Three-Point Stance: Are expectations inflated for Jones, Cousins?
Move over Lincoln and Jefferson, if Kirk Cousins carries over momentum from last year’s scintillating string of performances, Washingtonians may soon erect a memorial in his honor. In this edition of the ‘Stance,’ Brad Evans and Liz Loza discuss the QB’s 2016 prospects alongside fellow national treasures Matt Jones and Josh Doctson. Salute!
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Jones (57.4 ADP, RB22), after a rocky rookie season marred by fumbles and blown goal-line opportunities, has created a schism in the fantasy community. Though much disputed, he is slated to shoulder the load this fall. BELIEVE or MAKE BELIEVE: Jones silences his critics, refuses to relinquish the starting gig and finishes inside the RB top-20 in total production.
Liz – BELIEVE. Or at least for right now, in the middle of July, before preseason action, I believe. The head honchos in DC want Jones to be the guy and have done everything in their power – from releasing Alfred Morris to ignoring the position until the seventh round of the NFL daft – to ensure he leads the Skins backfield.
A physically imposing back with above average speed and agility for a player of his size, Jones possesses a skill set with every down potential. He can catch out of the backfield and isn’t afraid to truck over defenders. If he can clean up the fumbles – which has been his primary focus this spring – then he could garner upwards of 18-20 touches per game. Even at a YPC below 4.0, that kind of volume is enough to keep Jones within the top-twenty players at the position.
Brad – BELIEVE. Looking past his warts, all arrows point to Jones being the workhorse for Jay Gurden this season. Most importantly, he’s worked tirelessly on ball protection in preparation. Yes, several primary (e.g. 3.4 ypc) and secondary stats (No. 70 in juke percentage) from last year don’t lend much confidence, but the sample size was relatively small (163 touches) and the competition behind him doesn’t exactly jump off the page. Chris Thompson is a Theo Riddick-like change-of-pace back and rookie Keith Marshall is no lock to make the team.
Behind an above-average offensive line and the featured player on a team that called ‘run’ 398 times last season, he’s a near lock for 300-plus touches. You’re stupidly chasing imaginary Pokemon if you can’t see that. Even if he again netted 4.9 yards per touch, he would accumulate close to 1,500 combined yards with at least six touchdowns. Achieve that and he’ll likely venture into RB1 territory in 12-team leagues. In other words, he’s this year’s version of Doug Martin, a divisive starting RB who should turn a tidy profit, provided he doesn’t cough up the rock.
Those who took a leap of faith with Captain Kirk (130.3 ADP, QB12) over the season’s second half were rewarded handsomely. With the QB clearly on firm ground and aiming for a lucrative long-term deal, OVER/UNDER total touchdowns this season 32.5?
Liz – UNDER. I’d have more faith in Cousins if his team would show more faith in him. Unwilling to offer the Creed fan a long-term deal, Cousins will have to replicate his 2015 numbers if he wants to get paid in 2017. But I’m not 100 percent certain he can catch lighting in a bottle over back-to-back campaigns.
After all, his weapons, while awesome on paper, are far from reliable: Jordan Reed has only started fourteen games in his three seasons as a pro, DeSean Jackson is a 29-year-old speed guy who averaged fewer than four catches per outing in 2015, Pierre Garcon is an aging possession receiver with a 6 TD ceiling, and rookie wideout Josh Doctson missed precious reps at OTAs due to a foot injury.
Not to mention the fact that five of Cousins’ 34 TDs last season came via the ground. That’s some fluky production. If Matt Jones improves, as I suspect he will, then Cousins won’t be such a goal line gremlin. The cutie out of MSU is a solid QB2, but he’s not a top-ten play in 2016.
Brad – OVER. His love of Creed alone should knock him down a tier or three on cheat sheets, but a dramatic drop off in production seems unlikely. The arrival of Josh Norman is a significant shot in the arm for a unit that ranked No. 28 in total defense last season. Despite that upgrade and improvements at linebacker, the ‘Skins D won’t suddenly mirror the 2000 Ravens. That combined with Cousins’ plus arsenal (D-Jax, Reed, Garcon, Doctson, Thompson) and money motivation imply he will likely eclipse the proposed number.
And let’s not forget just how dynamite Cousins was last year. Recall he ranked top-10 in several categories including yards per attempt, completion percentage, passer rating and fantasy points per dropback. The guy can play. Yes, the rushing TDs were an aberration, but 33 passing touchdowns are not far fetched.
FILL IN THE BLANK. First-round pick Josh Doctson (129.3, WR56) enters training camp with considerable buzz, particularly with the dynasty crowd. This year, the greenhorn finishes with ____ receptions for ____ yards and ____ touchdowns. Explain.
Liz – 46-598-5
My projection was higher before he suffered the Achilles injury in the spring. While he should be back in time for training camp, he’s going to have a lot to catch up on, and that’s likely to slow the start of his season. I love his red zone appeal and think he’ll average between 12 and 13 yards per reception, but with DJax and Garcon firmly entrenched as the team’s starters it’s hard to see the rookie amassing a ton of targets.
Of course, those guys are both aging and the young gun boasts oodles of upside. He’s likely to come on towards the final half to third of the season, making him a tempting stash for those with deep benches. And, yes, dynasty owners have good reason to be excited about his long-term appeal.
Brad – 55-738-6
Don’t be overly concerned with Doctson’s missed time earlier this summer. Training camp and the exhibition season are most crucial when it comes to player development. Given his long, wiry frame and high-point/ball-adjustment talents, he should instantly deliver on his red-zone promise. It’s only a matter of time before he surpasses either D-Jax or Garcon to become Washington’s No. 2 option outside Reed.
Bull rush Brad @YahooNoise and Liz @LizLoza_FF on Twitter.
