forever (and if back problems are part of his future, his prime might be a lot shorter than any of us want to think about). It would be a shame for the Texans to have one of the greatest defensive players ever and get stuck at 9-7 because they couldn’t find a competent quarterback. And it could happen. One reason the Texans are so interesting this season is because Osweiler might be the biggest wild card in the league.

Brock Osweiler can’t be worse than the Brian Hoyer/T.J. Yates/Ryan Mallett/Brandon Weeden combination, and O’Brien turned that into a division championship. We’ll see vintage Watt in the second half of the season, if not sooner. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts seem to be getting a lot more offseason hype, but that’s ignoring the best team in the AFC South.