Against the Spread: Updated NFL Schedule Strength

We last examined Strength of Schedule in the middle of April. The NFL schedule had just been released, and no team had participated in OTAs or minicamp. Now just a few weeks before training camp, we know more about these teams and will continue to learn through training camp and the preseason. We continually get smarter with more data, realizing teams’ strengths and weaknesses as news emerges and sample sizes grow.

It is important to constantly update Strength of Schedule (SOS) projections throughout the offseason and during the season. Unfortunately, most SOS rankings use prior-year records to project current-year SOS. This is truly asinine and does not allow for any new data-driven modification. It assumes every team is exactly the quallity of its 2015 won-loss record, and completely ignores coaching changes, free agency, the draft, and OTAs.

My personal SOS numbers are constantly evolving and “telling us” new information. I use forecasted 2016 wins from the current betting market. Sports books project win totals for every team, and at this point in the summer, several independent and seasoned linemakers have posted their numbers. The longer their lines are up, the more efficient they become, as the linemakers adjust their win totals based on volume as well as respect they have for certain money that is bet.

In this column, we will rank and examine two elements of their projections. First, we will look at a ranking of how SOS has changed from initial lines posted in February. Second, we will look at where current SOS projections rank based on current Vegas lines.

If curious as to visualizations of each team’s 2016 SOS, I just finished my crowning offseason work: a season preview magazine which you can read on Amazon. Each team chapter breaks down weekly SOS through the use of the win totals technique. It should be a valuable resource.

Before we dive in, here is an updated ranking of current 2016 SOS using the most accurate method of calculation from the most difficult (#1) to the easiest (#32) schedules. Rankings from the first article in April are in parentheses. You can easily spot teams whose schedules have become easier or harder based on market perception of their opponents.

1. (1) San Francisco 49ers
2. (4) Washington Redskins
3. (2) New York Jets
4. (10) Houston Texans
5. (12) Philadelphia Eagles
6. (3) Atlanta Falcons
7. (13) Cleveland Browns
8. (9) Buffalo Bills
9. (6) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10. (11) Denver Broncos
11. (8) Minnesota Vikings
12. (5) Los Angeles Rams
13. (15) Detroit Lions
14. (16) Miami Dolphins
15. (7) New Orleans Saints
16. (14) Jacksonville Jaguars
17. (17) Tennessee Titans
18. (20) Indianapolis Colts
19. (26) Baltimore Ravens
20. (24) Chicago Bears
21. (18) Oakland Raiders
22. (25) Kansas City Chiefs
23. (22) Arizona Cardinals
T24. (28) Green Bay Packers
T24. (23) New England Patriots
26. (18) San Diego Chargers
27. (27) Cincinnati Bengals
28. (30) Pittsburgh Steelers
29. (21) Seattle Seahawks
30. (31) New York Giants
31. (29) Carolina Panthers
32. (32) Dallas Cowboys

The betting market adjusts to the amount of money bet into it, and since most bettors are strangely optimistic, numbers are usually bet toward positive outcomes. For season win totals, this means that the public gravitates heavily toward over bets. When comparing the lines from February 2016 to July 2016, we find that 24 teams saw their win totals bet higher, while just 7 saw their win totals bet lower. On average, each team’s cumulative opponent win totals (16 opponents) increased by 0.3125 projected wins. In sum, this was a combined 5 total wins over the course of the season. No team’s schedule is technically “easier” based on the current lines than it was based on the February lines. But relative to other teams, some teams saw their SOS get easier while others saw it get significantly worse.

Let’s discuss the teams, ordering them based on average increase of opponent strength.

Titans (#1 opponent increase, #17 SOS)

Tennessee saw its opponent win totals increase by a combined 8.9 wins, which is 78% more than average. Much of this came from the betting bullishness on the Jaguars, the team most bet over by a large margin. Jacksonville’s win total has been effectively bet up from 6.3 to 7.8 over the course of the offseason. Of the Titans’ 16 opponents, 14 are projected stronger now than they were in February.

The Titans still have the 17th rated SOS. In Weeks 5-9, they have the easiest stretch of any NFL team (@ MIA, vs CLE, vs IND, vs JAX, @ SD), also featuring a 3-game homestand. The last 4 games for Tennessee have increased to the 3rd most difficult late-season stretch of any team (vs DEN, @ KC, @ JAX, vs HOU).

Broncos (#2 opponent increase, #10 SOS)

Denver’s opponent win totals have increased by 8.1 combined wins, 62% above average. All 16 opponents the Broncos face are projected stronger now than they were when lines opened. The largest jump is the Jaguars, but the Texans and Raiders both have much more optimistic outlooks now.

Denver starts its title defense with the most difficult first 3 weeks of any team, featuring games against the Panthers, Colts and Bengals. But from Weeks 4 through 14, the Broncos will actually face the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL. They close with home games against the Patriots and Raiders and a trip to the Chiefs, marking the most difficult ending for any team. Should the Broncos see early success against strong opposition, their schedule’s weak middle sets up for a strong defense of the Lombardi Trophy.

Texans (#3 opponent increase, #4 SOS)

When compared to opening numbers, the Texans face 14 opponents which are more difficult and just one who is projected to be easier. Their opponent win totals increased 60% above average. Their opponents who were bet up the most are the Jaguars, Bears, Vikings and Raiders.

Winning the AFC South for the third time in franchise history gave the Texans the Patriots and Bengals in 2016. The fixed schedule rotation gave the Texans the NFC North and AFC West. The only reason their overall schedule is not more difficult is four games vs the Titans and Jaguars, but both have been bet up. The Texans do get to start the year with three of four home games, one of only six teams with that benefit. And instead of playing in Oakland Week 11, they play Oakland in Mexico. The Texans almost swept the AFC South the last two years, but their struggles have come in their non-division slate, where they are 10-21 (32%) the last three years and 4-11 (27%) on the road. This year, success won’t come as easily with non-home games against the Patriots, Vikings, Broncos, Packers and Raiders.

Colts (#4 opponent increase, #18 SOS)

The Colts face 12 opponents projected stronger and 2 opponents (Jets and Broncos) projected weaker when compared to opening numbers.

Aside from Week 2 in Denver, the Colts’ first five games look manageable. They have the 6th easiest start of any team. The interesting aspect is the end of that stretch, as they are the first team to play in London (Week 4 vs JAC) and then play the very next week (home vs CHI). Such travel and lack of rest could be tough, and the Colts follow with back-to-back road games (@ HOU, @ TEN) and won’t get a bye until they play two more very challenging opponents (KC, GB).

Chargers (#5 opponent increase, #26 SOS)

The Chargers are an interesting case study because they opened with the 30th SOS in February. By April, that had been bet to 18th. Now, after incorporating odds from multiple sportsbooks and seeing the offseason play out further, it has shifted to 26th. As compared to the open, all but one opponent (Denver) is viewed as more difficult. And compared to the open, the Chargers’ average opponent strength has increased 40% above average.

Playing the Titans and Browns out of division always will lighten a team’s Strength of Schedule. Once an exciting, nationally televised team, the Chargers play just one primetime game this year, a Thursday nighter in Week 6 vs the Broncos. San Diego won’t be able to get too comfortable, however, as they play just one set of back-to-back home games and it’s not until Weeks 9-10.

Lions (#6 opponent increase, #13 SOS)

The Lions will face 3 teams who have been faded by offseason betting in the Redskins, Eagles and Rams. But they do go up against the Jaguars, Bears, Texans and Vikings, all of which have been bet toward the over by more than 0.5 games apiece.

The Lions have three sets of back-to-back road games, the first of which is in the first four games of the year and features roadtrips to division foes Green Bay and Chicago. But here’s an interesting quirk: Those 2 games are two of just 3 games Detroit plays outdoors all year. After Week 4, they play just one more game outdoors (@ NYG in Week 15). The Lions’ other road opponents include the Colts, Texans, Vikings, Saints and Cowboys — all dome teams.

Jaguars (#7 opponent increase, #16 SOS)

The Jaguars obviously can’t play themselves, and they are the team whose projected SOS has increased the most. So it holds that they must face a number of teams bet toward the over by significant amounts. The Ravens, Bears, Vikings, Texans and Raiders are their 5 opponents who have been most bet toward the over. They get the Bills and Broncos who have been bet toward the under, but overall, their opponent strength has increased 38% over average.

Jacksonville’s ranking is deceptive – it’s not more difficult simply because they play the Titans twice. But looking at the visualization on my website, this schedule is rough. They lose a home game due to playing it in London, and their short week before their Thursday night game in Tennessee kicks off a stretch which sees the Jags play four road games in five weeks. They close with a daunting 5-game stretch featuring the Broncos, Vikings, Texans and Colts, although statistically it doesn’t rank as difficult because of an “easier” game vs the Titans in Jacksonville.

Packers (#8 opponent increase, #24 SOS)

The Packers were at #28 in the April article after opening at #29. While their schedule is aided by the two NFC East teams (Philadelphia and Washington) that were bet down, Green Bay’s own division foes Chicago and Minnesota were both bet up by good margins.

For the rest of the NFL, it seems unfair to see such strong teams like the Steelers, Panthers and Packers with easy schedules. But thanks to a schedule that gives Green Bay the AFC South and NFC East, the hardest part of their schedule is the consecutive travel: The Packers are one of just two teams to play three straight road games (Weeks 10-12 @ TEN, @ WAS, @ PHI) — the first 3 game road trip for Green Bay since 2012. However, that difficulty is offset by the fact that between September 19 and October 29, the Packers don’t leave Wisconsin as they play 4 consecutive home games and enjoy a bye week. They get their 3 most difficult opponents down the stretch (HOU, SEA, MIN) all at home.

Bears (#9 opponent increase, #20 SOS)

The Bears play a very similar schedule to the Packers, so it is not odd for them to be nestled close to each other in terms of new opponent strength. Unlike the Packers, the Bears do get the Bucs and 49ers, but both opponents have been bet toward the over by more than 0.5 wins. Overall, the Bears’ difficulty increased 28% over average.

The Bears started 2015 with 3 straight losses to tough teams (GB, ARI, SEA) and never could get back on track. Their 2016 schedule is not nearly as tough, and if they can weather some early difficulty, the back half of their schedule sets up nicely. The issue up front is the fact they alternate home and road games through Week 8, but their road slate is difficult (@ HOU, @ DAL, @ IND, @ GB) as compared to their home slate (vs PHI, vs DET, vs JAC). If the Bears can survive that run and make it to the bye week, they play 4 home games in 5 weeks with a short trip to Detroit in Week 14. The Bears actually have more home game back-to-backs than road game back-to-backs. And from Week 10 on, they play the easiest schedule in the NFL. The national audience will get a lot of the Bears early, as for some reason Chicago plays four of their first eight games in primetime.

Raiders (#10 opponent increase, #21 SOS)

Oakland faces a handful of middling 2015 teams who are projected stronger in 2016, such as the Ravens, Buccaneers and the previously mentioned Jaguars.

Oakland’s start features the 3rd easiest schedule (@ NO, vs ATL, @ TEN, @ BAL). Including their Week 5 game vs the Chargers, the Raiders have the single easiest first five games in the NFL. The problems for Oakland are their early-day starts and losing a home game to Mexico. Oakland plays five games at 10 AM for their body clock, including three in the season’s first month. It’s the most “early starts” for any Pacific-based team. They lose their Week 11 home game vs the Texans on Monday night to Mexico. And from Week 9 on, the Raiders play the 2nd most difficult schedule in the NFL.

Vikings (#11 opponent increase, #11 SOS)

The Vikings face 3 teams projected to win 10+ games (Packers, Cardinals, Panthers) and a handful of others projected to finish near or above 8 wins (Dallas, Indianapolis, Houston, NY Giants and Jacksonville). Overall their schedule grew more difficult by 20% above the NFL average when comparing current odds to opening odds.

While their schedule is nearly top 10 in difficulty, the worst of it comes in Weeks 2-5, taking on the Packers, Panthers, Texans and Giants. But three of those four games are at home, and after their bye, the Vikings play 4 consecutive opponents who are projected to have losing records. Winning at home and beating opponents they should beat could put Minnesota in a great position to make the postseason, but they may need to win one of their two toughest games after Week 5: home vs the Cardinals (Week 11) or on the road in Green Bay (Week 16), a place they have struggled immensely over the last decade.

Buccaneers (#12 opponent increase, #9 SOS)

Tampa Bay’s current rank of #9 is primarily increased due to the teams in the Western divisions having rosier outlooks than at open. The Raiders, Chiefs, 49ers, Cardinals, Seahawks and Chargers are all viewed as slightly better than they were when the offseason started.

Playing the AFC West and NFC West automatically gives the Bucs a tough draw, and because of last year’s 4th place finish in the NFC South, they draw the Cowboys and Bears, both of which are poised to improve on their poor 2015 seasons. The reality for Tampa Bay is their first 5 weeks (before their Week 6 bye) represent the 3rd most difficult start any team has this year, with games against the Cardinals, Broncos and Panthers. But from Week 7 onward, their schedule is actually well easier than average.

Saints (#13 opponent increase, #15 SOS)

Like the Buccaneers above, the Saints are primarily impacted by having to play the AFC and NFC West. Both divisions have been taking money toward the over on win totals with the exceptions of the Broncos and Rams. That said, their overall schedule strength increased just 8% above average.

The Saints are one of eight teams with only one back-to-back road game stretch, but it comes in Weeks 14 and 15, and leaves them closing the season with 3 of 4 games on the road, one of only four teams to do so. New Orleans has an easier start (Weeks 1-4) and finish (Weeks 12-17), but the stretch from Weeks 6 through 11 is by far the most brutal of any team this year. They face the Panthers twice, the Seahawks, Broncos and Chiefs during that span. And New Orleans has an incredible homefield edge, but hosts just one primetime game (Week 3 vs ATL).

Chiefs (#14 opponent increase, #22 SOS)

Thanks to playing the Broncos twice and the Jets, even the fact that preseason darlings Jacksonville and Oakland are on the Chiefs’ schedule does not put them much above average in opponent difficulty since lines first opened.

Kansas City’s schedule has a lot to like. Even with updated numbers, they still play the NFL’s softest slate from Week 13 to the end of the season (@ ATL, vs OAK, vs TEN, vs DEN, @ SD). They have a 3-game homestand to close the month of December, and they host a Thursday night game (games on Thursday are far more difficult for traveling teams). The only qualms the Chiefs might have are that they have a fairly early bye (Week 5) and their most difficult games are on the road. If you look at their schedule prior to hosting Denver in Week 16, the Chiefs’ most difficult opponents are all on the road (@ HOU, @ PIT, @ IND, @ CAR, @ DEN). Their home schedule during that span (vs SD, vs NYJ, vs NO, vs JAC, vs TB) is significantly easier.

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