What We Learned: How Jamie Benn's deal affects Tavares, Marchand
No one needs to be convinced of Jamie Benn’s credentials for a bank-breaking contract. When most people heard “eight years at $9.5 million per,” it speaks to the quality of his play that the general reaction was, “Yeah, that sounds about right.”
Here is a kid who turns 27 today, who led the league in scoring two seasons ago and cleared 79 points each of the last three seasons. He finished third in MVP voting this past year. He’s second in points over the last three seasons (255) behind only Sidney Crosby (273).
Likewise, all his underlying numbers likewise indicate the heavy minutes he plays are of a high quality not just through points but also possession, scoring chances, and so on; in the past three years, only one player in the NHL leads Benn in producing expected goals per 60 minutes, and John Tavares’s edge on him is just a hundredth of a goal (3.13 to Benn’s 3.12).
The League was watching is deal because a) they wanted to see if there would be any real drama playing out here that might lead Benn to test the UFA market next summer, and b) more than anything else, it was going to set the bar for a number of contracts in the next few years.
When the new contract kicks in he will be about the same age as Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Anze Kopitar are now. While we may think of Benn as being relatively young, he’ll be 28 next summer, right in line with what the best players in the league are right this second. Of the players with the seven-largest AAVs in the league for next season, only Alex Ovechkin is older than 29. Of course, most of those guys aren’t signed as long (age-wise) as Benn is. He’s locked up until a few weeks before his 35th birthday, which is more or less the age at which you start to worry whether he’s still a productive player.
Benn’s AAV put him into a tie for fifth in the league alongside Evgeni Malkin, and about $38,000 a year behind Alex Ovechkin. Ovechkin is perhaps a fitting comparison here, because he and Benn are probably the two best left wings alive. Only Taylor Hall ($6 million AAV for another four seasons, what a bargain) and Brad Marchand (UFA after next season) are even in the conversation at that position.
But the new Benn contract is noteworthy given that a number of high-profile, high-quality, young-ish players are up for extensions in the next two summers, and they’re very likely to cash in. That Marchand deal obviously isn’t going to approach Benn’s in terms of AAV simply because Marchand doesn’t have the counting stats, but it should still be extremely rich.
The good news for the Bruins — they’re already negotiating on that extension, as they consider him a “core guy,” which they should — is that they might be able to argue Marchand shouldn’t get a contract richer than Patrice Bergeron, who is seen as integral to Marchand’s quality, or at least David Krejci, who is inexplicably better-paid than Bergeron. Marchand will be coming into UFA status at 29, and he’s a little more than a year older than Benn. Perhaps that comes into play in terms of the Benn contract’s term.
But it absolutely should not in terms of AAV, because Marchand is nearly as good as Benn. By any rational standard, he should be at least an $8.5 million player if Benn is a $9.5 million guy, you can’t really argue Marchand isn’t a comparable.
Perhaps more importantly for the league as a whole is that John Tavares will be eligible to sign a new contract less than a year from now, and his ship really ought to come in. No one would argue that. In much the same way as Benn’s last contract was an extreme value for Dallas, Tavares has basically been the bargain of the century for the Islanders the last few years.
Tavares does just about everything slightly better than Benn, and also plays a more important position, and is further potentially more valuable to his franchise than Benn is to Dallas in some respects. For instance, if you take Benn off the Stars, at least they still have Tyler Seguin and John Klingberg, among others, for the future. If you take Tavares off the Islanders, that team probably doesn’t make the playoffs. Such is his relative value. And oh yeah, he’ll be two years younger than Benn when that new deal goes into effect.
When you get this high up in the league in terms of value, the incremental difference between the best players isn’t too significant, to be honest. For example, Benn was in the 97th percentile in terms of primary 5-on-5 points per 60 minutes, while Tavares was in the 98th. Trying to put a difference on the price point based on that is tough to do, but given what the Islanders would become without Tavares, you have to think they break the current league record of a $10.5 million AAV to retain him. How do you not, honestly?
If Benn got $9.5 million, it’s totally reasonable to see a more integral-to-team-success star in a bigger market who is very slightly better and two years younger pull, say, $10.75 million or even $11 million. Tavares was going to get paid anyway, of course, but almost everyone else with a top-end contract — Toews, Kane, Kopitar, Malkin, Crosby — could have also claimed “Cups” in the negotiating process. Only Ovechkin (who signed his deal a million years ago), P.K. Subban (traded already), and now Benn are breaking the bank without team success on which to hang their hats. Tavares is not particularly likely to win a Cup over the next season or two. Nor, for that matter, is Benn.
If this is a league that placed a premium on winning, maybe the Benn contract shows that’s not a prerequisite for getting a dump truck full of money backed up to your driveway any more. Good for Tavares. And if this is a league that’s getting smarter about player evaluation, players with huge underlying numbers and 5-on-5 production should be viewed roughly in the same neighborhood as guys like Benn. Good for Marchand.
The NHL has long undervalued its stars in terms of dollars relative to value. Maybe the Benn contract shows that’s changing.
What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: The latest Ducks news is that Korbinian Holzer re-signed last week, helping the Ducks keep up in the important “guys whose names sound Essosi” category. And that move probably opens the door even more for a Cam Fowler trade.
Arizona Coyotes: The big work for the Coyotes is pretty much done, so they’re just tidying up around the house at this point.
Boston Bruins: The Bruins are, not surprisingly, going to rely more heavily on kids in the near future.
Buffalo Sabres: The Sabres added an assistant coach that’s sure to make their national games called by Pierre McGuire way more trivia-filled. No thanks!
Calgary Flames: The Flames are guaranteed to put Troy Brouwer with Gaudreau and Monahan, aren’t they?
Carolina Hurricanes: When almost all your defensemen are under the age of 25 and you really only kinda have one spot open on the blue line, that’s pretty good news.
Chicago: Ehhhh, that’s not great.
Colorado Avalanche: Oooo, maybe this is the coach who will say, “Actually Tyson Barrie is good.”
Columbus Blue Jackets: How many times have we heard, “This team should be good in the future because their AHL team won the Calder Cup this year?” Detroit and Ottawa seems like the most recent ones to get that nod, and I guess that’s going back six years now, but still. AHL team success has little to no correlation to NHL team success.
Dallas Stars: Jim Nill is not concerned about the prospect of Val Nichushkin going back to Russia.
Detroit Red Wings: Ah jeez. Don’t though.
Edmonton Oilers: The Oilers’ offseason gets an A-minus? Hoooo boy, watch the games, bud.
Florida Panthers: This seems like a really good idea.
Los Angeles Kings: Another Danish kid could soon be in the NHL. Emerging hockey power?
Minnesota Wild: Hmm do you think the Wild will be better with Bruce Boudreau coaching? Everyone else does.
Montreal Canadiens: Haha good luck with that.
Nashville Predators: PK Subban says the Preds can contend for the Cup. Let’s go!
New Jersey Devils: Is this good?
New York Islanders: Speaking of that John Tavares extension…
New York Rangers: Prospect Robin Kovacs is small and takes a lot of penalties. You almost never see players like that.
Ottawa Senators: Man, what ever happened to Bobby Ryan? Only 40 goals over the last two years?
Philadelphia Flyers: Wow, next thing you know Flyers parody accounts will be playing blindfold beer pong with Anna Kendrick.
Pittsburgh Penguins: You know there was one guy in Cole Harbour who was like, “Ah, who wants to fight all that traffic?”
San Jose Sharks: Nice little signing to get Matt Nieto for just $735,000. Decent-ish fourth-line player.
St. Louis Blues: The Jaden Schwartz extension was sneakily very, very good.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Not sure I get the need to lock up a player like Alex Killorn for seven years, but the price is fine I guess?
Toronto Maple Leafs: Man, you know the Leafs have a lot of money when they can call an entire city up from the AHL.
Vancouver Canucks: We all know the answer to this question.
Washington Capitals: Marcus Johansson has to be closing in on the all-time NHL record for arbitration hearings.
Winnipeg Jets: Ah yes, legendary Thrashers Anders Hedberg, Bobby Hull, and Ulf Nilsson. Gotta celebrate your team history.
Gold Star Award
What have we done to deserve a boy this good in our lives? Patrik Laine’s nickname is “Patsyuk” oh my godddddddddd.
Minus of the Weekend
“Compete” for what, exactly?
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Year
User “Moltisanti” wants to get the band back together.
Jimmy Hayes
For
To BOS:
Jarome Iginla
Signoff
Am I so out of touch? No, it’s the children who are wrong.
Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.
(All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)
