Goal Line Stand: Silva's Pre-Camp Top 150

This is my updated Fantasy Football Top 150 board for 2016. I am playing strictly points-per-reception (PPR) leagues at this stage of the offseason, so this list is based on that format. After doing nearly 60 drafts since last season ended, I have a pretty good grasp on where players are going, and where and how the public is valuing them. I tend to bump my preferred targets up the board, and bump down players I’m avoiding with respect to evolving Average Draft Positions (ADPs).

For more intense thoughts on players and teams, check out my Team Fantasy Previews, as well as the NFC Preview Podcast and AFC Preview Podcast with Josh Norris and I.

1. Antonio Brown (WR1) — Has 152 catches, 2,039 yards in Ben’s last 16 healthy games.
2. Julio Jones (WR2) — Julio is NFL’s all-time leader in receiving yards per game (95.4).
3. Odell Beckham (WR3) — Beckham’s receiving stats in his last 16 games: 108-1,635-14.
4. A.J. Green (WR4) — Set for career high in targets with Sanu/Jones gone & Eifert hurt.
5. Dez Bryant (WR5) — Has scored 34 TDs over his last 29 games played with Tony Romo.
6. DeAndre Hopkins (WR6) — Last year’s PPR WR4. Improving every year, still only 24yo.
7. Allen Robinson (WR7) — TDs (14) will regress, but catch total (80) has room to grow.
8. Keenan Allen (WR8) — Was on 134-1,450-8 receiving pace before his Week 8 injury.
9. Ezekiel Elliott (RB1) — Read my take on Zeke here. 3-down RB behind NFL’s best OL.
10. David Johnson (RB2) — 1,974-total yard, 73-catch, 13.7-TD pace as starter last year.
11. Todd Gurley (RB3) — Elite talent, true workhorse in run-dominated Rams offense.
12. Le’Veon Bell (RB4) — 3 knee ligament issues last 2 years. Will rise if ready for camp.

13. Alshon Jeffery (WR9) — Alshon has 70+ yards and/or a TD in 32 of his last 38 games.
14. Rob Gronkowski (TE1) — Garoppolo dings him. Top-2 fantasy TE in 4 of last 5 years.
15. Lamar Miller (RB5) — Put my take on Miller here. Volume not a problem anymore.
16. Devonta Freeman (RB6) — Last year’s overall RB1. Receiving, goal-line roles secure.
17. Jamaal Charles (RB7) — Coming off torn ACL. 2nd highest career YPC avg in history.
18. Brandon Marshall (WR10) — 32yo. Top-5 fantasy receiver in 3 of his last 4 seasons.
19. T.Y. Hilton (WR11) — Has a 82-1,504-10 receiving line over Luck’s last 16 full games.
20. Adrian Peterson (RB8) — 31 1/2 when season starts. Receptions ceiling is around 35.
21. Jordy Nelson (WR12) — Coming off ACL tear at age 31. Was the overall WR2 in 2014.
22. Mike Evans (WR13) — Awful TD luck in ’15. Still had 74 catches/1,206 yards at age 22.
23. Mark Ingram (RB9) — Was the overall PPR RB3 before injuring shoulder in Week 13.
24. Brandin Cooks (WR14) — Not yet 23. Was the PPR WR8 from Week 4 on last season.

25. Randall Cobb (WR15) — Could lead GB in receiving if Jordy doesn’t regain full speed.
26. Golden Tate (WR16) — My pick to lead the NFC in targets & catches post-Megatron.
27. Jeremy Maclin (WR17) — Wrote my full take on Maclin here. Last year’s WR19 in PPR.
28. Jordan Reed (TE2) — He outscored Rob Gronkowski in PPR points per game last year.
29. Demaryius Thomas (WR18) — Declining efficiency, QB concerns in run-first offense.
30. Jarvis Landry (WR19) — May lose some volume, but TD total (4) has room for growth.
31. Amari Cooper (WR20) — Only saw 7 red-zone targets last year. Saw zero inside the 10.
32. Sammy Watkins (WR21) — Hip surgery last offseason, now coming off foot surgery.
33. Eddie Lacy (RB10) — Has wide range of outcomes & lots on the line in contract year.
34. LeSean McCoy (RB11) — Averaged 21.2 touches in his ten full games played last year.
35. Donte Moncrief (WR22) — Breakout receiver. Colts lost 222 targets from last season.
36. Matt Forte (RB12) — Turns 31 in December. Top-5 RB1 upside in PPR if he stays healthy.

37. Doug Martin (RB13) — Had 2 catches or fewer in 11 of the Bucs’ 16 games last season.
38. Dion Lewis (RB14) — Avg’d 94.8 total yards with 4 TDs in his six full games last year.
39. Julian Edelman (WR23) — Turned 30 in May. Has had 2 foot surgeries since November.
40. C.J. Anderson (RB15) — Will be focal point of Broncos’ post-Peyton Manning offense.
41. Doug Baldwin (WR24) — 14 TDs unrepeatable, but post-bye receptions pace (94) is.
42. Eric Decker (WR25) — Had 80+ yards and/or TD in all 15 of his appearances last year.
43. Thomas Rawls (RB16) — Will move up if ready for camp. Still has pass-game concerns.
44. Michael Floyd (WR26) — Contract year. My pick to lead Cardinals WRs in yards & TDs.
45. John Brown (WR27) — Last year’s PPR WR26. Arguably the highest-floor AZ receiver.
46. Larry Fitzgerald (WR28) — Targets sank when David Johnson took over at running back.
47. Kelvin Benjamin (WR29) — Wrote here why I think Benjamin will be overdrafted in ’16.
48. DeVante Parker (WR30) — Pace stats were 59-1,187-8 over Dolphins’ final six games.

49. Emmanuel Sanders (WR31) — Could prove a better value than Demaryius in the 3rd.
50. Jordan Matthews (WR32) — Still Eagles’ clear No. 1 WR. Agholor looking like a bust.
51. Duke Johnson (RB17) — Big PPR potential. Could lead all running backs in catches.
52. Danny Woodhead (RB18) — Primary passing-game/RZ back in high-volume offense.
53. Carlos Hyde (RB19) — High bust risk as injury-riddled early-down RB on a bad team.
54. Greg Olsen (TE3) — Cam’s most trusted target. Top-4 fantasy TE in back-to-back yrs.
55. Jay Ajayi (RB20) — Fins drafted Drake, but have hinted Ajayi could be a 3-down RB.
56. Matt Jones (RB21) — Boom-bust RB pick. Could flame out or score double-digit TDs.
57. Cam Newton (QB1) — 2015’s top fantasy quarterback gets back Kelvin Benjamin.
58. Aaron Rodgers (QB2) — Poised for bounce-back season with Jordy Nelson healthy.
59. Travis Kelce (TE4) — Better value in drafts this season. Targets likely to increase.
60. Frank Gore (RB22) — Underrated RB2 lasting until 6th/7th rounds of 12-team drafts.

61. Tyler Lockett (WR33) — Lockett’s ADP is rising fast after Matt Harmon crowned him.
62. Marvin Jones (WR34) — Has chance to see 120+ targets & lead Lions in TD catches.
63. Ryan Mathews (RB23) — Likely lead RB in committee involving Smallwood/Sproles.
64. Latavius Murray (RB24) — Value pick, or trap? DeAndre Washington poses a threat.
65. Corey Coleman (WR35) — Highest-ceiling rookie WR on team that will play catchup.
66. DeSean Jackson (WR36) — Value pick coming off disappointing, injury-ruined year.
67. Russell Wilson (QB3) — Fantasy finishes through 4 years: QB9 > QB8 > QB3 > QB2.
68. Kevin White (WR37) — Fully healthy. Likely complementary WR on run-first team.
69. Michael Crabtree (WR38) — Low-ceiling fringe WR3 avgd 41.5 yds in last 8 games.
70. Jonathan Stewart (RB25) — Secure carries, but doesn’t score much or catch passes.
71. Drew Brees (QB4) — Career-best weapons? The early-round QB I’ll draft this year.
72. Jeremy Langford (RB26) — Penciled in as lead RB in Bears 2- or 3-way committee.

73. Coby Fleener (TE5) — Ben Watson finished as PPR TE7 at age 34/35 in this offense.
74. Kamar Aiken (WR39) — Explained here why I think Aiken will lead BAL in receiving.
75. Andrew Luck (QB5) — Overall QB1 upside if he stays healthy & regains 2014 form.
76. Giovani Bernard (RB27) — High-floor/low-upside flex. Unlikely to start scoring TDs.
77. Jeremy Hill (RB28) — Bengals have historically leaned heavily on Hill w/ Eifert out.
78. Tyler Eifert (TE6) — Underwent ankle surgery in May. Looking doubtful for Week 1.
79. Charles Sims (RB29) — Secure receiving role. Could explode if Martin went down.
80. Allen Hurns (WR40) — Poised for scoring regression after 10 TD-/64-catch season.
81. Ameer Abdullah (RB30) — Explosive player, but poor bet for catches & touchdowns.
82. DeMarco Murray (RB31) — I expect Derrick Henry to unseat Murray early this year.
83. Torrey Smith (WR41) — 49ers could lead NFL in pass attempts. Their No. 1 receiver.
84. Tavon Austin (WR42) — 2015’s PPR WR29. Rams still intent on forcing him touches.

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