Strike Zone: Trade Deadline Preview
This week’s Strike Zone is all about trade candidates and the ramifications of any the deals that might take place. It’s not meant to be a completely comprehensive list of players who could go, but I’ll try to touch on the bigger names and others with a reasonable chance of switching teams this week. I’m starting with position players before moving on to starters and relievers.
Position Players
Ryan Braun (OF Brewers): Braun’s performance justifies his ample salary, but there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of interest out there. It’s some combination of the constant minor injuries, the long-term deal (he’s signed through 2020) and the steroid history that may or may not make him a candidate for future breakdowns. As a result, he’ll probably stay put. If he does go, the Brewers would have opportunities for both Keon Broxton and Kyle Wren to audition for roles in 2017. Neither projects as a starting outfielder, but they could be useful part-timers. Wren currently has a .457 OBP in 41 games for Triple-A Colorado Springs.
Carlos Gonzalez/Charlie Blackmon (OF Rockies): I’m not precisely sure why, but the chances of the Rockies trading an outfielder appear to have dropped over these last couple of weeks. It’s hard to imagine Gonzalez and Blackmon will ever have more trade value to the Rockies than they do right now. Gonzalez has stayed healthy and played at an All-Star level, and he’s signed for one more year after this at $20 million. Blackmon wasn’t far off from making the All-Star team himself and he’s still cheap, but he’s about to get a lot more expensive, he’s 30 and he’s not all that great in center field. Plus, the Rockies have at least one and potentially up to three outfielders they should be looking to break in over the next year. They shouldn’t be shy if someone offers up the right young pitcher for one of these two. A trade would hurt the fantasy value of either, particularly Blackmon if he wouldn’t lead off for his next team. It could also get David Dahl to the majors this year. I didn’t think that was realistic a few weeks ago, but he’s come in at .456/.508/.877 with five homers in his first 15 games since moving up to Triple-A. He’d be one to try in mixed leagues if given a chance.
Josh Reddick (OF Athletics): The A’s would prefer to extend Reddick, but since negotiations haven’t bridged the gap between the two sides, they could move on. Reddick is one of the game’s most underrated players when healthy; a quality defensive right fielder whose numbers have been held back by playing in the Coliseum. Of course, health is an issue; he’s played in 120 games just twice in his career and he won’t get there this year. He just had to be scratched Saturday because of a back ailment. The A’s will keep him rather than trade him for a modest prospect, since they can make him a qualifying offer this winter and secure a supplemental first-rounder if he leaves. Reddick’s fantasy value would most likely get a boost with a trade to a contender. There aren’t any great options to replace him in Oakland. Jake Smolinski would be in line for more at-bats, and Max Muncy could get a look.
Jay Bruce (OF Reds): Bruce has bounced back offensively this year and doesn’t look bad at $13 million for 2017, but the Reds should want no part of his next contract and thus need to trade him now. It’d be a big surprise if it doesn’t happen. Bruce’s fantasy value could decline if he’s sent to the AL, since there’s usually a period of adjustment there. Still, it’s probably not going to hurt him much to leave Great American behind; he’s been quite a bit better on the road these last few years. The Reds would likely give Scott Schebler a long look if Bruce exits. Jose Peraza would also play more outfield, unless the Reds free up an infield spot for him, too. I don’t think we’d see Jesse Winker until September. He’s a nice prospect, but he wouldn’t seem to offer much from a fantasy perspective right now (he has two homers and no steals to go with his .386 OBP in Triple-A).
Melvin Upton Jr. (OF Padres): Upton’s resurgence doesn’t come without caveats: he has the highest swing-and-miss rate and worst walk rate of his career this season. Still, a modest decline would likely be offset by a ballpark switch away from Petco. If he goes to the Orioles, as rumored, it’d probably help his value, though he could lose playing time later if he goes into a slump. The Padres could use the opportunity to break in Hunter Renfroe, who is hitting .330/.354/.602 for Triple-A El Paso this year. I don’t think Renfroe would be a great option in mixed leagues, though. He has plate discipline issues, he’s not a basestealer and his numbers are inflated by the environment in El Paso. He’s hitting just .256/.274/.483 in road games this year. Alex Dickerson might be the better player right now.
Carlos Beltran (OF Yankees): At age 39, Beltran has his best average since 2009 and his best slugging percentage since 2006. He’s already surpassed his homer totals from 2014 and 2015. The downsides here are the injury likelihood and the subpar defense in right field. The Yankees probably won’t get overly much for him as a result. It also doesn’t help that his most likely suitor, the Royals, no longer look like buyers. It’s possible he’ll stay with the team at the deadline and get moved in August if the Yankees don’t find themselves in the wild card mix. A Beltran deal would create a spot for Aaron Judge, who could have some mixed-league value down the stretch. Judge is currently sidelined with a knee injury, but he had overcome a slow start and was hitting .261/.357/.469 with 16 homers in 318 at-bats from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre before going down.
Yasiel Puig (OF Dodgers): It’s been a couple of years since Puig has played like a star. It’s also been a couple of years since he’s been healthy for a reasonable length of time. These two facts are surely related. The questions potential suitors are asking themselves are a) is he a better bet to stay healthy going forward? and b) have the injuries he’s already suffered left him permanently diminished? I think the answer to the second question is no. There haven’t been any catastrophic injuries thus far. I’m not as confident that there’s a positive answer to the first question. I don’t think the Dodgers will get a proper return for Puig if they move him, so I think it makes more sense to keep him and hope for the best. Because, although he hasn’t been a star lately, he hasn’t been terrible either and it makes more sense to hope he gets it going than to pay the price to try and upgrade in his spot. If Puig does go, then it might be that Beltran, Bruce or Reddick takes his place.
Jonathan Lucroy (C Brewers): Easily the top catcher on the market, Lucroy is both really good and really cheap; he makes $4.25 million this year and $5.25 million next year in his final season before free agency. The Brewers would rather rebuild around him than deal him, but he is 30 and he’s going to be quadrupling his salary in his next contract. If they can get two top youngsters for him, it’d probably be worth it to make a move. Should Lucroy get traded, Manny Pina would likely be brought up to split time with Martin Maldonado. I’ve been rooting for Josmil Pinto to get another chance in the majors, but he’s mostly playing first base for Triple-A Colorado Springs.
Derek Norris (C Padres): The Padres are ready to go to a catching duo of Austin Hedges and Christian Bethancourt, but Norris is having a down year and won’t fetch much of a return if the Padres part with him now. He’s hitting just .203/.261/.381 in 281 at-bats, and it’s not like he makes up for it with particularly good defense behind the plate. On the plus side, he’s relatively cheap and he won’t be a free agent until after 2018. He might be looking at a reduced role if he’s traded to a contender, though there wouldn’t seem to be any teams out there that would just need him as a starter against left-handers. If he comes cheap enough, a non-contender could take a flier on him (Cincinnati? Milwaukee after a Lucroy trade?). Hedges has been awesome in Triple-A this year, hitting .367/.408/.729 with 17 homers in 191 at-bats, but I’m still skeptical that he’d be much of a fantasy asset as the Padres’ starting catcher.
Adam Lind (1B Mariners): The Mariners just picked up DH hopeful Dan Vogelbach from the Cubs for Mike Montgomery. Now they could make room for him by sending Lind elsewhere, if anyone wants him. It’s not a robust market for first basemen and designated hitters right now, and Lind has had a surprisingly poor season after three seasons of consistent production. As a result, Lind seems more likely to go in an August deal than in a pre-deadline trade. A deal would make Dae-Ho Lee the starting first baseman and a more intriguing option in mixed leagues. Vogelbach, 23, has hit .319/.425/.556 with 17 homers in the PCL this year. I don’t think he’d become all that valuable in mixed leagues, but he could be a fringe guy.
Eduardo Nunez (INF-OF Twins): Sell high. Nunez had always been a little underrated offensively, but he’s never had the glove to succeed at a premium position or the bat to be useful as a regular in a corner spot. This year, it’s really come together for him and he hasn’t been as bad at shortstop as he used to be. Still, it’s probably more of a career year than anything that can be expected from him going forward. If the Twins can get a quality prospect for him, they should take advantage. It probably wouldn’t make much of a difference for Nunez’s fantasy value, since anyone willing to buy high on him would intend to use him as a starter, not as a part-timer.
Zack Cozart (SS Reds): Cozart has had the year of his life at age 30; he’s already tied his high with 15 homers and he’s on pace for best average (.265), OBP (.317) and slugging (.471) of his career. He also remains a plus defender at shortstop. He can’t be counted on to keep getting on base at such a clip, but even at worst, he’s an asset defensively who will go deep every once in a while. Since he’s under control for another year and probably won’t make much more than $6 million in arbitration, the Reds will want a significant return for him. As much as they’d like to break Peraza into the starting lineup, Peraza is a better fit at second than at short. The Reds, of course, would love to move Brandon Phillips, but that doesn’t seem at all likely to happen.
Steve Pearce (INF-OF Rays): Pearce has struggled to stay healthy this year, but he’s been a force when in the lineup, crushing left-handers (.377/.468/.736 in 53 AB) and more than holding his own against righties (.295/.353/.460 in 139 AB). He’s even started 14 games at second base, as the Rays have carried on Buck Showalter’s experiment with Pearce in Baltimore last year. Pearce isn’t such a good bet to keep hitting righties, but a lot of teams would love to have him as a starter against lefties and insurance policy. The Rays will probably trade him and maybe give Richie Shaffer a look in his spot. Shaffer, though, needs to get hot in Triple-A. He’s been a big disappointment, hitting just .235/.337/.363 for Triple-A Durham. Last year, he hit .270/.355/.582 in 69 games for the same club.
Joey Gallo/Nomar Mazara/Jurickson Profar (Rangers): The Rangers are weighing trading from their stock of young position players in order to better their pitching. Mazara probably goes in nothing less than a Chris Sale deal. He’s the likely All-Star in this trio; he’s struggled after a scorching intro to the majors, but he’s just 21 and the tools are there to make him one of the game’s best right fielders. Profar would be sufficient trade bait for some other quality arms. He’s demonstrated that he can play shortstop, which is what teams really needed to see from him after his two-year battle with shoulder problems. He’s really cooled off with the bat, perhaps in part because of the inconsistent playing time. Gallo has more skeptics because of his approach at the plate, and the Rangers haven’t given him any opportunity this year in spite of their lack of production at first base and DH. Something figures to shake loose there to get Gallo a shot in August, whether it’s the Rangers trading him or giving him Prince Fielder’s vacated lineup spot. He should have some mixed-league value. I’m guessing Profar gets moved for a pitcher, which would probably help his value some. Mazara is more likely to stay.
