Man, the 2013 NBA draft was truly awful. Actually, it was the worst ever. – Washington Post
Anthony Bennett, whom the Cleveland Cavaliers selected No. 1 overall in 2013, is difficult to classify as anything but a bust. The power forward out of UNLV never started as a rookie. He was shipped out of Cleveland in his second year as filler in the Andrew Wiggins-Kevin Love trade before landing in his native Toronto in Year 3, who waived him in-season to clear a spot for Jason Thompson. Not an impressive resume for a No. 1 pick.
But Bennett is getting another chance to make it in the NBA, this time with the Brooklyn Nets, as reported Thursday. This may be his last chance.
He is the only top overall pick since 1985 to not accumulate at least two wins shares — he had zero — and, using that metric, surpasses 1998’s top pick Michael Olowokandi as the biggest bust in modern draft history.
Bennett’s value was also below what you could expect from a player freely available in free agency or in the D-League. According to value over replacement, a box score estimate of the points per 100 team possessions that a player contributed above a replacement-level player, Bennett has been worth minus-1.7 net points per 100 possessions. Olowokandi is the only other top pick that was worse (minus-5.2 VORP over first three seasons).
But at least Olowokandi had some semblance of an NBA game. He posted 9.1 points and 7.4 rebounds during his first three seasons, and nearly averaged a double-double in his fifth season, putting up 12.3 points and 9.1 rebounds per game for the Los Angeles Clippers. Bennett, meanwhile, has struggled in almost every way possible: he has barely passed the ball (.5 assists per game) or grabbed rebounds (3.1 per game), and has shot a mere 38.8 percent from the floor.
Bennett could join Mark Workman, the No. 1 overall pick in 1952, as the only two top picks in NBA history to play less than 2,000 minutes in the league.
If you could re-pick the 2013 NBA draft, knowing what we know now, forget about Bennett going No. 1. He might not even be selected.
Seriously, though: Re-picking 2013 draft, who would go No. 1 now? It’s crazy thin. Giannis? Gobert? Schroder?! https://t.co/4LxPldeXIq
— Glenn Yoder (@glennyoder) July 14, 2016
@glennyoder Giannis, Gobert, Adams, McCollum, Oladipo, Schroder would be top six, in that order.
— Tim Bontemps (@TimBontemps) July 14, 2016
Based on win shares, two of the later picks, No. 27 Rudy Gobert (16.1 win shares) and No. 22 Mason Plumlee (15.5), probably deserved a higher selection, followed closely by No. 15 Giannis Antetokounmpo (14.5), No. 12 Steven Adams (13.5) and No. 21 Gorgui Dieng (13.0). Cody Zeller, the No. 4 overall pick, could make a case for remaining in the Top 5.
Using VORP, Gobert (6.8) stays at the top of the draft class, but Dieng (5.5) moves up to second, followed by Plumlee (5.2), Antetokounmpo (4.9) and Oladipo (4.3).
A box-score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player has Gobert (3.9), Dieng (2.2), and Plumlee (2.0) as the three most-productive players in the draft with Lucas Nogueira of the Toronto Raptors (1.4) climbing into fourth place. Kelly Olynyk (1.3) and Tony Mitchell (1.3) would compete to round out the top five.
Per these advanced metrics, here is what a perfect re-draft of the first round of the 2013 NBA draft would look like. Note that Bennett is nowhere to be found and that that class’ Rookie of the Year, Michael Carter-Williams, slides all the way to No. 21:
1. Rudy Gobert (No. 27 pick in 2013 draft)
2. Mason Plumlee (No. 22)
3. Gorgui Dieng (No. 21)
4. Steven Adams (No. 12)
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo (No. 15)
6. Kelly Olynyk No. 13)
7. Cody Zeller (No. 4)
8. Victor Oladipo (No. 2)
9. Jeff Withey (No. 39)
10. Nerlens Noel (No. 6)
11. Otto Porter (No. 3)
12. Andre Roberson (No. 26)
13. Tony Mitchell (No. 37)
14. Lucas Nogueira (No. 16)
15. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (No. 8)
16. C.J. McCollum (No. 10)
17. Mike Muscala (No. 44)
18. Solomon Hill (No. 23)
19. Allen Crabbe (No. 31)
20. James Ennis (No. 50)
21. Michael Carter-Williams (No. 11)
22. Joffrey Lauvergne (No. 55)
23. Raul Neto (No. 47)
24. Ryan Kelly (No. 48)
25. Reggie Bullock (No. 25)
26. Trey Burke (No. 9)
27. Alex Len (No. 5)
28. Isaiah Canaan (No. 34)
29. Ben McLemore (No. 7)
30. Tim Hardaway (No. 24)
Gobert as the top pick is hard to argue. The 7-foot-1 center played 31.7 minutes per night last season, averaging 10.4 points, 12.4 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game for the Utah Jazz. He also grabbed 4.5 contested rebounds per game, fifth highest in the league. He wasn’t great on his cuts to the basket (1.02 points per possession, placing him in the bottom 20 percent of the league) but he was very good in the pick and roll, scoring 63.2 percent of the time. Defensively, he allowed .84 points per possession and held shooters to just 40.5 percent from the field.
Plumlee ranked 14th among centers last season in ESPN’s real plus-minus, which adjusts net point differential per 100 possessions for teammates and opponents, and Dieng ranked fourth among centers for most points scored per possession in transition (1.38). Adams played a big role in Oklahoma City’s playoff run (10.1 points and 9.5 rebounds per game). Antetokounmpo, also known as the “Greek Freak,” had a breakout season in 2016, scoring 16.9 points per game with 7.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists while bring used on a career high 22.3 percent of Milwaukee’s possessions. You could make a likely argument for him as top pick based on potential.
But overall, the entire first round of the 2013 was weak, one of the weakest since 1985, the first year of the draft lottery. If we look at all the win shares credited per 48 minutes by players selected in the first round, only the 2000 draft had less to offer NBA franchises. Those players from the first round of the 2000 draft produced .0789 win shares per 48 minutes, performance on par with what we saw Meyers Leonard give Portland this past season. The same group from 2013 produced just .0793.
Not a single player from the 2013 draft has made an all-star team or all-NBA team yet, and 11 players have yet to suit up for a single NBA game. Three players from the class of 2000 — Kenyon Martin, Jamaal Magloire, and Michael Redd — were selected for at least one all-star game or all-NBA Team and only eight never made their NBA debut. In terms of value, the No. 1 overall pick in 2000, Martin, falls to just the fifth spot if the re-draft was calculated based on win shares, and two other Top 10 picks — No. 5 Mike Miller and No. 8 Jamal Crawford — make appearances in the Top 3. The same can’t be said for the players selected in 2013, which is why they are the worst draft class in NBA history.
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