Offseason Beat: Bargains, Overpays & Best Fits
Now that we’ve had some time to for the sticker shock of new NBA free agency prices to wear off, we can digest the implications of these deals through a more reasonable lens.
I’ve broken down notable signings into four categories as follows:
Biggest Overpays: You better hope this works out.
Best Values: The on paper fit is good & the price is even better.
Best Fits: Self-explanatory
What Were They Thinking?: The risk may outweigh the reward.
Biggest Overpays
Timofey Mozgov, C Los Angeles Lakers
Contract Terms: Four-year, $64M deal
If you’re going to overpay, it should at least be at a position of need. It’s still unclear how Mozgov will fit with a Lakers team that’s expected to get up and down the floor under new head coach Luke Walton, but some people seem to be conveniently overlooking the fact that this is the same guy who changed the complexion of a LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers team after that franchise gave up two first-round picks to acquire him. In Los Angeles, Mozzy will get ample opportunity to prove the doubters wrong.
Chandler Parsons, F Memphis Grizzlies
Contract Terms: Four-year, $94.5M deal
Parsons showed everyone why there were so many teams hesitant to pay him before the Dallas Mavericks previously did, but the Grizzlies weren’t going to let Mike Conley’s record contract deter them from bringing in a legitimate starter for the biggest hole on their roster. Although Parsons has done nothing to prove he’s a max player, the fit in Memphis should allow him to potentially blossom in ways that were likely not achievable elsewhere. The ability to stay on the floor would be a good first step in Parsons changing his reputation.
Harrison Barnes, F Dallas Mavericks
Contract Terms: Four-year, $94.5M deal
It’s not entirely clear what team(s) the Mavs were competing with when signing Barnes to a $95M deal, and it’s fair to wonder if Dallas played their hand too early prior to Kevin Durant making his free agent decision. Although he’s still just 24 and should be more involved in the offensive attack than he ever was with Golden State, Barnes has never averaged double-digit shot attempts and there is no accurate way to project how he’ll fare when penciled in as a primary name on the opposition’s scouting report.
Evan Turner, G/F Portland Trail Blazers
Contract Terms: Four-year, $70M deal
Turner’s NBA career was on life support upon arriving in Boston, but he left the Celtics as a $70M man and with lifelong membership to club Green Team. The fit in Portland is questionable at best since Turner operates best with the ball in his hands, and that’s not going to happen if he’s spending the majority of his minutes alongside Damian Lillard and/or C.J. McCollum. On top of that, Turner is a career 30.5% shooter from deep and is coming off a year in which he connected at just a 24.1% clip from distance. The Blazers must have wanted to add another playmaker to the second unit, but the on paper fit would appear to favor a return of Allen Crabbe and/or Moe Harkless over phoning home for E.T.
Matthew Dellavedova, PG Milwaukee Bucks
Contract Terms: Four-year, $38.5M deal
Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to be the primary ballhandler, Michael Carter-Williams remains on the roster and Tyler Ennis is a perfectly capable third-string point guard with the potential to grow in his role. What, exactly, was the need for Delly at $40M? Nearly $10M annually is a lot to pay for a player who shouldn’t be in a winning team’s rotation.
Best Values
Nicolas Batum, F Charlotte Hornets
Contract Terms: Five-year, $120M deal
Bringing Batum back was essential, and locking him in for less than the maximum value he could have received should keep Michael Jordan’s team moving in the right direction.
Jordan Clarkson, G Los Angeles Lakers
Contract Terms: Four-year, $50M deal
Although Clarkson was limited in what he could earn due to the Gilbert Arenas provision, the Lakers did very well to re-sign a potential building block for an average of $12.5M annually—though that is not exactly how his contract shakes out—before another team’s offer sheet could throw a wrench in any potential plans.
Evan Fournier, G/F Orlando Magic
Contract Terms: Five-year, $85M deal
In an NBA landscape where everyone is seeing the (Monopoly) money, Orlando getting Fournier back on a very reasonable number following his breakout season is a rare good move for this Magic front office.
Darrell Arthur, PF Denver Nuggets
Contract Terms: Three-year, $23M deal
Arthur is a solid veteran who emerged as a Mike Malone favorite last season, and his new deal gives Denver additional flexibility to potentially move on from Kenneth Faried should the front office decide to unleash the Nikola Jokic–Jusuf Nurkic tandem.
Arron Afflalo, SG Sacramento Kings
Contract Terms: Two-year, $25M deal
Anything but Dion Waiters, right? Jokes aside, Afflalo should be able to bring something to the two-guard position that the Kings haven’t seen in a while.
Marvin Williams, F Charlotte Hornets
Contract Terms: Four-year, $54.5M deal
Williams could have had more money elsewhere (Hello, Brooklyn), but he decided to prioritize fit and comfort under a coach in Steve Clifford who was finally able to guide him to the fountain of consistency. He should again see big minutes at power forward with Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist soaking up the majority of the playing time on the wing.
Andrew Nicholson, PF Washington Wizards
Contract Terms: Four-year, $26M deal
Nicholson is going to have to improve his defensive effort as well as his motor, but he’s got the offensive skills to pay the bills and should play a rotational role behind Markieff Morris.
Zaza Pachulia, C & David West, F/C Golden State Warriors
Contract Terms: One-year, $2.9M deal, One-year, $1.55M deal
One explanation: Golden State has successfully tapped into its GameShark and unlocked all of the cheat codes. Another explanation: Adding Kevin Durant to a club that won a record 73 regular season games brings ancillary benefits.
Seth Curry, G Dallas Mavericks
Contract Terms: Two-year, $6M deal
Curry may want to think about hiring a new agent that can get him a better deal. In this NBA, there is no real reason Curry should have agreed to anything less than $5M annually, and I thought he’d get even more than that. Perhaps he can play a sixth man role in Dallas, but Rick Carlisle favorites J.J. Barea and Justin Anderson might have something to say about that. It would have been nice to see Curry land in a spot with a more defined role as well as a clearer path to paying time.
Festus Ezeli, C Portland Trail Blazers
Contract Terms: Two-year, $15M deal
Projected as a player who stood to get paid this offseason, Ezeli will take a “prove it” type of deal on an up-and-coming Portland team instead. If his health cooperates, the big man could be in line to make it rain during the summer of 2017.
Best Fits
Kevin Durant, F Golden State Warriors
Contract Terms: Two-year, $54.3M deal
The Warriors may have lost the NBA Finals, but Golden State won the offseason with the successful recruitment of Durant’s services. It’s unheard of for a record-setting club to make a move of this magnitude, but the Warriors have recently made a habit of redefining what we believe to be possible.
Al Horford, F/C Boston Celtics
Contract Terms: Four-year, $113M deal
Although Boston may not have landed its future franchise superstar in which to build around, the Celtics were able to net a (still underrated) player who will redefine their trajectory, improve their free agent appeal and fills a massive immediate need on a team that continues to take steps in the right direction.
Al Jefferson, C Indiana Pacers
Contract Terms: Three-year, $30M deal
Big Al may not be the player that he was once was earlier in his career, but Jefferson provides insurance behind Myles Turner, gives the Pacers something they didn’t have and comes at a very reasonable price. Larry Bird’s strong offseason continues.
Mirza Teletovic, F Milwaukee Bucks
Contract Terms: Three-year, $30M deal
Milwaukee needs to add shooting everywhere—especially in its frontcourt—and Teletovic is an excellent fit in that regard. Despite his role being a bit undefined given the makeup of the rest of the roster, Jason Kidd didn’t spend $30M on this player to keep him sitting on the bench. Teletovic, a career 37.5% shooter from deep, shot a career-best 39.3% (5.8 3PA per game) from distance in 2015-16.
Joakim Noah, C New York Knicks
Contract Terms: Four-year, $72M deal
Many Knicks fans were (and still may be) uncomfortable with a four-year commitment to Noah, but that’s what the free agent market has dictated and Noah comes at just $2M more annually than Timofey Mozgov. He fits well with the roster Phil Jackson has constructed and can be a leader on a team that needs more of a vocal presence. If you had told me New York could ship out Jose Calderon, Robin Lopez and Jerian Grant in order to wind up with Noah and Derrick Rose before it all went down, I would have signed up for it on the spot.
Luol Deng, F Los Angeles Lakers
Contract Terms: Four-year, $72M deal
Yes, the Lakers did just draft Brandon Ingram, but this is a historic franchise that has a roster filled with kids whose birth years are in the 1990s. Deng, a proven two-way player capable of contributing on and off the floor, gives Luke Walton a veteran presence in the locker room and on the court, something Los Angeles will find very valuable in the post-Kobe Bryant era.
Trevor Booker, F/C Brooklyn Nets
Contract Terms: Two-year, $18.5M deal
Booker can play, and he’ll have every opportunity to do just that on a paper-thin Brooklyn front line.
Ryan Anderson, PF Houston Rockets
Contract Terms: Four-year, $80M deal
Obviously Houston will need to answer a lot of questions defensively—especially under new head coach Mike D’Antoni—but Ryno should excel offensively as this team’s starting four in a system where Anderson could average upwards of seven threes nightly.
Courtney Lee, SG New York Knicks
Contract Terms: Four-year, $50M deal
Lee should be just what the Knicks needed at the starting SG spot, and while there are lingering questions about just how good of a player Lee truly is, the role New York will ask him to play is nearly ideal for someone with his skillset.
What Were They Thinking?
Rajon Rondo, PG Chicago Bulls
Contract Terms: Two-year, $28M deal
Rondo can blame Dwyane Wade for his presence on this list, though one could argue that he could have showed up here regardless of Wade’s status. Both Wade and Jimmy Butler are most effective with the ball in their hands, and Rondo can be reduced to a non-factor if he’s forced to operate without it. It’s a weird fit for both sides, and Rondo could find himself on the trade block as he’s operating on a virtual one-year deal.
E’Twaun Moore, G New Orleans Pelicans
Contract Terms: Four-year, $34M deal
I like some of the things Moore did during his Chicago tenure, but this feels like money that could have been better spent elsewhere. I understand the health concerns around both Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans, but Langston Galloway is now in the fold, Tim Frazier is expected to return and the Pelicans still have Luke Babbitt as their primary backup power forward.
Ian Mahinmi, C Washington Wizards
Contract Terms: Four-year, $64M deal
Washington had no choice but to max Bradley Beal even if some are calling it a gigantic overpay, but the Wizards had other options when it came to Mahinmi. The only way this deal makes some kind of sense is if Marcin Gortat is on the move, but there has been nothing to suggest that plan of action is currently in the cards. If the Wizards had known Jason Smith would have been available on a three-year, $16M deal, perhaps GM Ernie Grunfeld wouldn’t have made the Mahinmi move.
Bismack Biyombo, C Orlando Magic
Contract Terms: Four-year, $72M deal
The “Biyombo Breakout” was both real and spectacular, but an average annual value of $18M for a team that already rostered both Serge Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic is a head-scratching price to pay. I’m hoping Vooch isn’t next in GM Rob Hennigan’s cycle of “trade everyone from the previous core” plan—especially given the returns for Tobias Harris and Victor Oladipo—but something has to give with Ibaka, Biyombo, Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Jeff Green all in the mix for minutes.
Tyler Johnson, G & Allen Crabbe, G/F Brooklyn Nets (Offer Sheets)
Contract Terms: Four-year, $50M deal, Four-year, $75M deal
If Miami and Portland pass on matching these contracts, the Nets will have invested more than $100M in two 24-year-old guards who still have everything to prove. That’s a bold dice roll by new GM Sean Marks, but Brooklyn needs to take real free agent gambles in order to escape the purgatory the previous regime placed them within.
