Offseason Low Down: Chiefs Fantasy Preview
Chiefs Year in Review
2015 Pass Attempts Rank: 29th (473)
2015 Rush Attempts Rank: 12th (436)
2015 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 31st (955)
2015 Yards Per Play Rank: 12th (5.5)
This is a link to all of Silva’s Team Fantasy Previews.
Projected Starting Lineup
QB: Alex Smith
RB: Jamaal Charles
WR: Jeremy Maclin
WR: Albert Wilson
WR: Chris Conley
TE: Travis Kelce
LT: Eric Fisher
LG: Parker Ehinger
C: Mitch Morse
RG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif
RT: Mitchell Schwartz
Passing Game Outlook
Albeit utterly devoid of upside, Alex Smith has been a model of consistency since the Chiefs acquired him from San Francisco three years ago. His season-long fantasy finishes are QB13, QB19, and QB16 during that span with near-identical passing yards-per-game averages (220.9; 217.7; 217.9), TD-to-INT ratios (23:7; 18:6; 20:7), and touchdown rates (4.5%; 3.9%; 4.3%). The NFL’s most risk-averse passer, Smith has finished the last three seasons 29th, 37th, and 23rd in attempts of 20-plus yards. Although Smith is one of fantasy’s least-sexy quarterbacks, there is sneaky value in his stable weekly floor and cheap price tag. Smith finished as a top-20 fantasy quarterback in 13-of-16 weeks last season and was a top-15 finisher nine times. I’m not too embarrassed to admit that I won an MFL10 league with Smith and Peyton Manning as my quarterbacks last year. Smith’s scrambling game reached new heights in 2015, finishing fourth in the league in rushing yards (498) at the position. He goes undrafted in most re-draft leagues and routinely falls to the 16th round in best ball. While Smith’s game won’t win you many fantasy weeks, he won’t lose you many, either. Smith is always a viable pickup-and-play streamer.
Following a 2014 campaign in which Smith threw zero touchdowns to wide receivers, fantasy drafters were scared off of Jeremy Maclin to the point that his ADP dipped into the seventh round. Maclin proved a screaming bargain, parlaying the second highest target total of his career (124) into WR17 (non-PPR) and WR15 (PPR) finishes. Maclin commanded a 26.8% target share, better than locked-in WR1s A.J. Green (26.7%), Odell Beckham (25.7%), and Allen Robinson (25.1%). The Chiefs pass less and play slower than the Bengals, Giants, and Jaguars, but Maclin was his team’s passing-game centerpiece and will remain so in a Kansas City offense that may see an uptick in 2016 passing. As noted by Rich Hribar, the Chiefs’ pass-game volume is bound for positive regression after nursing run-dominated game scripts during last year’s 10-game winning streak. Whereas Smith averaged just 26 attempts per game during that 10-win run, he has averaged 32.8 attempts across his other 36 regular season games with the Chiefs. The prospective rise may be enhanced by Kansas City’s loss of difference-maker OLB Justin Houston, a reserve/PUP candidate after he underwent ACL/LCL surgery in February. If Maclin stays healthy this year, he won’t have trouble improving on last year’s target total. In 12-team leagues, I love drafting him on the third-/fourth-round turn.
Over the last two seasons under Andy Reid, the balanced, slow-paced Chiefs have ranked 29th and 31st in play volume and 28th and 29th in pass attempts. Last year’s offense funneled 76% of its targets to Maclin, tight ends, and running backs, leaving seven targets per game for the Chiefs’ complementary wideouts. Kansas City’s Nos. 2-4 wide receiver jobs look to be up for grabs again, with Albert Wilson, Chris Conley, Rod Streater, and Demarcus Robinson competing. Wilson is the incumbent starter and Robinson is a fourth-round rookie. Conley is the highest-ceiling option at 6-foot-2, 213 with 99th-percentile SPARQ athleticism. His role grew late last season, earning snap rates of 38%, 41%, 70%, and 60% in Kansas City’s final four games including the playoffs. Conley exceeded three targets in only one of those contests, however, and his vertical-oriented skill set is a questionable fit for Smith’s short-area passing style. This is still a battle worth monitoring in camp in case something happens to Maclin.
Regularly drafted ahead of Maclin last year, Travis Kelce and Maclin swapped ADPs this spring with Maclin almost never lasting beyond round four and Kelce now sliding into rounds six and seven. This looks like the year to pounce on Kelce based on the Chiefs’ probable pass-volume uptick and his lowered cost. Although Kelce is a dominant talent coming off back-to-back top-ten TE1 finishes, he has reached double-digit targets in just one game over the last two years and curiously ranked 13th among tight ends in red-zone targets (13) last season with a measly four looks inside the ten-yard line. The Chiefs’ front office is well aware of how good Kelce is, locking him into a five-year, $46 million extension shortly after last season. In order to become a truly elite fantasy tight end, Kelce will need the coaching staff to follow suit in dialing up more plays for him, and that expected team passing rise to come to fruition.
Running Game Outlook
Jamaal Charles looked poised for a potentially historic season before tearing his right ACL in Week 5 last year. His pace stats were 294 touches, 1,731 total yards, and 16 touchdowns in the initial five-game window, with only Devonta Freeman outscoring him in PPR to that point. Charles is now 29 years old, but it’s worth mentioning that he tore his left ACL in 2011 and rebounded to finish as the overall RB8 the next year. Exceptionally durable beyond the hard-luck ligament tears, Charles has played at least 15 games in six of his eight NFL seasons while averaging at least five yards per carry in eight straight years. In fact, Charles’ career YPC of 5.47 currently ranks second in NFL history among running backs behind Marion Motley. While all signs point to Charles being near or at full health by Week 1, it’s worth wondering if the Chiefs will reduce his workload in order to get Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware more involved. The coaching staff envisions West as a sort of Charles lite, whereas hammerback Ware may pose a threat for goal-line carries. I’m still inclined to bet on Charles, who is a Hall of Fame talent in my mind. He’s one of my favorite second-round running back picks.
One reason to buy into the narrative Charles could lose work to West and Ware is that the Chiefs’ results got better after Charles’ ACL tear. Whereas Kansas City went 1-4 and averaged 23.4 points per game with Charles healthy, the Chiefs improved to 10-1 and a 26.2-point average with West and Ware handling backfield duties. Both West and Ware were signed to identical two-year, $3.6 million extensions in late March, kicking onetime fantasy favorite Knile Davis to the curb. While West’s skill set is more similar to Charles’, early-down banger Ware outperformed him as a rusher and in scoring position last season and would be a preferred fantasy pickup if Charles missed more time. Despite last year’s productivity, don’t expect West or Ware to offer standalone value barring another Charles injury this season.
2016 Vegas Win Total
The Chiefs have gone 11-5, 9-7, and 11-5 through three seasons of Andy Reid, winning one playoff game and losing another 45-44. At 9.0 games, their 2016 Win Total is conservative, even if it is tied with Dallas and Minnesota for ninth highest in the league. Working in Kansas City’s favor is a schedule that Warren Sharp evaluated as the NFL’s eighth softest and an AFC West where reigning division champion Denver seems primed for a step back. The Chiefs’ out-of-division slate consists of the lowly South divisions, Jets (home), and Steelers (away). While the potentially-lengthy absence of Houston is a major concern, the arrow is teetering up on Kansas City’s offense and the Chiefs’ other defensive personnel is at worst above average. I’m taking the over on a team I believe is a better bet for ten victories than eight.
