Waiver Wired: Waiver Wired: Nola's Lows
I’m taking some time off this week around the holiday, so we’ll get straight to the names here. That’s what you’re really here for anyway, right? Things will be back to normal during the All-Star break next week. Boy, this season is flying by at the pace of a Noah Syndergaard fastball. For the record, I didn’t include Tyler Glasnow and Kelvin Herrera in this week’s column because they are already owned in more than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. If they are still out there in your league, go crazy.
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MIXED LEAGUES
Brandon McCarthy SP, Dodgers (Yahoo: 35 percent owned)
McCarthy was the topic in this week’s Rotoworld Roundtable, so feel free to check that out if you want to hear more, but I was intrigued by what I see in his return from Tommy John surgery on Sunday against the Rockies. Throwing an efficient 72 pitches over five scoreless innings, he gave up just two hits and one walk while striking out eight batters. According to Brooks Baseball, he topped out at 95.3 mph with his fastball, which is nice to see. He also induced 11 swings and misses. He could prove to be an excellent value in the second half, so he’s well worth picking up where he’s still available. For what it’s worth, I’d prefer him over his teammate Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Brandon Maurer RP, Padres (Yahoo: 25 percent owned)
After the Padres did the smart thing and cashed in on Fernando Rodney’s All-Star first half, the assumption was that Ryan Buchter would get the first crack at replacing him in the closer role. Padres manger Andy Green decided to go in a different direction, as Maurer got the nod instead. And while his 5.67 ERA doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, the hard-throwing right-hander fits the mold of what managers look for in a closer. While Maurer has had issues with walks (4.08 BB/9) and home runs (1.36 HR/9) this season, he has fanned 49 batters in 39 2/3 innings. He’s no sure thing to keep the job, but anybody getting the bulk of the chances needs to be owned in all formats.
Javier Baez 2B/3B/SS, Cubs (Yahoo: 35 percent owned)
Baez’s strikeouts are down from the ridiculous totals during his previous stints in the majors in 2013 and 2014, but he’s still overly aggressive at the plate. Among players with at least 200 plate appearances, only Brandon Phillips and Salvador Perez have swung more often at pitches outside the strike zone. He has managed to provide value this season despite the flawed approach, batting .272 with nine homers and a .773 OPS while also stealing five bases. The bulk of his production came last month as he logged regular playing time at third base. The Cubs reportedly plan to keep him through the trade deadline, so I expect Joe Maddon to continue to find ways to play him, even after Jorge Soler comes back. Heck, at this point, perhaps Soler ends up being the trade chip. Baez’s power/speed combo and multi-position eligibility should be enough to get him on most fantasy rosters at this point.
C.J. Cron 1B, Angels (Yahoo: 25 percent owned)
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Cron probably had a better week than you. The 26-year-old is 12-for-28 (.429) with five home runs, two doubles, and 13 RBI over his last six games. This was after he had just six homers through his first 69 games this season. Still, he was doing some nice things even before the recent explosion. Most notably, he has cut down significantly on his strikeout rate while showing more patience at the plate. His walk rate is still below the league average, but he’s making progress. According to our friend Eno Sarris from FanGraphs, Cron is among the league leaders in OPS on pitches inside the strike zone. Look at that list. He’s among some impressive company. Don’t look for many weeks like we just saw. That’s setting an impossibly high bar, but he’s mixed league-relevant for sure.
Aaron Nola SP, Phillies (Yahoo: 49 percent owned)
Well, that escalated quickly. After posting a 3.12 ERA through his first 25 starts in the majors, Nola has imploded to the tune of a 13.50 ERA over his last five starts. His season ERA has jumped from 2.65 to 4.69 during that time. Yikes. While the 23-year-old gave up five runs in his most recent start on Saturday against the Royals, let’s focus on the positives here. Nola retired the final 10 batters he faced while racking up six strikeouts along the way. Batters are making harder contact against him recently, but we can’t expect a .515 BABIP to continue. The Phillies elected to skip his final start before the All-Star break, which isn’t the worst idea given that he was set to pitch in Coors Field. The plan calls for him to throw a simulated game instead and “clear his head” before the second half. Nola’s velocity has been fine during this recent funk and you have to think it’s just a matter of time before his trademark command returns. He’s being dropped in a lot of leagues, but I think this is a prime opportunity to pounce.
Randal Grichuk OF, Cardinals (Yahoo: 24 percent owned)
Grichuk was a guy I liked a lot coming into the spring, but he was demoted to the minors last month after batting just .206 with eight homers and a .668 OPS. This included an ugly 54/18 K/BB ratio over 225 plate appearances. Plate discipline was still an issue for him during his time with Triple-A, but he amassed five homers and three doubles over 15 games before Brandon Moss’ ankle injury brought him back this week. Kolten Wong figures to find himself back at second base as the Cardinals deal with some injuries in their infield, so Grichuk should have an opportunity earn his way back on the fantasy map. I’m not banking on batting average help here, but there’s still enough power upside to take a chance on him.
Brandon Kintzler RP, Twins (Yahoo: 25 percent owned)
I didn’t mention Kintzler with much enthusiasm a month ago, but he has quietly been pretty good as the Twins’ closer, successfully converting each of his first four save chances dating back to June 8. The 31-year-old now owns a 2.19 ERA through 25 appearances this season. While he has only struck out 16 batters in 24 2/3 innings while giving up four home runs, he’s limiting walks and owns a ground ball percentage of 65 percent. Trevor May was activated from the disabled list this week and still appears to be the long-term option at closer for Minnesota, but Kintzler needs to be owned as long as he’s getting chances.
Cameron Maybin OF, Tigers (Yahoo: 46 percent owned)
Injuries have limited Maybin to 45 games during the first half, but he has done nothing but produce when on the field, batting .352/.410/.430 with eight extra-base hits (including two homers), 24 RBI, nine stolen bases, and 32 runs scored over 184 plate appearances. He’s sporting a .409 BABIP right now, which isn’t going to continue, but he’s making contact more often than ever before and hitting second in the Tigers’ lineup in recent days. The power upside might be limited, but he’s capable of helping in multiple categories. He should be owned in most formats as long as he’s healthy.
Ryan Zimmerman 1B, Nationals (Yahoo: 30 percent owned)
I realize that Zimmerman isn’t an exciting name in fantasy leagues these days. He’s hitting just .221 with 12 homers and a .686 OPS through 74 games this season. According to FanGraphs, he’s swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone than ever before while posting his lowest contact rate. That’s an intuitive combination, but not an encouraging one. Still, when he’s making contact, he’s crushing the ball. His average exit velocity sits among the league leaders, especially when you adjust for launch angle between 10 and 30 degrees (thanks again to Eno), which appears to be the sweet spot. The injury risk is always present with him, but he could have some better fortune the rest of the way.
Wei-Yin Chen SP, Marlins (Yahoo: 47 percent owned)
Chen was someone I was targeting in a lot of leagues coming into the year, as I was optimistic about the league switch after signing a five-year, $80 million deal with the Marlins. He was already a pretty useful start during his time in Baltimore, especially over the last two seasons. Things haven’t gone according to plan so far. The southpaw owns a disappointing 4.83 ERA over 17 starts. He’s already given up 17 homers and has had a handful of disaster outings. Still, the peripherals are right in line with what we’ve seen in the past and he remains in a good situation for fantasy value. Like Nola above, this is more of a shallow league target, but I could see giving him a chance if someone gave up on him.
Shopping at the five-and-dime:
(Players owned in under 10 percent of Yahoo leagues)
Max Kepler OF, Twins (Yahoo: 8 percent owned)
Byron Buxton has received most of the attention in the Twins’ outfield, but Kepler has quietly been more useful for fantasy purposes this season. Since returning from the minors last month, the German native is hitting .252 with 15 extra-base hits (including six homers) and an .813 OPS across 33 games. The 23-year-old also has 26 RBI, two steals, and 16 runs scored in that time, so he’s helping across the board. While Kepler is striking out more often than you’d like to see, his power has been surprising and he’s also taking his walks. I think we’ll see the batting average improve as he gets more experience, but his pop and speed should help in deeper formats in the meantime.
Seth Smith OF, Mariners (Yahoo: 9 percent owned)
After being fairly quiet with the bat for most of May and June, Smith charged into July with home runs in four straight games. He homered again on Wednesday against the Astros. The 33-year-old usually sits against southpaws, but he’s batting .290/.380/.485 with 11 home runs in 234 plate appearances against right-handers this season. He’s projected to face three straight right-handed starters as the Mariners finish up the first half this weekend against the Royals. Things could change, but Chris Young currently lines up for Sunday. Yes, the same guy who has allowed an unfathomable 26 home runs in 60 innings this season. You know what to do.