What We Learned: What is Brayden Schenn really worth?

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Two big pieces of news for the Schenn family this weekend.

First, Luke Schenn, a serviceable third-pairing defender who was always miscast in a larger role, got a two-year deal with Arizona that should work out nicely for both sides.

And second, Brayden Schenn’s apparent ask for his arbitration hearing (scheduled for Monday) leaked. CSN Philadelphia’s Tim Panaccio says Schenn wants $5.5 million against the cap for just one year, while the Flyers offered him a two-year deal worth a little more than $4.3 million against the cap, with the lower payout coming in year one. That’s not an insurmountable gap or anything, and it’s perfectly plausible that the two sides reach an agreement even before this story is published.

This is, of course, a negotiation. Team goes in low, player comes in high, and then they eventually meet somewhere in the middle. If they split the difference evenly here, that gives Schenn an AAV of $4.9 million; and on the surface that sounds just about right. But the question is whether he’s worth that much in the first place.

Schenn is, after all, coming off the best season of his career, pretty much across the board. He had 26 goals and 59 points, which put him tied for 45th in the league in scoring with guys like Phil Kessel, Matt Duchene and Jonathan Huberdeau. Solid company to be sure. But his previous highs were 20 goals (only okay) and 47 points, so the extent to which he surged forward here is notable in that one cannot be sure he’s going to repeat it. But his expected on-ice goals per 60 at full strength last season (2.4) was more or less in line with that of the previous three years (2.41), and the only thing that really changed was his personal shooting percentage. Maybe you say his goals number comes down as a result, but the total number of points he earned might not move around too much.

One must also keep in mind here that Schenn is coming off his age-24 season (he turns 25 late next month), meaning that he might not have reached his peak in terms of scoring yet. The Flyers are effectively trying to buy what are likely to be his two most productive seasons at what seems like a very low price point.

So when it comes to determining a fair contract number for Schenn here, that really ought to be related to his performance vis-a-vis other players in the past, and thankfully Corsica gives us a way to look at that pretty easily. In terms of 5-on-5 performance, the five seasons to which Schenn’s performance was most comparable are as follows:

You can see teams kind of got pretty good deals on most of these guys, and for good reason. Two of them were either on or coming off entry-level deals, one was a reclamation project (Samsonov), one was well past his prime (Cullen), and Umberger was in the midst of the last contract for which he would be useful and truly productive.

But because those numbers are all over the place it becomes difficult to project where Schenn will land. The Flyers are asking him to take a bridge deal that maybe helps them for the next two seasons, but bridges are rarely a good idea for a team, because they end up making non-peak years even more expensive.

The thing the Flyers kind of have over Schenn, though, is that unlike some of the players above, he doesn’t kill penalties. That’s something that’s often inflationary when it comes to price. How many defense-only players get good-sized contracts versus power play specialists who are often looked down upon? Schenn is, however, a major cog in the Philadelphia power play, with his minutes in that situation coming second only to Claude Giroux. Obviously he’s quite productive on the man advantage — 10-11-21 last season — but that, too, is percentage-driven to some extent.

Again, guys who are really good on the power play don’t deserve much of the scorn they receive for that skill. Goals are goals and all that, but it does somewhat skew perceptions as to what they ought to be worth. Over the previous three years, Schenn had just 12-24-36 in 211 games on the man advantage, and while his use in that role has certainly grown during that time, the increase in his production comes mostly on the power of that goals number. What that means is he’s probably more likely to come in at 1.5 or so in terms of 5-on-4 goals per 60 than the nearly 2.2 he posted last year. That obviously hurts his value going forward.

It’s interesting that Schenn isn’t trying to cash in long-term on his performance last year, though. Asking for $5.5 million might not be totally unreasonable if you’re talking about buying some UFA years — i.e. if he wanted $22 million for four years — but if he wants a prove-it contract that price point doesn’t begin to make sense. On the other hand, the Flyers are low-balling him a little bit on a two-year deal. And frankly the one-year ask is probably a negotiating tactic if nothing else, because Schenn told Flyers reporters he wanted a long-term deal on the team’s pack-up day a few months ago.

So the thing to do here might be to look at other guys making in the neighborhood of that middle contract — the $4.9 million range — and see if that makes sense in terms of comparisons. This includes players like Valtteri Filppula, Derick Brassard, James Neal and Matt Moulson at $5 million, as well as Marian Gaborik, Carl Soderberg, Gustav Nyquist, Vincent Trocheck and Bryan Little a bit below that ($4.7-$4.875 million). That feels about right for Schenn as well, with the caveat that a lot of those deals were signed some time ago and their adjusted AAVs would be a little higher if those players re-signed today.

In the end, I’d expect Schenn to come in right around that mid-point, but perhaps on the lower end of it around Nyquist, Trocheck and Little. And for a player of his quality, $4.8 million or so sounds just about right for a longer-term deal. I’d pay a bit more than that for him at 25 and 26.

As is usually the case ahead of an arbitration hearing, both sides were being a bit silly.

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: One year and short money sounds about right for Stefan Noesen. Maybe give him more than a game in the NHL next season though.

Arizona Coyotes: As long as the coaches use him properly, I really like that Luke Schenn contract.

Boston Bruins: Yup.

Buffalo Sabres: I really don’t see this happening.

Calgary Flames: Just give these guys whatever they want. Well, maybe not Monahan. But Gaudreau for sure.

Carolina Hurricanes: There really isn’t a lot left for the Hurricanes to do this summer. Time to hit the cottage.

Chicago: This is a team that can afford to have more scouts than anyone else. It’s worth noting how all-over-the-place these rankings are, though: Florida makes sense at the bottom of the list, but Columbus being right behind Chicago is a surprise.

Colorado Avalanche: Folks, there’s very little “might be” about this.

Columbus Blue Jackets: The stats suggest Joonas Korpisalo really ought to be the backup. Whether that actually happens remains to be seen.

Dallas Stars: Talent on the Dallas blue line? I dunno. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Detroit Red Wings: Given that Frans Nielsen is gonna be like 67 when his current contract ends, I wouldn’t count on too much offensive production a year or three down the road.

Edmonton Oilers: To answer your question: Perennial misuse and the perceived value of first-overall picks.

Florida Panthers: It’s late July. This is technically news.

Los Angeles Kings: The Kings recently drafted Nolan Stevens, whose dad is John Stevens, who is the associate head coach of the team. Funny how that works out sometimes. Also, though, Nolan can play a bit.

Minnesota Wild: This trade won’t happen because there is exactly a zero percent chance the Capitals would give up Evgeni Kuznetsov for literally anything the Wild could offer.

Montreal Canadiens: This is probably the best news the Habs will get all season.

Nashville Predators: Oh man, let’s goooooo.

New Jersey Devils: Yeah it’s tough to see a guy go through injuries, but if you sign Mike Cammalleri you kind of have to expect them. He has’t cleared 70 games played since 2009.

New York Islanders: This is one of those things to file away until it actually happens. And it might. But let’s not pretend anything is imminent.

New York Rangers: Getting Kevin Hayes and Chris Kreider under contract at solid prices last week is a really nice bit of business for Jeff Gorton.

Ottawa Senators: Ah, jeez, okay.

Philadelphia Flyers: Here’s a look at Flyers prospect Tanner Laczynski, who heads to USA World Junior Evaluation Camp this week.

Pittsburgh Penguins: How on earth was this 11 years ago?

San Jose Sharks: How teams set themselves up for the expansion draft is going to be my favorite thing to monitor for the whole season.

St. Louis Blues: For real, though, can the Blues just trade Kevin Shattenkirk already?

Tampa Bay Lightning: Wow, remember Cory Conacher?

Toronto Maple Leafs: Connor Carrick has a real chance to be a player for the Leafs next year. Very strong AHLer, probably ready to fill a vacancy on the blue line for the big club. And he’s barely 22.

Vancouver Canucks: Seems bad that something like this is the “key.”

Washington Capitals: Man wouldn’t it be so nice to be able to build an entire organization from scratch? Seems like that would be both fun and very important.

Winnipeg Jets: Still nothing on a Jacob Trouba extension, huh? He’s not arbitration-eligible, so this might even end in a holdout. This is weird.

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