Offseason Low Down: Raiders Fantasy Preview

Raiders Year in Review

2015 Pass Attempts Rank: 14th (605)
2015 Rush Attempts Rank: 29th (370)
2015 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 24th (1,008)
2015 Yards Per Play Rank: 23rd (5.3)

This is a link to all of Silva’s Team Fantasy Previews.

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Derek Carr
RB: Latavius Murray
WR: Amari Cooper
WR: Michael Crabtree
WR: Seth Roberts
LT: Donald Penn
LG: Kelechi Osemele
C: Rodney Hudson
RG: Gabe Jackson
RT: Austin Howard

Passing Game Outlook

Derek Carr‘s sophomore NFL season began remarkably with a 104.3 passer rating and top-ten fantasy quarterback numbers in the initial eight games. His rating slumped to 79.2 with QB15 stats from Week 10 on, managing a 13:9 TD-to-INT ratio and 58.7% completion rate in the final eight weeks. While Carr has flashed big-time tools as an athlete and power passer, his on-field play has been uneven in each of his first two years. Although I am mostly sold on Carr as the Raiders’ franchise quarterback, he is a player I’m avoiding in 2016 fantasy drafts. Carr’s current ADP is the QB12/13, right on par with Kirk Cousins and ahead of Tyrod Taylor, Tony Romo, and Matthew Stafford, all of whom I’d take over Carr. Under defensive-minded coach Jack Del Rio and power-run-game believer OC Bill Musgrave, Carr’s pass attempts could take a significant hit due to improved game flow following Oakland’s impressive offensive line and defensive additions. I like the Raiders’ chances of taking major strides as a team, thus leaning much less on their passing attack to stay in games. So far in his career, Carr has not demonstrated the efficiency required to offset a sizable volume loss. With all of that said, Carr has the best pass-defense schedule in the NFL in Weeks 1-5 (@ NO, vs. ATL, @ TEN, @ BAL, vs. SD). Oakland’s opponents thereafter are terrifying, making Carr a prime sell-high candidate if he starts hot.

The No. 4 pick in last year’s draft, Amari Cooper proved NFL ready and then some at the ripe age of 21, posting top-16 PPR receiver stats in the Raiders’ opening 11 games. Cooper suffered a debilitating foot injury in Week 13 against the Chiefs and failed to top 20 yards in three of the season’s final four weeks. In January, GM Reggie McKenzie revealed the Raiders considered “shutting down” Cooper due to the injury. In his fully-healthy games, Cooper’s 16-game pace stats were 84-1,238-6, which would’ve made him last year’s WR15 finisher in both PPR and non-PPR formats. One red flag on Cooper’s rookie season was his shortage of scoring-position usage. He was targeted only seven times in the red zone and drew zero targets inside the opposing ten-yard line. They’re hindsight stats that may be bound for positive regression, but also alarming if Carr and/or Musgrave don’t trust that Cooper is capable of winning consistently in the air and with physicality in tight quarters. Michael Crabtree doubled Cooper’s red-zone targets (15) and drew six passes inside the ten. Slot receiver Seth Roberts exceeded Cooper’s red-zone target total (10) and rookie TE Clive Walford equaled it. On a team that looks likely to lose passing volume, Cooper will have to score more and separate himself from Crabtree in the target pecking order to meet or exceed his second-/third-round Average Draft Position. As a Cooper Dynasty owner, I’ll be pulling for him. His re-draft ADP is a bit too rich for my taste.

Michael Crabtree was widely left for dead following an injury- and drop-filled 2014 season in San Francisco. Profootballtalk.com reported two weeks into 2015 free agency that Crabtree had “little or no market,” while the Dolphins bypassed him in favor of washed-up Greg Jennings. Crabtree was forced to wait well over a month into the free agency period before accepting an incentive-laden one-year prove-it deal from the Raiders. Crabtree annihilated camp and outplayed Cooper in the first half of the season (47-591-5). Just as Derek Carr slumped in the second half, so too did Crabtree (38-331-4). The Raiders still signed him to a four-year, $35 million extension in December, and Crabtree will return for his age-29 season in 2016. Last year’s WR16 (PPR) and WR19 (non-PPR), Crabtree made his 2015 living on possession routes and volume, drawing 146 looks compared to Cooper’s 130. If the Raiders throw less and the target pendulum swings to Cooper, Crabtree could lose quite a bit of fantasy steam. While Crabtree’s WR35-37 Average Draft Position has stayed reasonable, his odds of becoming a true fantasy difference maker are low barring an injury to Cooper. I’m willing to consider Crabtree when he slips to the seventh round of 12-team drafts, and ignoring him at higher costs.

A member of the Raiders’ 2014 practice squad after going undrafted out of West Alabama, Seth Roberts took a big step forward as a second-year pro. He tore up the preseason (15-243-1) and beat out Andre Holmes and Rod Streater for Oakland’s third receiver role, manning the slot between Cooper and Crabtree in three-wide sets. Roberts drew five-plus targets in just 5-of-16 games, but he had big ones against the Browns in Week 3 (3-56-1), Steelers in Week 9 (3-73), and Titans in Week 12 (6-113-2), averaging 15.0 yards per reception and converting 5-of-10 red-zone targets into touchdowns. Roberts played 57% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps. At this year’s minicamp, Carr praised Roberts for consistently “winning his route” and defeating man coverage. Straight-line speedy with 4.44 wheels at 6-foot-2, 196, Roberts should be kept in mind in case Cooper or Crabtree misses time. Roberts is worth owning in Dynasty leagues.

The 68th pick in last year’s draft, Clive Walford earned an immediate timeshare with Mychal Rivera and Lee Smith. In-line blocker Smith actually led the Raiders’ tight ends in snaps (49%). Walford played 41% of the downs, gradually passing Rivera as the season progressed. Walford was used as a combination tight end, splitting his snaps between route running and blocking at a nearly 50:50 clip. He topped 40 yards in three of the final five weeks, averaging 5.2 targets per game in Weeks 13-17. Although Walford is not very big (6’4/251) or fast (4.79), there is some Dwayne Allen-lite to his game. Walford is unlikely to make fantasy noise in what I’m expecting to be a run-first offense, but he might become streamer worthy if he wins a big enough role.

Running Game Outlook

Latavius Murray entered 2015 as a popular breakout pick and technically finished as an RB1, compiling and staying healthy enough to rank 10th among running backs in non-PPR points and 11th in PPR. Murray averaged 3.25 yards per carry in the last eight games, however, and scored three touchdowns in the final ten weeks. He noticeably wore down as both games and the season progressed, averaging 2.2 YPC in fourth quarters and losing work to Jamize Olawale, Taiwan Jones, Roy Helu, and Marcel Reece down the stretch. Murray was one of the league’s least useful passing-game backs, finishing 19th in targets at the position despite ranking fourth in snaps, averaging an anemic 5.7 yards per catch, and committing a few memorably-comical drops. Already 26 years old, Murray needs to turn his career back around and will have to fend off intriguing rookie DeAndre Washington in order to do it. Oakland’s easy Weeks 1-5 schedule (@ NO, vs. ATL, @ TEN, @ BAL, vs. SD) applies to Murray, too, and he could conceivably parlay a fast start into another season of 300-plus touches. If the Raiders’ defense and offensive line become as good as they have the potential to be, Murray would likely smash his fourth- to fifth-round ADP on volume alone. He remains the heavy favorite for carries in Oakland.

Particularly in PPR leagues, fifth-round rookie DeAndre Washington poses the biggest threat to Murray’s value. Washington clocked 4.49 in Indy and caught 124 passes in college. He hinted at possibilities for more by handling 20-plus carries six times as a Texas Tech senior and averaging 6.73 YPC in those games. Washington’s workhorse potential is worth exploring because GM Reggie McKenzie has called him “more than just a third-down back; a complete back.” And because Washington stands 5-foot-8, 204. Washington received first-team reps during OTAs, some at Murray’s expense. Barring a faceplant by Murray, Washington’s most likely rookie-year usage will be in a Giovani Bernard or Duke Johnson type of role. Although he is less of a non-PPR target, I’ve started to look at Washington in the early double-digit rounds of PPR drafts.

2016 Vegas Win Total

The Raiders’ Win Total opened at seven games and was quickly bet up to eight. Working in their favor is a schedule Warren Sharp assessed as the NFL’s 12th softest, made up of the weak South divisions, the Bills (home), and the Ravens (away). Most important is vastly upgraded personnel; the Raiders’ offensive line and defense look absolutely loaded on paper, and the skill positions are young and improving. And I wouldn’t necessarily label this a free-agency built team because the core of Oakland’s young talent has come via the draft and undrafted free agency. I think the Raiders can make a run at a Wild Card spot, or even the AFC West division crown this year. Yes, I’m buying the hype. I’d be willing to take the over on both 8.0 and 8.5 wins.

This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
Recommended article from FiveFilters.org: Most Labour MPs in the UK Are Revolting.