Offseason Beat: Free Agency Winners and Losers
Just when you thought the free agency madness was slowing down, Dwyane Wade announced on Wednesday night that he has agreed to join the Bulls after 13 years in Miami. Wade was basically the last major domino to fall since we know LeBron James is re-signing in Cleveland, so I thought it would be fun to take an early look at the winners and losers of free agency from a fantasy perspective.
To be clear, players that will be in similar situations as last season such as DeMar DeRozan, Nicolas Batum, Bradley Beal and Andre Drummond won’t be included. I’m also going to ignore minor role players who won’t impact most fantasy leagues. Let’s start things off with the winners…
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Winners
Kevin Durant– Ryan Knaus analyzed Durant’s move to Golden State in his article on Wednesday which you can check out by clicking here, but I might as well add some thoughts on the biggest story of the offseason. It’s true that Durant could lose a few shots playing alongside Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, but I’d also expect to see an improved field goal percentage, more 3-point attempts and fewer turnovers. Durant was the No. 2 player in standard leagues last season, and while I don’t see him catching up to Curry at No. 1, I doubt that anyone else will challenge those two at the top. However, I am expecting a lot of blowouts next season because this team is just insane now, so Durant’s minutes could take a slight hit.
Harrison Barnes– The 24-year-old forward has been living in the shadows of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson for four seasons, but he will finally have the chance to be a go-to player on offense in Dallas. Barnes had just a 15.9 usage rate in Golden State to go with averages of 11.7 points, 4.9 boards, 1.8 assists, 0.6 steals and 1.2 3-pointers, but he should be able to score in the uppers teens with the Mavs and we know he’s going to get all the minutes he can handle at the three and as a small-ball four. As brutal as he looked in the NBA Finals, Barnes may have more to gain this season than any other player and he should be a nice target in the middle rounds of standard leagues.
Jeremy Lin– Linsanity is officially back in New York and he’s fully expected to be the starting point guard for the Nets. Lin posted respectable averages of 11.7 points, 3.2 boards, 3.0 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.0 3-pointers in a backup role for the Hornets last season, but he could be the No. 2 option on offense behind Brook Lopez in Brooklyn. We know that head coach Kenny Atkinson is a huge Lin fan, but keep in mind that the Nets will be one of the worst teams in the league and he could end up losing playing time to guys like Isaiah Whitehead and Caris LeVert as the season progresses. With that said, I’ll be happy to take him if he’s still available in the later rounds.
Bismack Biyombo– The Magic reportedly signed Biyombo with the intention to start him next to Serge Ibaka, which would make some sense because they’re paying him $70 million over four years and Nikola Vucevic might be on the trade block. If this report is true and Biyombo opens the season as the starting center, he has the potential to be near the top of the league in rebounds and blocks. In 22 starts last season, Biyombo averaged 7.2 points, 12.2 rebounds and 2.0 blocks in 29.8 minutes, shooting 54.8 percent from the field and 59.5 percent from the line. I won’t be targeting Biyombo too aggressively in standard leagues, but that could change if Orlando decides to trade Vucevic.
Dwight Howard– He was miserable in Houston and had arguably the worst season of his career, averaging 13.7 points, 11.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks on 62.0 percent shooting from the field and 48.9 percent from the line. He only attempted 8.5 FGs per game and was frustrated about his lack of touches, but that shouldn’t be an issue in Atlanta as he tries to fill the void left by Al Horford. Howard was just a top-90 player in standard leagues last season, and while I’m not encouraging you to draft a 30-year-old big man with bad knees and an ailing back, I still expect a much better campaign from him in Atlanta. Also, you should only consider drafting D12 if you’re punting free throws.
Ryan Anderon- Two words: Mike D’Antoni. We know that the Rockets are going to play at a blistering pace with D’Antoni calling the shots, and Anderson is an ideal fit for his system. He has an easy path to minutes as the starting four in Houston with both Donatas Motiejunas and Terrence Jones hitting free agency, and we know that he will have the green light from deep. Anderson was a top-70 player in standard leagues for the Pelicans last season, but he should easily beat that in Houston. He does have some durability concerns, so I’d recommend waiting until the late middle rounds before drafting him.
Joakim Noah– Chicago’s frontcourt was simply too crowded last season and Noah obviously wasn’t too thrilled about coming off the bench. Noah will be the starting center in New York, and while his minutes might be capped in the lowers 30s due to durability concerns, he has nowhere to go but up. Regardless, it’s best to wait until the later rounds before drafting him since he’s coming off shoulder surgery.
Al Horford– Boston doesn’t really have any aggressive scorers other than Isaiah Thomas, and considering how much they’re paying Horford, it’s clear that the big man will be a focal point of the offense. Horford was a top-20 player in standard leagues last season with averages of 15.2 points, 7.3 boards, 3.2 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.5 blocks, and he also added a 3-point shot to his game and hit 88 treys on the season. He also avoided any major injuries for the second consecutive season, so things are still looking up for him as he heads to Boston.
Luol Deng– He was the fourth option on offense in Miami last season, but he thrived after the all-star break once he was moved to power forward. He should see a lot of minutes at both the three and four in Los Angeles, especially while Brandon Ingram adjusts to the NBA. It would be smart to wait until the later rounds to draft Deng, but selling high before the All-Star break would make sense because the Lakers will probably try to give their younger guys more run as the season progresses.
Losers
Pau Gasol– He just turned 36 on Wednesday and is now going to play for a coach in Gregg Popovich who will be adamant about limiting his minutes to the upper 20s with some maintenance days. Gasol returned second-round value in Chicago last season, but most fantasy owners will now want to wait until the fourth round before drafting the skilled big man. If Tim Duncan returns and Boban Marjanovic is retained in restricted free agency, that would also hurt Gasol’s outlook.
Ish Smith– He had no competition for minutes in Philly last season and had the best stretch of his career, posting averages of 14.7 points, 7.0 assists, 4.3 boards, 1.3 steals and 0.9 treys on 40.5 percent shooting from the floor. Not only is he a questionable fit in Detroit due to his shaky jumper, but he’s also going to be the backup behind Reggie Jackson which means he will be lucky to see minutes in the lower 20s. Standard league owners should be able to do better. It was fun while it lasted, Ish.
Al Jefferson– The Hornets limited his minutes last season after he returned from knee surgery, but his role likely won’t grow in Indiana as he is expected to be the backup center behind Myles Turner. The Pacers want to run next season which makes the Jefferson signing a little puzzling, but he will still be a nice option to bring off the bench to give the second unit a scoring punch. He only averaged 12.0 points, 6.4 boards and 0.9 blocks last season, so it’s best to let somebody else take a chance on the 31-year-old big man.
Ian Mahinmi– He was such a nice surprise as the starting center in Indiana last season, averaging 9.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.9 steals and 1.1 blocks in 25.6 minutes. Unfortunately for Mahinmi, he’s going to be joining a crowded frontcourt in Washington and is expected to be the backup center behind Marcin Gortat. He won’t be worth drafting in standard leagues while Gortat is still around.
Dwyane Wade– This one is pretty obvious. Wade had a 31.5 usage rate in Miami with averages of 19.0 points, 4.6 assists, 4.1 boards and 1.1 steals, but he’s going to be 35 in January and will be playing next to two ball-dominant guards in Jimmy Butler and Rajon Rondo. Wade barely cracked the top 100 in standard leagues last season and Father Time is slowly catching up with him, so he won’t be a recommended target in fantasy drafts next season. On the other hand, Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow just gained a ton of value with Wade’s decision to move on, but we’ll have plenty of time to talk about those two guys this offseason.
Rajon Rondo– Like I said before, Rondo will now have to share the ball with Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler in Chicago, and he’s also a poor fit considering all three of these guys aren’t great shooters. The Kings led the league in pace last season while the Bulls finished 13th, so there’s just no way that he will average 11.7 assists again. You shouldn’t even look in his direction until the middle rounds, and keep in mind that he’s going to hurt your free throw percentage as well.
Cole Aldrich– I was hoping that he would land a starting role this summer, but unfortunately he’s going to be the backup center behind Karl-Anthony Towns in Minnesota. He’s probably going to be looking at minutes in the teens, so as much as I love the deal for the Wolves, I don’t like Aldrich’s fantasy outlook at all.
Chandler Parsons– He was the focal point of Dallas’ offense after the All-Star break last season, and while the Grizzlies will likely play at a similar pace as the Mavs, Parsons will inevitably lose touches playing beside Mike Conley, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. While he does have top-40 upside, he’s coming off yet another knee surgery and may be a little more cautious now that he has his max deal. It would be wise to wait until the middle rounds before drafting him.
I tried to be as brief as possible since there is just so much to talk about right now, so if you guys have any questions please don’t hesitate to shoot me an email or tweet!